The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui who talks about coins, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. Welcome to all coin friends' attention and likes, and reject any market smoke screens.

As we are about to enter December, the issue of exchange rates will again attract everyone's attention. Just after Lao Cui mentioned the exchange rate issue, the ruble began a new round of sharp decline. This has caused difficulties for a group of users involved in Russian foreign trade, but let's not discuss topics outside the coin circle. Everyone just needs to remember that the appreciation of the US dollar is not particularly good for the coin circle. The overall settlement in the coin circle is still predominantly in US dollars. Although it allows everyone to conveniently convert other countries' currencies, the largest operating system is still settled in USDT. The appreciation of the US dollar can expand the profits in everyone's hands, but it also means the depreciation of the local currency. Currently, the performance of the CNY is relatively strong, at least depreciating slower than other currencies. Everyone should be clear that inflation and deflation are two different issues; although both represent economic downturns, the ways to resolve them are different. Speaking too far, returning to the coin circle, December's market will not see the same one-sided growth trend as in November; it will come to an end. There will be a growth period from before the interest rate cut to after the interest rate cut, and then everyone should prepare for the continuous arrival of short positions before Trump takes office. Be sure to prepare for risk control in advance.

There will be many factors that can influence the market trend in December. The issues currently exposed include the settlement of exchange rates and the large flow of funds in foreign trade. Additionally, the interest rate cut in December, along with the holiday habits in Europe and the US, will lead to a massive outflow of funds, compounded by various institutions' financial report issues in December, etc. A series of contradictions will basically accumulate throughout December. Setting aside the one-sided market trend of November, the volatility in December is likely to be the most unstable of the year. Moreover, with Trump taking office at the end of January, even if there is an interest rate cut in between, there will be a funding gap. Lao Cui's current estimate is that this round, taking advantage of the interest rate cut, could break through the previous high point and reach above the 100,000 mark. Therefore, the operational space during this gap will be very large, at least deeper than the current round of corrections. A market of 10,000 points is just a normal operational space for capital. Of course, this prediction is not meant to undermine the confidence of the bulls. Before the interest rate cut, the bulls still need to ambush in advance; the subsequent correction can only occur after the interest rate cut, and before that, the bulls will still dominate the trend. At this point, Lao Cui needs to emphasize that operations should definitely focus on long positions. In the current trend, breaking the previous new low is unlikely unless there is a situation where interest rates are not cut, but currently, this probability is extremely low. At least from the beginning, Lao Cui's prediction has always been that there will be an interest rate cut.

As for the general view in the market, it is that Bitcoin is starting with an eight. Lao Cui currently does not see such a large correction depth; after all, there is a wave of support from the interest rate cut, and reaching the 90,000 mark is already the limit. The key observation point is whether the high point after the interest rate cut can reach around 110,000. If it can reach this high point in one go, the remaining short positions will likely be very uncomfortable. The correction depth can reach between 10,000 to 15,000 points; any deeper would only be shown in the form of spikes, but this kind of market is not within Lao Cui's layout. The most that can be captured in advance is 5,000 to 10,000 points. The strategy during the bull market still needs to focus on stability. At this stage, for those who have ambushed long positions, you can choose to take profits. Lao Cui's capital may hold out until after the interest rate cut in December. If you have patience, Lao Cui still hopes everyone can reduce operations to avoid mistakes. As long as you can maintain the next round of entry after taking profits, users with this courage can take profits and exit at this stage. As long as there is not too much demand for funds and users are not in a hurry to withdraw at the end of the year, they can choose to enter the market and observe for a while. Maintaining a low position for bottom-fishing is still higher than the US stock market, and the upper limit is even significantly higher than all other investments.

From a data perspective, the inflow of USDT has reached about 5 billion in the past month, most of which has entered the platform. This increase in issuance has almost no cost for the platform, and the growth of Bitcoin is also inseparable from the increase in USDT, along with traditional capital bottom-fishing. The support below is currently very solid, so you can dispel your concerns about short positions. For spot users, many friends are concerned about whether SOL can still be bottom-fished at the current price. Entering at the current price and bottom-fishing are unrelated; during the bull market phase, what is tested more is the management of positions, with distributed ambush entries. This kind of market is almost impossible to lose. The premise is that your holding time for spot must meet more than two months. Spot cannot be frequently entered and exited; frequent operations now mean sacrificing profits and increasing the risk of losses. Among all investment coins, except for the dog coin mentioned yesterday, other coins can be entered. The remaining risk issues can be estimated based on your time capacity; time is not a big issue in the investment field.

Do not focus on newly launched coins. Everyone should be clear that regardless of how many times a new coin grows, it lacks the support of capital volume. Most coins are launched just for this round of the bull market. Lao Cui's concern is very obvious; once this round of the bull market ends, the high points of this type of coin will be almost like FIL, and it may be difficult to return to high positions for a lifetime. For those investing in this type of coin, you cannot measure it by a timeline; you can only use a quick entry and exit method. However, when capital calms down to think, if you cannot guarantee profits with contracts, how can you jump into the profit model of newly launched coins? New coins are essentially a casino; they are not afraid of you making profits, but they are afraid of you not entering the market. Therefore, at this stage, do not easily intervene in coins that have doubled, unless you have certain insider information, and this information must come from reliable sources, which you can evaluate yourself.

The article is about to end, and Lao Cui will also report on recent achievements. Currently, Lao Cui still holds the previous few coins, with basically no spot operations. The only short-term operation was a long position at 98,000, which finally made a profit and exited yesterday after some fluctuations. Fortunately, I added a position near 92,000, allowing me to exit completely. This is also why Lao Cui emphasizes the importance of adding positions; as long as you can see the overall trend clearly, you will not fear the pull of short positions. Firm belief can lead to certain gains. Regarding Ethereum, Lao Cui has not entered the market recently, but needs to tell everyone that the current shorting method for Ethereum should definitely consider entering after touching the previous high of 100. Shorting is no longer a trend; if you short, you must be prepared for long-term holding. Therefore, Lao Cui must emphasize the risks of shorting. This shorting is not to encourage everyone to bravely short at high positions, but many newcomers, after just looking at the K-line, feel that the current coin circle is not worth this price. Thus, most newcomers will operate mainly on shorting. It is precisely because some people short that Lao Cui shares the shorting thoughts with everyone. Those who can understand the market should not enter short positions; just wait for bottom-fishing. Currently, Lao Cui holds a long position in Bitcoin entered yesterday, suggesting to take profits around 95,000 for about 2,000 points. For Ethereum, the short position was also pursued after breaking below around 3,600, and it is likely to choose a point to exit after the article is published. There are only two contract positions; the rest are spot positions that have not changed.

Original creation by WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.

Lao Cui's Message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even more than ten steps ahead, while a novice can only see two or three steps. The master considers the overall situation and plans for the big picture, not focusing on one piece or one area, aiming for the final victory. The novice, however, fights for every inch of land, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, and often finds themselves trapped.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!

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