Polymarket has rapidly risen to prominence due to the election frenzy and the trading appeal of non-political events, but its future development still depends on regulatory compliance and market diversification.
Author: @mattsolomon
Translation: Blockchain in Plain Language
How did Polymarket turn election predictions into a billion-dollar bet? @animocaresearch's latest report provides some analysis, summarized below.
1. What is Polymarket?
@Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform where users can trade the outcomes of future events.
Unlike traditional gambling, Polymarket allows participants to buy and sell shares on whether a certain event will occur, with the price of "YES" shares reflecting the market consensus on the probability of that event happening.
• Prediction Mechanism: Transactions are conducted peer-to-peer, with real-time pricing based on user orders.
• Token Usage: Transactions use USDC, and ERC-1155 Tokens represent predictions.
2. Polymarket's Popularity and Influence Soars
Since its establishment in 2020, Polymarket has experienced explosive growth, especially during the U.S. election cycle:
• User Engagement: Over 300,000 new users joined in October 2024 alone.
• Public Attention: Featured in major media outlets like The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg, even mentioned by figures like Trump.
• Traffic: October traffic reached 35 million visits, nearing top gambling websites.
Trading Volume Insights: Polymarket's trading volume surged: • Trading Volume Surge: Jumped from $40 million in April 2024 to $2.5 billion in October. • Open Interest: Increased from $20 million to $400 million, comparable to mainstream decentralized trading platforms (DEX) like SushiSwap. • Event Focus: While the election market dominates, non-election events like sports also attract significant trading activity.
3. The Founder's Story
Polymarket's founder, Shayne Coplan, has an intriguing background:
• Early Start: Began mining Bitcoin at 15 in New York and invested in Ethereum at 16.
• Entrepreneurial Journey: Dropped out of New York University in 2017 to focus on Web3 projects and founded Polymarket in 2020.
• Leadership: Guided the company through regulatory challenges and is nearing a billion-dollar valuation with recent funding.
4. Is Polymarket a fleeting election phenomenon, or will it endure?
Despite its growth being closely tied to the U.S. elections:
• Beyond Elections: A large number of users are engaging in trading non-political events, indicating broader appeal.
• Regulatory Compliance: Successfully navigating regulatory challenges may mean continued operation.
• Community and Media: It has become integrated into media consumption habits, suggesting potential for long-term existence.
If you want to learn more, feel free to read @animocaresearch's report: https://bit.ly/4ePxTNw
So, in the end, do you think Polymarket will continue to thrive as a general prediction platform, or will it gradually lose influence after the elections? Feel free to leave a comment to discuss.
Article link: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/12/5566.html
Source: https://x.com/mattsolomon/status/1863093356282425766
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