Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Wenser (@wenser2010)
Latest data shows that XRP's market cap once surpassed $136.2 billion, overtaking USDT to reclaim the title of "third largest cryptocurrency by market cap," returning to levels seen before the 2020 SEC/Ripple lawsuit.
Previously, Odaily Planet Daily provided a detailed analysis of the "U.S. court ruling that Ripple did not violate federal securities laws" in August, as detailed in the article “XRP Surges Over 20%, Ripple's Another Milestone Victory Against SEC”. Nearly four months later, the price of XRP has surpassed $2.3, increasing nearly fourfold, and the market is optimistic about XRP's future performance.
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the recent developments and related information regarding Ripple and XRP for readers' reference.
Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Factors Combine to Drive XRP Market Cap Surge
According to data from Infinite Market Cap, with a market cap of $136.2 billion, XRP's market cap briefly surpassed China Life, ranking 139th among global assets; currently, its market cap has retreated to around $132.8 billion. Overall, the surge in XRP's market cap is primarily due to several favorable macro and micro factors:
Macroeconomic Factors: Trump's Election Expected to Help Resolve "XRP vs SEC Dispute"
With Trump's successful election as the new U.S. president, the long-standing debate of "Is XRP a security?" between Ripple and the SEC may soon reach a final ruling, as Trump, known as a "crypto-friendly president," is expected to play a positive role in the future development of the crypto industry.
At the same time, as an active participant in the U.S. presidential campaign, Ripple previously donated $45 million to PAC ahead of the 2024 election, making it one of the largest donors to Fairshake alongside cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase, Jump Crypto, and Andreessen Horowitz. Recently, it donated another $25 million to Fairshake, further demonstrating its strong ambition to influence crypto political leanings.
On the other hand, in the cryptocurrency advisory committee that Trump is preparing to establish, a series of cryptocurrency companies, including Circle, Ripple, Kraken, Coinbase, a16z, and Paradigm, are vying for relevant positions, seeking a voice in his planned U.S. policy reforms, which also lays the groundwork for XRP's recent good market performance.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has frequently spoken out, emphasizing the potential changes in cryptocurrency regulation under President Trump, mentioning, "Ripple and XRP may face a turning point, as the new pro-crypto regulatory shift is expected to bring new hope and potentially resolve years of legal disputes."
He further noted, "The SEC has been intervening in the cryptocurrency market, picking winners and losers for six years… and it has been four years since the SEC sued Ripple… Now, as these external (frankly unnatural and manipulative) market factors gradually disappear, we finally see the light at the end of the tunnel. The tide is turning, headwinds are becoming tailwinds, and for those of us who believe in XRP's future, the opportunities are immense." Moreover, in a previous interview, FOX Business reporter Liz Claman indirectly confirmed that he had met with Trump to discuss cryptocurrency-related topics.
In November, the SEC's lawsuit against Ripple progress was that "the Second Circuit Court of Appeals issued an order requiring the SEC's litigation brief to be submitted by January 15, 2025." Subsequently, Judge Phyllis Hamilton approved a final judgment on the resolved Ripple class action lawsuit and ordered a stay on the remaining unresolved lawsuits, a decision that shortened the class action timeline and paved the way for a trial starting on January 21, 2025. Additionally, current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler previously stated he might resign before or after Trump's inauguration, which also contributed to XRP's previous price increase.
Coincidentally, the day before January 21 is exactly the first day of Trump's presidency. Therefore, it can be said that Trump will play a "key role" in this "dispute between crypto institutions and regulators."
Microeconomic Factors: 1 Billion XRP Custodial Lock, Stablecoin Launch Imminent
From the perspective of the project's own development, XRP may also "bloom anew."
One of the important reasons directly driving the rise in XRP's price may be the "1 billion XRP tokens custodial lock" that occurred early this morning. According to WhaleAlert monitoring, at 2:21 AM today, Ripple re-locked 1 billion XRP in a custodial wallet, valued at approximately $1.546 billion. Previously, Ripple stated that it uses a custodial account system to provide transparency and certainty to the XRP market. The company locks a majority of its XRP holdings to ensure it does not flood the market and manipulate prices. However, the company also uses XRP in the custodial account to invest in and support projects within the Ripple ecosystem. Releasing 1 billion XRP tokens from the custodial account each month does not mean all will enter the market. Ripple may choose to sell some to institutions or retail investors, use some for its own purposes, or return some to new trusts.
Additionally, as a crypto payment company, Ripple plans to expand into the stablecoin sector. In mid-November, according to official news, Ripple announced the upcoming launch of the USD stablecoin Ripple USD (RLUSD), which is designed for enterprise use cases (such as payments) and focuses on stability, efficiency, and transparency, aimed at enhancing Ripple's cross-border payment solutions and meeting the growing demand for dollar-denominated transactions. There are reports that this stablecoin may launch on December 4.
Previously, Ripple has also been active in promoting industry collaboration. In October, digital asset infrastructure provider Ripple designated Uphold, Bitstamp, Bitso, MoonPay, Independent Reserve, CoinMENA, and Bullish as trading partners for the upcoming Ripple USD (RLUSD) stablecoin, with market makers B2C2 and Keyrock supporting its liquidity. Additionally, official news stated that crypto payment infrastructure company MoonPay had previously announced a partnership with Ripple to support users in purchasing, storing, and managing XRP using MoonPay accounts. In late November, Ripple also announced a partnership with Archax and UK asset management company ABRDN PLC, with plans to launch the first tokenized money market fund on the XRP Ledger.
Under a series of favorable news, Ripple and XRP are迎来“加密第二春”.
Moreover, the XRP ETF will also be a major focus in the crypto market moving forward, continuously attracting market attention.
Industry Insiders Express Optimism, Will XRP ETF Launch First?
As early as late October, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated that the XRP ETF is "inevitable." His main basis comes from the growing share of Bitcoin spot ETFs. According to latest data, the total on-chain holdings of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have surpassed 1.12 million BTC (approximately 1.128 million BTC), accounting for 5.7% of the current BTC supply; the on-chain holdings are valued at $10.89 billion.
At the same time, XRP has received strong support from cryptocurrency professionals across different fields, mainly reflected in the following aspects:
XRP ETF Registration Has Started: WisdomTree Takes the Lead, Followed by Bitwise, Canary, and 21Shares
At the end of November, Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett reported that global ETF provider WisdomTree has registered an XRP ETF in Delaware, USA. The company has confirmed that it is a legitimate filing, and it is reported that WisdomTree manages assets exceeding $100 billion.
Meanwhile, according to The ETF Store President Nate Geraci stated: "Currently, there are 3 ETF applications holding the third largest cryptocurrency asset XRP. Bitwise, Canary, and 21Shares have all submitted spot XRP ETFs. It is speculated that other issuers will also join in."
"Grayscale Select": XRP Has Now Joined the Crypto Portfolio
At the beginning of November, Grayscale officially announced that its XRP Trust Fund is now open to qualified accredited investors, providing an investment opportunity to access XRP. XRP is the core token of the distributed network XRP Ledger that supports cross-border payments. Subsequently, at the end of November, Grayscale further stated that it has opened private placements for 17 token trust funds, including XRP, to qualified accredited investors.
The results have proven that Grayscale's choice is very wise: statistics show that Grayscale's cryptocurrency holdings value significantly increased in November. According to data from Cryptorank, its cryptocurrency holdings' market cap grew by over 85% in the past month, primarily driven by tokens including XRP (which saw an increase of over 262% during the same period).
Asset Management Giant Bitwise Becomes Ripple's Partner
In November, Ripple announced that it will invest in Bitwise Physical XRP ETP, although the specific investment amount was not disclosed. It is understood that Bitwise Physical XRP ETP, previously known as "European XRP ETP," is part of Bitwise's suite of cryptocurrency asset funds.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated that the decision to invest in Bitwise funds aligns well with the growing interest in cryptocurrency-related exchange-traded products. Subsequently, Bitwise officially announced that the Bitwise Physical XRP ETP (GXRP) has an asset management scale exceeding $80 million, with Ripple as one of the investors. This product is listed on Deutsche Börse Xetra, allowing European investors to gain exposure to XRP through GXRP.
Industry Professionals Express Support: Solana, BNB, ADA, and Others Stand Up
Just today, Solana co-founder toly stated: "We need a national XRP reserve." This statement is also seen as a response to Trump's earlier emphasis on "establishing a national strategic reserve for Bitcoin."
At the end of November, CZ retweeted news stating that because XRP is not a security but a commodity under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission may abandon the Ripple case. This news originated from an interview with former CFTC Chairman Chris Giancarlo.
Previously, Cardano (ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson praised Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, calling him a "great CEO," and described their interaction as "highly collaborative," which sparked speculation that Cardano and Ripple might explore establishing a strategic partnership.
Data Perspective: Market Trading Active, Multiple Metrics Reach Historical Highs
From the market data perspective, XRP is also one of the leaders.
In the Korean market, Upbit's trading volume increased by over 100% within a week, with cryptocurrencies including XRP being the largest contributors. In the fourth quarter, XRP's trading volume reached $38.6 billion, far exceeding Bitcoin's trading volume of $30.1 billion.
In terms of price, XRP briefly surpassed 2.29 USDT today, reaching a new high since January 2018.
Additionally, in terms of contract data, according to Coinglass data, the total open interest for XRP futures contracts across the network is 1.739 billion ETH, approximately $4.051 billion, reaching a historical high, with a 24-hour increase of 20.34%. Among them, Bybit's XRP contract open interest is 548 million XRP (approximately $1.277 billion), ranking first, with a 24-hour increase of 19.13%.
In terms of trading volume, as XRP broke through $2, its 24-hour trading volume also exceeded $25 billion, currently reaching $25,338,798,676, with a trading volume to market cap ratio of 18.4%, indicating high trading activity relative to its market cap.
It is worth mentioning that due to various positive news, the number of posts related to XRP on platform X has reached 480,000, even surpassing the meme-rich DOGE-related content.
One of the content indicators on platform X
If all goes well, the XRP ETF may become the "third cryptocurrency ETF" in the U.S. market after the BTC ETF and ETH ETF.
Conclusion: What is the Future Direction of Ripple and XRP?
As XRP's market cap has returned to levels seen before the SEC/Ripple lawsuit, the "first case of crypto regulation" that originated in 2018 and has lasted for six years is about to reach its conclusion, and there are differing opinions in the market regarding the future of Ripple and XRP.
Previously, Yoshitaka Kitao, CEO of the large Japanese financial services institution SBI Holdings, stated that once the SEC issues are resolved, Ripple should prepare for an IPO as soon as possible. (Odaily Planet Daily notes: SBI Holdings has been collaborating with Ripple since 2017 to promote cross-border payment innovation. Kitao is a key figure in the Ripple-SBI partnership and joined Ripple's board in April 2019. His long-term support for Ripple and XRP dates back to 2017 when he predicted XRP as the global standard for digital currency, emphasizing its efficiency, low transaction costs, and scalability.) Although similar proposals have previously been shelved by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, they can also be seen as one of the possibilities for Ripple's future direction.
After all, with the further improvement of the cryptocurrency regulatory environment, more "cryptocurrency concept stocks" may land on the U.S. stock market. At that time, Ripple and XRP may welcome another wave of development peaks.
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