BTC, ETH, or other altcoins, besides dollar-cost averaging and holding steadily, do you also use a portion of your position for high selling and low buying? Or do you wait until you believe a booming bull market is here to sell in batches?
Seeing this reader's comment reminded me of a successful Chinese investor, Li Lu, whose experiences I read about some time ago.
Before introducing Li Lu, let me first respond to this reader's question.
I view dollar-cost averaging and high selling/low buying as two different strategies: one is medium to long-term, while the other is short-term.
As for my own approach, since I entered the crypto ecosystem, I have never split my investments into a portion for dollar-cost averaging and a portion for high selling/low buying.
The vast majority of my operations have been to hold on continuously.
Therefore, my investment strategy is medium to long-term (holding steadily), without any short-term (high selling/low buying) activities.
For the assets I hold, if I discover issues with the team or the project itself, I will not hesitate to sell everything.
If I believe the price is outrageous, I will also sell everything.
There is another situation: if I am uncertain about the project's development but do not see any serious issues, I will reduce my position.
In the past, when I engaged in such operations, there wasn't a strong ideology supporting it; perhaps this motivation simply stemmed from my previous unsuccessful experiences with short-term trading.
However, recently, when I read a passage from Li Lu's self-narration, I found a resonance with my own approach.
We all know Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. Li Lu can be considered a long-term partner and friend of Mr. Munger, and many of his insights and experiences in investing have been deeply influenced by Munger. If you read more news or books about Mr. Munger, you will definitely see Li Lu's name.
In that self-narration, Li Lu mentioned his experience with short-term trading.
There was a time when Li Lu felt that the long-term holding strategy was too inefficient; one wave after another and price differences slipped away right under his nose while he remained indifferent.
Missing these opportunities not only wasted time but also greatly reduced the efficiency of capital utilization.
So, Li Lu began to loosen up and try a more flexible approach: keeping a portion of funds for long-term holding, which he was familiar with, while focusing another portion on short-term trading, utilizing various financial tools (going long, going short, etc.), in short, maximizing the efficiency of this short-term capital.
This mutually non-influencing, win-win approach seemed brilliant.
After a while, Li Lu conducted a thorough review of his operations during this period and discovered several issues:
- These short-term operations did indeed make money, and the returns were decent;
- However, because his time and energy were inevitably diverted to short-term trading, he missed several good projects he originally had high hopes for but couldn't continue to research and track due to time constraints;
- The returns from those good projects he could have bought into earlier far exceeded the gains from his short-term trading;
- His attention and depth of thought were not as strong as before he started short-term trading.
In summary, he felt that this short-term trading experience was more of a loss than a gain.
From then on, he completely abandoned short-term trading and focused on the long-term holding strategy he believed in.
He also had the same requirement for his fund investors: if they did not agree with his long-term holding investment strategy, they should not invest with him.
I deeply resonate with Li Lu's feelings, but my results are nowhere near as good as his—actually, they are quite terrible.
My past experiences with swing trading and high selling/low buying are hard to look back on; although I occasionally enjoyed the fruits of victory during the process, the final tally showed a dismal overall return.
So later, I completely distanced myself from short-term trading; I would rather spend that time and energy reviewing various materials, reading various reports, and gaining a deeper understanding of the projects I am interested in.
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