Table of Contents:
BTC Contract Liquidation Chart, Risk Control Position Reference;
Altcoin Index Continues to Rebound, Altcoin Season Approaches Risk Area;
Token Large Unlock Data Forecast.
Fundamental Hotspot Interpretation: Non-Farm Payroll Super Week Approaches, Federal Reserve Officials Speak Intensively.
6.BTC Contract Liquidation Chart, Risk Control Position Reference
According to the latest contract data, if the BTC price breaks above $98,000, approximately $1.345 billion in short positions will be liquidated;
If the BTC price falls below $94,000, approximately $10.8 million in long positions will be liquidated.
7. Altcoin Index Continues to Rebound, Altcoin Season Approaches Risk Area.
The logic of the altcoin index is that if 75% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization outperform BTC in the past 90 days, it indicates an altcoin season. Currently, it has reached 80, and caution is advised as it approaches the risk zone. The previous high was 85, and the one before that reached 98.
In the past three months, the top 50 by market capitalization saw XLM rise approximately 500%, ranking first at the beginning, with a maximum increase of 740% since early August. HBAR has now risen to the top in terms of increase today. Recently, established mainstream coins have performed well, with XRP returning to the third position by market capitalization yesterday, continuing to rise to $2.87+ in the evening, surpassing SOL. XRP is also the older brother of XLM, and its overall increase is among the top three.
8. Token Large Unlock Data Forecast:
Data shows that tokens such as TAIKO, ADA, and ENA will experience significant unlocks next week, including:
Taiko (TAIKO) will unlock approximately 9.29 million tokens at 8 PM Singapore time on December 5, accounting for 11.38% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $20.9 million;
Cardano (ADA) will unlock approximately 18.53 million tokens at 8 AM Singapore time on December 6, accounting for 0.05% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $19.8 million;
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 12.86 million tokens at 3 PM Singapore time on December 4, accounting for 0.45% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $10.5 million.
This week, attention should be paid to the negative effects of these token unlocks, avoiding spot trading and seeking short opportunities in contracts. Among them, TAIKO's unlock* circulating supply ratio and scale* are relatively large, warranting extra attention.
- Hotspot Interpretation: Non-Farm Payroll Super Week Approaches, Federal Reserve Officials Speak Intensively
The recently concluded U.S. election month has seen the impact of Trump's return to the White House considered a key driver of global market trends. The S&P 500 index has risen over 25% in the past 11 months, with the "Trump trade" boosting U.S. stock gains.
This week marks the arrival of the "Super Week," where U.S. labor market data, especially Friday's non-farm payroll report, will significantly impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut plans, with numerous Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak. In recent weeks, investors have focused on changes in Trump's economic policies and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Recently, expectations for a rate cut in December have warmed, but the long-term path for easing remains challenging. The number of new jobs in October fell sharply, raising concerns about the deterioration of the job market. The industry expects 195,000 new jobs in November, but the unemployment rate may rise to 4.2%. Employment data can more clearly reflect fundamental trends, and there is much debate in the market regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. In the coming week, Federal Reserve officials will speak intensively, with Powell's remarks being closely watched. Most officials believe that a rapid pace of rate cuts is difficult to sustain, and Powell has previously stated that there is no need to rush into rate cuts. Different institutions and analysts have varying expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
We believe that the current market is influenced by both political and economic factors. The potential impact of Trump's policies has drawn market attention, while the rise in U.S. stocks reflects investor optimism. However, labor market data has become the focal point due to its direct correlation with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The performance of the non-farm payroll report will determine the likelihood and pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The recent warming of expectations for a December rate cut, alongside a long-term cautious attitude, reflects the market's complex judgment regarding short-term economic stimulus and long-term inflation risks. The uncertainty of employment data has increased market tension, and the potential rise in the unemployment rate casts a shadow over the economic outlook. The speeches and attitudes of Federal Reserve officials will significantly guide market expectations. The divergence among different institutions and analysts indicates considerable uncertainty regarding future economic trends and policy directions.
The cryptocurrency market will also be deeply affected by macroeconomic data and monetary policy. If expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut warm in the near term, it may lead to more funds flowing out of traditional financial markets in search of higher-yield investment opportunities. Some funds may flow into the cryptocurrency market, driving up cryptocurrency prices, as rate cuts typically increase market liquidity. However, if the Federal Reserve's path to easing proves difficult in the long term, this may suppress large-scale inflows into the cryptocurrency market, as investors may adopt a cautious attitude towards the overall expansion of financial markets and the supply of funds. The performance of employment data will also indirectly affect the cryptocurrency market. Strong employment data may enhance market confidence in the economy, reducing demand for risk assets (including cryptocurrencies); conversely, poor employment data may raise concerns about economic recession, prompting investors to seek cryptocurrencies and other alternative assets as a hedge or store of value. However, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency market also has its own independent operating logic, and its prices are more significantly influenced by unique factors such as technological development, regulatory policies, and market sentiment. The correlation with traditional financial markets is not absolutely direct and linear, so these influences may be indirect and carry a degree of uncertainty.
Written by: Old Li Mortar
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