Polymarket has rapidly risen to prominence due to the election frenzy and the trading appeal of non-political events, but its future development still depends on regulatory compliance and market diversification.

Written by: @mattsolomon

Translation: Plain Language Blockchain

How did Polymarket turn election predictions into a billion-dollar bet? @animocaresearch's latest report provides some analysis, summarized below.

1. What is Polymarket?

@Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform where users can trade the outcomes of future events.

Unlike traditional gambling, Polymarket allows participants to buy and sell shares on whether a certain event will occur, with the price of "YES" shares reflecting the market consensus on the probability of that event happening.

• Prediction mechanism: Transactions are conducted peer-to-peer, with real-time pricing based on user orders.
• Token usage: Transactions use USDC, and ERC-1155 Tokens represent predictions.

2. Polymarket's popularity and influence have surged

Since its establishment in 2020, Polymarket has experienced explosive growth, especially during the U.S. election cycle:

• User engagement: In October 2024 alone, over 300,000 new users joined.
• Public attention: Featured in major media outlets like The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg, even mentioned by figures like Trump.
• Traffic: October traffic reached 35 million visits, nearing top gambling websites.

Trading volume insights Polymarket's trading volume has skyrocketed: • Trading volume surge: From $40 million in April 2024 to $2.5 billion in October. • Open interest: Increased from $20 million to $400 million, comparable to mainstream decentralized trading platforms (DEX) like SushiSwap. • Event focus: While the election market dominates, non-election events like sports have also attracted significant trading activity.

3. The founder's story

Polymarket's founder Shayne Coplan has an intriguing background:

• Early start: Began mining Bitcoin at 15 in New York and invested in Ethereum at 16.
• Entrepreneurial journey: Dropped out of New York University in 2017 to focus on Web3 projects and founded Polymarket in 2020.
• Leadership: Guided the company through regulatory challenges and is nearing a billion-dollar valuation with recent funding.

4. Is Polymarket a fleeting election phenomenon, or will it endure?

Despite its growth being closely tied to the U.S. elections:

• Beyond elections: A large number of users are participating in trading non-political events, indicating broader appeal.
• Regulatory compliance: Successfully addressing regulatory challenges may mean continued operation.
• Community and media: It has integrated into media consumption habits, suggesting potential for long-term existence.

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