Author: Socra, Golden Finance
On December 2, XRP's market capitalization surpassed USDT and Solana, ranking third in the cryptocurrency market capitalization list, and even surpassed Pinduoduo, rising to the 138th position among global mainstream assets.
As XRP's price surged past $2, it also set a new high since April 2021. Just before XRP's rise, Ripple CEO had stated that the Trump administration brought new hope to the cryptocurrency industry, and XRP might see a turning point. What surprised many investors was how quickly and dramatically this turning point came, with XRP's price increasing by 400% in the past month. However, with such a high increase, is it still possible to invest in XRP now?
1. XRP Blooms Again
At the beginning of November this year, XRP's price hovered around $0.5. However, after Ripple's CEO stated on November 10 that Trump might bring a turning point for XRP, the price of XRP truly skyrocketed.
According to CoinMarketcap data, as of the time of writing, XRP has risen from about $0.5 to around $2.5, with a staggering increase of 400% in nearly a month.
After reaching a peak of $1.966 during the bull market in April 2021, XRP has been in a continuous decline for the past three and a half years, with the lowest point dropping to $0.287.
The soaring price of XRP has also led to a significant increase in market capitalization, surpassing USDT and Solana with a market cap of nearly $140 billion, ranking third in the cryptocurrency market. It has also surpassed traditional companies like Pinduoduo and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, rising to the 136th position among global mainstream assets.
Additionally, data shows that XRP is actively traded on major exchanges. On the South Korean exchange Upbit, the 24-hour spot trading volume of XRP/KRW reached $3.8 billion, which is 11 times its BTC trading volume, exceeding Binance's XRP spot trading volume; on Bithumb, the 24-hour spot trading volume of XRP/KRW reached $1.2 billion, accounting for 32% of its total trading volume.
Moreover, xrpscan data indicates that the number of active XRP accounts grew by 100% in November, with on-chain indicators showing positive signs of recovery. The number of active accounts or unique senders on the XRP network increased from 15,592 on November 1 to 47,044 on November 16. The total number of active accounts in November doubled (100% increase) from around 12,000 to 25,000 this month, and the number of new accounts activated on the XRP ledger also significantly increased, indicating a large influx of new users onto the network.
Regarding XRP's performance, Ripple's CEO seemed to have anticipated it. He stated as early as the beginning of November that the Trump administration might bring new hope to the cryptocurrency industry, and XRP might see a turning point.
He explained that the Trump administration might change cryptocurrency regulations and resolve Ripple's long-standing legal disputes. He mentioned that since the SEC sued Ripple, XRP has faced many setbacks, but as adverse market factors fade, the situation is changing, and XRP's future prospects are becoming broader.
2. Multiple Positive Factors
1. Expectations of Policy Easing
The optimistic expectations of favorable cryptocurrency policies under Trump continue to bring confidence to the cryptocurrency industry, and Ripple's CEO also mentioned that Trump is likely to resolve Ripple's long-standing legal disputes.
Subsequently, reports revealed that Trump might meet with Ripple's CEO and other representatives from the cryptocurrency industry to discuss formulating U.S. cryptocurrency policies.
Companies like Ripple are vying for a seat on the cryptocurrency committee promised by Trump, seeking a voice in his planned U.S. policy reforms.
The former CFTC chairman also predicted that the SEC would drop its lawsuit against Ripple, indicating that a regulatory shift could trigger a significant rise in XRP.
2. Anticipation of XRP ETF Launch and Financial Products Listing
Ripple's CEO stated that an XRP ETF is destined to be launched.
Bloomberg ETF analysts pointed out that ETFs for altcoins like XRP may need to be approved by the end of 2025, and the new SEC leadership in 2025 may be more friendly towards cryptocurrencies, potentially allowing ETF products to include staking features.
Ripple is expected to receive approval from the New York Department of Financial Services to issue the stablecoin RLUSD, which may launch on December 4. If approved, Ripple will be able to legally offer RLUSD to the public, making it a major player in New York's regulated digital financial market and the broader stablecoin ecosystem, and this move will also put Ripple in direct competition with other well-known U.S. stablecoin issuers like Circle, Paxos, and Gemini.
WisdomTree will launch an XRP ETP on European exchanges, which will be 100% backed by spot XRP, with assets stored in cold wallets and adopting a dual custody model managed by regulated custodians.
Additionally, WisdomTree has registered an XRP ETF in Delaware, and 21Shares has submitted an S-1 form to the U.S. SEC to apply for an XRP ETF, while Bitwise has submitted an XRP ETF application in Delaware.
Grayscale has opened private placements for a trust fund that includes XRP and 16 other tokens to qualified investors. Robinhood's U.S. platform has re-listed SOL, ADA, and XRP, and added PEPE.
3. Whale Support
On South Korean exchanges Upbit and Bithumb, XRP trading volumes reached $3.8 billion and $1.2 billion, respectively. Analysis firm Scopescan indicated that South Korean investors might be the main driving force behind XRP's price increase.
At the beginning of November, 400 million XRP were unlocked from an unknown custody wallet, equivalent to about $203 million.
At the end of September, Ripple whales purchased over 470 million XRP within 10 days.
However, despite XRP's significant price increase and various positive factors, some analysts have raised warnings:
CryptoQuant analysts noted that XRP's open interest has risen by 37%, which could lead to a decline; the last similar event resulted in a 17% drop.
Other analyses suggest that the current target price for XRP may be between $1.95 and $2.05, but it is important to note that since November 16, XRP's price and trading volume have shown an inverse correlation, indicating that XRP is experiencing a distribution phase, and market traders may be looking to sell.
Conclusion
As an established project, it is not easy for XRP to explode again. The recent multiple positive factors surrounding it, whether in terms of policy regulation or the anticipation of financial products like ETFs, have given investors considerable expectations. However, the cryptocurrency market has a long-standing tradition of favoring new projects over old ones, and whether XRP can continue to grow stronger and achieve new glory remains to be seen over time.
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