Table of Contents:

1. Review and Technical Analysis of BTC's Weekly Performance;

2. Overview of the Crypto Market, Quick Read on Weekly Popular Coins' Fluctuations/Fund Flows;

3. Inflow and Outflow of Spot ETF Funds, Inflow Scale Sets Monthly Record;

4. On-Site BTC Balance Hits New Historical Low, Only Three Exchanges Have Sufficient Reserves;

5. BTC Contract Weighted Funding Rate Declines, but Remains at a Medium-High Level;

1. Review and Technical Analysis of BTC's Weekly Performance:

Last week, BTC exhibited a volatile trend, initially falling and then rising, dropping from $99,000 to around $90,866, aligning with our previous prediction that the support level was below $91,000 based on chip distribution. It then rebounded to a high of around $98,713 before retreating again.

The trend indicator on the 4-hour level switched signals twice, first turning bearish after breaking below $95,000, and then turning bullish again as the price rebounded to $97,000. This confirms that the market is oscillating within the $91,000-$99,000 range, without showing a continuation of the trend. The daily chart still maintains a death cross, with short-term support continuing to reference below $91,000, and mid-term support around $87,000 and $85,000. Short-term resistance above is referenced at the recent high of around $99,588 and the historical peak.

2. Overview of the Crypto Market, Quick Read on Weekly Popular Coins' Fluctuations/Fund Flows

In the past week, the crypto market, categorized by concept sectors, saw significant fund inflows concentrated in major areas such as the Arbitrum ecosystem, Solana ecosystem, Optimism ecosystem, and Ethereum ecosystem, with the top three sectors each exceeding $1.3 billion in scale. The Ethereum ecosystem and Avalanche ecosystem saw net inflows of over $400 million. In the past week, many coins in these concept sectors experienced significant rotational increases, such as VIRTUAL and ENS tokens.

Additionally, it is important to note that the primary reason for the substantial net inflows in the top three concept sectors was the large issuance of $1 billion in USDC stablecoins. Excluding this impact, there was still a net inflow of around $300-400 million, keeping it among the top rankings.

3. Inflow and Outflow of Spot ETF Funds.

The inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs has surged dramatically, reaching $6.5 billion in a single month, setting a new historical peak that far exceeds previous monthly records. The continuous rise in Bitcoin prices has successfully attracted a large number of investors. Particularly on Wall Street, where Bitcoin prices have repeatedly hit new highs, investors in Bitcoin ETFs have all reaped substantial profits. With the $100,000 price level now in sight, market enthusiasm continues to rise unabated, and institutional investors who have gained huge returns this year may further increase their Bitcoin allocation next year.

Data shows that the total on-chain holdings of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have reached approximately 1.132 million BTC, accounting for over 5.7% of the current BTC supply, with the on-chain holdings valued at about $103.157 billion.

The surge in fund inflows and the increase in holdings indicate a strong demand for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the market. The continuous price rise has attracted more investors, especially in the financial core area of Wall Street, reflecting an increased market confidence in Bitcoin. The satisfaction and returns for risk managers indicate that their decisions have received positive feedback from the market. The breakthrough in holdings and the increase in value further reflect the market's activity level and the importance investors place on it.

4. On-Site BTC Balance Hits New Historical Low, Only Three Exchanges Have Sufficient Reserves to Meet Buyer Demand.

Data shows that the Bitcoin balance in cryptocurrency exchanges has dropped to a historical low, decreasing by over 126,000 BTC in the past month. The number of Bitcoins available for purchase has sharply declined, indicating that Bitcoin directly accessible on exchanges has become extremely scarce, which may impact trading activity and prices. The current situation is in stark contrast to the trend seen mid-year, when a sudden influx temporarily replenished exchange reserves. However, this time, there has been no such inventory growth, further exacerbating the tightening supply situation. The mid-year situation contrasts sharply with the current one, and the current supply tightness may lead to significant changes in the market's supply-demand balance.

The crypto market, led by Bitcoin, is being driven by favorable factors, suggesting potential for continued growth in the coming year. On-chain analysis indicates that long-term holders are typically seen as a stabilizing force in the market, firmly holding their positions, which limits Bitcoin inflows to exchanges and reduces liquidity. Favorable catalysts bring hope for market growth, but the steadfast holding behavior of long-term holders has somewhat affected market liquidity.

Currently, only three major exchanges (Bitfinex, Binance, and Coinbase) claim to have sufficient Bitcoin reserves to meet buyer demand. Smaller exchanges are facing increasingly severe challenges in maintaining liquidity, which may lead to more volatile price fluctuations. The relative advantages of major exchanges and the challenges faced by smaller exchanges may change the trading landscape in the market, subsequently affecting price volatility.

5. BTC Contract Weighted Funding Rate Declines, but Remains at a Medium-High Level.

According to contract data, since September 14, the BTC contract funding rate has maintained a positive level, indicating a long position over short, dropping from a level of 0.05% in mid-November to the current level of 0.02%, which is a decline compared to earlier but still at a medium-high level. This suggests that market FOMO sentiment has slightly decreased, and the funding rate is gradually moving towards a healthier state. On the other hand, due to recent fluctuations in BTC prices, some speculative funds have shifted to hot altcoins, and the gradual involvement of previous short arbitrage funds has also played a role in adjusting the rate.

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