The bull market has entered its second phase, trading strategies and suggestions.
Make sure to seize the opportunities in this phase.
If you listened to my advice a few days ago, you should be very happy now.
A week ago, when most people were still saying that BTC would continue to bleed, I posted that the bull market would enter its second phase and that BTC's main position should be shifted to altcoins.
Four days ago, when most people were saying that BTC would adjust to 80,000 or 70,000, I posted not to wait for a waterfall; there wouldn't be a big waterfall.
Sometimes, I really wish my biggest label was that of a trading strategist. Why can I grasp this so accurately? Because my fundamental analysis principle is based on behavioral economics, which analyzes human behavior from the perspective of human nature.
Market conditions may change each time, but human nature never changes.
After a little bull run, let's talk about serious matters.
- The second phase does not mean a comprehensive altcoin market.
The second phase will see a general rise in altcoins. However, it will not be a comprehensive altcoin market. This means that most will rise somewhat, but it hasn't reached the stage of multiplying many times.
The general rise in altcoins is due to: the market has regained confidence, and users holding USDT are gradually starting to buy. For most altcoins, after more than half a year of decline, prices are already very low, and those who needed to cut losses have already done so, resulting in very little selling pressure. At this time, trapped funds want to buy at the bottom to lower their costs. Additionally, project teams will also want to collect low-priced chips.
However, a comprehensive altcoin market will not be initiated yet because:
Overall users still exhibit representative bias in behavioral economics, and it takes time for them to gradually let go. Moreover, from a funding perspective, the main funds in the second phase come from the entry of those who missed the initial opportunity. Therefore, it is relatively difficult for the market to initiate a comprehensive altcoin market. Furthermore, there are many trapped positions in most altcoins, which will lead to significant resistance at key levels.
This means that most altcoins will rise to a certain level and then enter a period of consolidation.
So the situation in the second phase is: a few leading coins will surge (over 10 times), a small proportion of altcoins will have decent gains (over 2 times), and most altcoins will see a general rise, along with a certain proportion of unfortunate altcoins.
- Operating strategies
The first strategy is to allocate equal positions in the sectors and coins you believe will rise. The benefit of this approach is that it is definitely not wrong. Because even if they do not rise now, when the third phase arrives, the sectors will rotate and will also rise.
The second strategy is to allocate more positions in sectors that you believe have a higher probability of rising. This is also my approach. However, the most challenging part is that you need to judge which sectors will be the first to be speculated on; this is a matter of probability.
I hope that during the bull market, everyone must remember one thing: in a bull market, you must hold on, you must hold on.
You might think that you heard this many times around March and April this year, only to end up in a mess. I can assure you that I have never said that. What I want to say is that different phases require different strategies; the strategy in the early bull market is to hold on, hold on, hold on.
- Promising sectors
From my personal perspective, there are three sectors I am optimistic about in this phase:
1) MeMe sector
I have mentioned this many times, and for stable large funds, I recommend PNUT and ACT.
I also have a portion of funds allocated to decent on-chain MeMe projects, which I will hold long-term; this carries higher risk, betting on a higher payoff.
2) BTC sector
Focus on ordi, sats, and pizza, among many others.
3) AI sector
I personally have positions in io and clore.
The BTC sector and AI sector still have a large number of projects that have not yet been listed, which should be listed during this market phase. Most of the articles I have written in recent months have been about these two sectors, and I will discuss them further when the time comes.
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