Author: DC greater than C
This article analyzes the trends and launch times of BTC, ETH, SOL, and altcoin seasons during the previous bull markets of 2021, 2023, and 2024, as well as summarizes how to grasp the current and future altcoin market in bull runs. The full text exceeds 3,000 words, requiring a lot of patience to read, but you can scroll to the bottom to see the conclusion. I believe that reading it all will yield good insights. Thank you, everyone.
Through the ups and downs of bull and bear cycles, witnessing the rise and fall of numerous sectors, the crypto market is like a stage full of infinite possibilities. Here, knowledge is constantly iterating; only through continuous learning can one keep pace with the market rhythm and reap wealth within their cognitive range. As the saying goes, "A day in the crypto world is like a year in the real world," this rapid turnover is precisely the unique charm of the crypto market. The views are for reference; if there are different opinions, discussions and exchanges are welcome. Thank you (all K-line trends are based on weekly data).
From the end of 2020 to the first half of 2021 (519)
As shown in the figure:
The first wave from 2020.10.5 to 2020.12.21: BTC surged significantly, while ETH fluctuated upwards; from the K-line perspective, ETH appeared weak during this phase.
The second wave from 2020.12.28 to 2021.2.22: BTC experienced surges and corrections, while ETH began a significant upward trend with slight fluctuations.
The third wave from 2021.3.1 to 2021.5.19: BTC oscillated at high levels, while ETH initiated a major upward wave until the 519 event, leading to a collective downturn.
In the early phase, BTC surged, and in the later phase, ETH rose significantly. Now, let's take a look at the trends of each altcoin sector.
Platform coins like BNB, MX, HT: A significant upward wave began on 2021.2.1, with prior fluctuations.
Meme sector: Doge surged at the end of the first wave and began a significant upward wave in the second wave. SHIB, which landed on Uniswap in August 2020, fluctuated and officially started its major upward wave in January 2021 until the 519 event.
Public chain sector: Referring to SOL, AVAX, CHR, ADA, DOT, ATOM, FTM, ENJ, VET, etc., all began their major upward waves in the second wave starting from 2020.12.28. THETA, NEAR, INJ started in the mid to late phase of the first wave.
Gaming and metaverse sector: Referring to AXS, MANA, SAND, etc., which experienced fluctuations in the first wave and initiated significant upward waves in the second wave.
DEFI: Referring to UNI, SUSHI, MKR, 1INCH, ALPHA, COMP, etc., all began in the second wave, with very few experiencing upward fluctuations in the first wave.
Other sectors: For example, the very popular FIL at the time and the old coin ETC only began their major upward waves in the third wave.
Summary
In this major upward wave, BTC surged first, even reaching new historical highs repeatedly, while ETH fluctuated upwards until the mid to late phase when ETH truly caught up with the rise, leading to the sequential major upward waves of various altcoin sectors. The sectors listed here are not exhaustive; after all, the main sectors had very good secondary rises, with many opportunities to make money, especially in MEME, L1, gaming, etc.
Note: Most of the projects here were listed on Binance in 2019-2020. The metaverse and gaming, which were crazily speculated in 2021, were basically already listed on Binance in 2020, which proves Binance's grasp of new narratives and sectors in the market. As for public chains, this has always been a hot narrative for speculation. MEME emerged with the rise of DEX in 2020, coupled with Musk's endorsements of DOGE and SHIB, leading to the gradual popularity of MEME.
The second major upward wave in 2021: From July 2021 to the end of 2021
From the figure, it can be seen that from July to November 2021, the major upward wave saw BTC and ETH almost overlap, rising together. As for the previously mentioned altcoin increases, those who have experienced it should still remember vividly.
Meme sector: Although DOGE did not surge significantly in the second half of the year, SHIB surged tenfold after 519, and many good projects emerged in the Meme sector, such as BABYDOGE, FLOKI, etc.
Public chain sector: In the second half of the year, AVAX, SOL, CHR, ENJ, ADA, FTM, etc., all reached new heights.
Gaming and metaverse sector: AXS, SAND, MANA, RACA, etc., all reached new heights.
DEFI sector: The second half of the year basically went silent, with no new speculation or rises.
Other sectors: For example, FIL, old coins ETC, BCH, etc., saw no new speculation or rises. Thus, the entire year of 2021 came to an end.
Summary of the 2021 bull market altcoins:
Macro background: After the 2020 election, the entire year of 2021 was a period of monetary easing due to the pandemic, marking the largest easing by the Federal Reserve since 2008. In this macro environment of loose monetary policy and rampant liquidity, BTC surged from $10,000 in October 2020 to nearly $69,000, a rise of almost seven times, while ETH rose more than fourteen times from $340 to $4,870.
As for altcoins, did they really experience a general rise? In the first half of 2021, before 519, there was indeed a general rise, but in the second half, many sectors went silent and began to harvest market liquidity.
PS: How do you define the general rise of altcoins in this bull market? If we consider a rise of 5-10 times and above 10 times, then the general rise rate is about 70% or more. Many friends might say, "Is 10 times too little in a bull market?" Okay, if we define a general rise as above 30 times, I can clearly tell you that the general rise rate is at most 20%.
Only public chains, gaming, metaverse, and MEME have consistently been speculative sectors. DEFI, in fact, there are many other less popular sectors I haven't listed, such as music, fandom, infrastructure, etc., which have basically peaked or gone dormant.
Moreover, the projects in the popular speculative sectors of public chains, gaming, metaverse, and MEME were mostly launched in 2019-2020, especially those listed on Binance in 2020, whether through direct listing or IEO. So, are the projects in the sectors that opened in 2022-2024 worth paying attention to? Don't rush; it will be mentioned later.
As for the projects that launched in the bull market of 2021, regardless of whether they were on major or minor exchanges, how many are still alive now? Do you remember? Those who do probably got stuck.
The third major upward wave from October 2023 to March 2024
As shown in the figure: From October 2023 to March 2024, the major upward wave saw BTC and ETH almost overlap, rising together. What about altcoins? After experiencing the bear market of 2022, new popular sector projects have emerged, such as AI, ETH's L2, LI's modular blockchain, etc., while the metaverse has lost its heat.
Now let's look at the situation of public chains, L2, AI, gaming, and Meme sectors. If we rank the sectors by the number of projects with high increases, it would be public chains = Meme > AI > gaming.
Old public chains: ETH, SOL, INJ, CKB go without saying.
New public chains: SEI, TIA, SUI, TAO, NTRN, 5-10 times.
Meme: ORDI and SATS (BRC20 Meme), PEPE, WIF, BOME, BONK, FLOKI, 5-10 times and above.
AI: ARKM, WLD (related to AI, let's tentatively place it in AI), 5-10 times.
Gaming: PIXEL, PORTAL, XAI, ACE, etc., 50%-2 times.
Other sectors like DEFI and infrastructure: PENDEL and ID, 5-10 times.
ETH's L2: ARB, OP, STRK, have seen increases but not much; METIS is doing well, with 10 times.
Aside from the projects mentioned above, the increases in other sectors are not significant, and they are not in popular speculative narratives.
Summary
Macro background: After experiencing the interest rate hike cycle in 2022, interest rates were paused in September 2023, coupled with speculation around BTC spot ETFs and trading.
The previous mention of monetary easing refers to balance sheet expansion, while this time point is about balance sheet contraction, naturally leading to limited market liquidity, with limited funds concentrated in major sectors, making it difficult to compare with 2021. Therefore, a general rise in all altcoin sectors is almost impossible; the enduring speculative narratives remain public chains and MEME. As for gaming, I personally believe it is mainly due to limited market liquidity, and the rise of SOL and the emergence of MEME on SOL have taken away too much market liquidity.
Do you remember what I mentioned earlier? The projects in the sectors that opened in 2022-2024 and are listed on Binance are worth paying attention to. The projects mentioned above, aside from old public chains, are mostly those that launched in 2022-2023 on major exchanges. So, we need to grasp this trading experience and see if it continues to hold true.
The market from October 2024 to now (sharing my personal insights on the current market background, BTC, ETH, SOL, and various altcoin sectors).
I won't include charts for BTC and ETH's trends, as you are already aware of the increases in various altcoin sectors.
As of now, the only sector that has taken off significantly is MEME. Even among L1s, only SOL, SUI, and old public chains are performing well; the rest are dormant. The good news is that at this moment, as I publish this article, ETH seems to be gaining momentum.
Conclusion
Macro background: The current cycle of interest rate cuts began in September 2024, coupled with the new U.S. president Trump, who has a crypto-friendly attitude. The balance sheet contraction may be nearing its end in Q1 next year, along with spot ETFs. Although there hasn't been monetary easing yet, we are finally transitioning from tightening to loosening, and the new four years are very much worth looking forward to.
The first wave is from now until Q1 next year, and then we will see if there will be a U.S. economic recession or other black swan events. If so, it will be another 312, followed by a situation similar to 2020-2021, which I will share in detail at that time.
If there is no U.S. economic recession and a soft landing occurs, then there will be no 312, and the music will continue.
BTC, SOL, BNB, and the new public chain SUI have already risen, driving the increases in the MEME sector, while other sectors remain quiet. As we analyzed earlier, ETH needs to gain momentum, and coincidentally, ETH is currently gaining momentum, seemingly initiating a second wave. (As of the publication, the market response indicates that, as I mentioned earlier, L1 is also exploding, which is a long-lasting speculative narrative.)
Since ETH has initiated a second wave of increases, given the macro background, the probability of a general rise in all altcoin sectors is very high. However, if you want to choose a specific sector that performs well, it is worth considering: new and old public chains, MEME, ETH's L2, and AI-related projects (like AI + MEME). As for gaming, it's not that it's not chosen, but it may be a bit behind.
What is being speculated in the crypto market often ultimately reflects on specific cryptocurrencies. So how do we find and judge the next sectors that will be speculated in the crypto market? We look at the projects listed on Binance, as well as the macroeconomic situation in the U.S. and what major U.S. media outlets are reporting.
From 2022 to now, the sectors with the most projects listed on Binance are public chains, Meme, L2, gaming, AI, DEFI (I don't want to write about this sector; if you want to get rich quickly, aren't Meme and public chains enough?), RWA, and DEPIN (showing some potential). As for other sectors, it’s still the same: if you want to get rich quickly, focus on Meme, L1, gaming, and AI. Why not seize the opportunity?
In grasping new narratives and sectors in the market, Binance is the industry's barometer, coupled with its liquidity support, which cannot be questioned.
More importantly, we need to pay attention to information from the U.S. Just looking at the price increases of DOGE and PNUT says it all. Therefore, it is essential to keep an eye on this. As for SOL, let’s not forget that this is a project backed by powerful U.S. capital and market makers; the same goes for SUI, APT, OMNI, ALT, and others.
Timing and selecting coins have been noted; getting in is not difficult, but what about getting out? For any project, you need to consider the broader market background, the sector it belongs to, the exchanges it is listed on (Binance, Coinbase, Upbit, OKX), the market makers involved (the nature of market makers), the ceiling of the same sector, and the prospects of the sector's narrative to calculate possible valuations. No project can keep rising indefinitely; there will always be a need for consolidation, even BTC is subject to this. The market is counterintuitive; FOMO driven by emotions is not good at all.
Thank you, DYOR.
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