Master Discusses Hot Topics:
First, let's talk about the news this morning: Japan's DMM cryptocurrency exchange is about to be liquidated, which has created a bearish atmosphere of panic among many friends. But I want to tell everyone that the probability of Bitcoin dropping to 80,000 or 70,000 is always lower than the probability of it rising to 110,000.
Especially when we see the monthly line about to start— the next big bullish candle is right in front of us. Yes, 4-5 consecutive bullish days, is that abnormal? This is just the market gathering strength.
Looking back at the last bull market, Bitcoin almost broke 70,000, and many people thought it was going to crash. But from 36,000 to 70,000, everyone should remember: the starting point of this bull market was around 15,600, raising the base by 4 times. Don't just focus on the number "100,000"— for this bull market, 100,000 is just a new milestone, not worth making a fuss about.
Next, let's talk about the optimistic expectations for a "bull market in the next three years": some bloggers always think that a Republican administration will bring endless bull markets, but I dare say that the bull market cycle you see will far exceed three years.
If you want to "sustainably and steadily" profit in a bull market, you need to first understand that Bitcoin has a strict bull-bear cycle, with each bull market generally lasting 12-16 months, and 16 months is considered the limit. Don't focus on a "perpetual bull market"; holding onto spot for half a year can ultimately lead to being knocked back to square one by the market.
Speaking of future long cycles— the next Bitcoin halving is on April 17, 2028. Looking back from this point, a bear market cycle may start after April 2026, so everyone can remember this point and start preparing slowly.
Finally, regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, rest assured that by the end of 2024, the Federal Reserve will definitely announce a timeline for stopping interest rate cuts in 2026, or even starting to raise rates. This will gradually tighten the market's liquidity, which is not friendly for bulls.
Today is December 2nd, still in the bull market phase. I never consider myself very smart; in fact, all I can do is stand in an "environment that is relatively easy to succeed." Ultimately, the market will humble everyone. If this is your first time experiencing such a cycle, I can only tell you that the market tuition is not cheap.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes early Wednesday morning may trigger a short-term pullback, so Bitcoin could drop to around 93,800. If this pullback happens, congratulations, you can boldly execute the mid-line bottom-fishing plan according to my guidance.
Remember, the 4th and 5th of each month often see short-term declines, which is a little rule that many seasoned traders like, so if Bitcoin drops in the next few days, don't be afraid, act decisively!
Master Looks at Trends:
Resistance Levels Reference:
First Resistance Level: 98,750
Second Resistance Level: 98,100
Support Levels Reference:
First Support Level: 95,700
Second Support Level: 95,000
Today's Suggestions:
If the first support can maintain short-term stability, then the perspective of a rebound can be maintained; however, this range may also be broken, so the best short-term entry point can be set around the second support level of 95K.
Additionally, the 120-day moving average can be regarded as a phase support, maintaining the expectation of a rebound. As we have re-entered the high-pressure selling area, we expect to experience a certain range of consolidation, followed by a bottom formation and an increased probability of a rebound.
12.2 Master’s Segment Pre-Set:
Long Entry Reference: Enter long lightly in the 96,000-95,700 range; if it pulls back to the 95,300-95,000 range, enter long directly. Target: 97,000-98,100
Short Entry Reference: Not applicable
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