Wishing everyone prosperity!
Author: DC greater than C
This article analyzes the trends and launch timings of BTC, ETH, SOL, and altcoins during the previous bull markets of 2021, 2023, and 2024, as well as summarizes how to grasp the current and future altcoin trends in the bull market. The full text exceeds 3,000 words, and it requires a lot of patience to read through, but you can scroll down to see the conclusion. I believe that reading it all will yield good insights. Thank you, everyone.
Through the ups and downs of bull and bear cycles, witnessing the rise and fall of numerous sectors, the crypto market is like a stage full of infinite possibilities. Here, knowledge is constantly evolving, and only through continuous learning can one keep pace with the market rhythm and reap wealth within their cognitive range. As the saying goes, "One day in the crypto world is like a year in the real world," this rapid iteration is precisely the unique charm of the crypto market. The views are for reference; if there are different opinions, discussions are welcome. Thank you (all K-line trends are based on weekly data).
From the end of 2020 to the first half of 2021
As shown in the figure:
The first wave from 2020.10.5 to 2020.12.21: BTC surged significantly, while ETH fluctuated upwards; from the K-line perspective, ETH appeared weak during this phase.
The second wave from 2020.12.28 to 2021.2.22: BTC experienced surges and corrections, while ETH began a significant upward trend with slight fluctuations.
The third wave from 2021.3.1 to 2021.5.19: BTC oscillated at high levels, while ETH initiated a major upward wave until the 519 event, leading to a collective downturn.
In the early phase, BTC surged, and in the later phase, ETH surged. Now, let's take a look at the trends of various altcoin sectors.
Platform coins like BNB, MX, HT: A significant upward wave began on 2021.2.1, with prior fluctuations.
Meme sector: Doge surged at the end of the first wave and began a significant upward wave in the second wave. SHIB, which landed on Uniswap in August 2020, experienced fluctuations and officially started its major upward wave in January 2021, until the 519 event.
Public chain sector: Referring to SOL, AVAX, CHR, ADA, DOT, ATOM, FTM, ENJ, VET, etc., all began their major upward waves in the second wave starting from 2020.12.28. THETA, NEAR, INJ initiated in the mid to late phase of the first wave.
Gaming and Metaverse sector: Referring to AXS, MANA, SAND, etc., the first wave saw fluctuations, while the second wave initiated a significant upward trend.
DEFI: Referring to UNI, SUSHI, MKR, 1INCH, ALPHA, COMP, etc., all began in the second wave, with very few experiencing upward fluctuations in the first wave.
Other sectors: For example, the very popular FIL at the time and the old coin ETC only began their major upward waves in the third wave.
Summary
In this major upward wave, BTC surged first, even reaching new historical highs repeatedly, while ETH continued to fluctuate upwards until the mid to late phase, when ETH truly caught up with the rise, leading to the sequential major upward waves of various altcoin sectors. The sectors listed here are not exhaustive; after all, the major sectors experienced significant secondary increases, providing many opportunities for profit, especially in MEME, L1, gaming, etc.
Note: Most of the projects mentioned here were listed on Binance in 2019-2020. The Metaverse and gaming, which were crazily speculated in 2021, were basically already listed on Binance in 2020, sufficiently proving Binance's grasp of new narratives and sectors in the market. As for public chains, this has always been a hot narrative for speculation. MEME emerged with the rise of DEX in 2020, coupled with Musk's endorsements of DOGE and SHIB, leading to the gradual popularity of MEME.
The second major upward wave in 2021: from July 2021 to the end of 2021
From the figure, it can be seen that from July 2021 to November, the major upward wave saw BTC and ETH almost overlap, rising together. As for the previously mentioned altcoin increases, those who have experienced it should still remember vividly.
Meme sector: Although DOGE did not surge significantly in the second half of the year, SHIB surged tenfold after 519, and many good projects emerged in the Meme sector, such as BABYDOGE, FLOKI, etc.
Public chain sector: In the second half of the year, AVAX, SOL, CHR, ENJ, ADA, FTM, etc., all reached new heights.
Gaming and Metaverse sector: AXS, SAND, MANA, RACA, etc., all reached new heights.
DEFI sector: The second half of the year basically went silent, with no new speculation or upward trends.
Other sectors: For example, FIL, old coins ETC, BCH, etc., saw no new speculation or upward movements. Thus, the entire year of 2021 came to an end.
Summary of the 2021 bull market altcoins:
Macro background: After the 2020 election, the entire year of 2021 was a period of monetary easing due to the pandemic, marking the largest easing by the Federal Reserve since 2008. In this macro environment of loose monetary policy and rampant liquidity, BTC surged from $10,000 in October 2020 to nearly $69,000, a rise of almost seven times, while ETH surged over 14 times from $340 to $4,870.
As for altcoins, did they really experience a universal rise? In the first half of 2021, before 519, there was indeed a universal rise, but in the second half, many sectors went silent, directly starting to harvest market liquidity.
PS: How do you define this bull market's universal rise in altcoins? If we say 5-10 times and over 10 times increases, then the universal rise rate is about 70% or more. Many might say, "Is 10 times too little in a bull market?" Okay, if we define a universal rise as over 30 times, I can clearly tell you that the universal rise rate is at most 20%.
Only public chains, gaming, Metaverse, and MEME have consistently been speculative sectors. DEFI, in fact, has many less popular sectors that I haven't listed, such as music, fandom, infrastructure, etc., which have basically peaked or gone dormant.
Moreover, the projects in the popular speculative sectors of public chains, gaming, Metaverse, and MEME were mostly launched in 2019-2020, especially those listed on Binance in 2020, whether through direct listing or IEO. So, should we pay attention to the projects in sectors that will launch on Binance from 2022-2024? Don't worry, this will be mentioned later.
As for the projects that launched on secondary markets in the bull market of 2021, regardless of whether they were on major or minor exchanges, how many are still alive now? Do you remember? Those who do probably feel trapped.
From October 2023 to March 2024, the third major upward wave
As shown in the figure: From October 2023 to March 2024, the major upward wave saw BTC and ETH almost overlap, rising together. What about altcoins? After experiencing the bear market of 2022, new popular sector projects have emerged, such as AI, ETH's L2, LI's modular blockchain, etc., while the Metaverse's popularity has faded.
Now let's look at the situation of public chains, L2, AI, gaming, and Meme sectors. In terms of the number of projects with high increases, the ranking is: public chain = Meme > AI > gaming.
Old public chains: No need to mention ETH, SOL, INJ, CKB;
New public chains: SEI, TIA, SUI, TAO, NTRN, 5-10 times;
Meme: ORDI and SATS (BRC20 Meme), PEPE, WIF, BOME, BONK, FLOKI, 5-10 times and above;
AI: ARKM, WLD (related to AI, let's tentatively categorize it under AI);
5-10 times in gaming: PIXEL, PORTAL, XAI, ACE, etc., 50%-2 times;
Other sectors like DEFI and infrastructure: PENDEL and ID, 5-10 times;
ETH's L2: ARB, OP, STRK, have seen increases but not much; METIS has performed well, with a 10 times increase;
Aside from the projects mentioned above, the increases in other sectors are not significant, and they are not in popular speculative narratives.
Summary
Macro background: After experiencing the interest rate hike cycle in 2022, interest rates were paused in September 2023, coupled with speculation around BTC spot ETFs and trading.
The previous mention of monetary easing refers to expanding the balance sheet, while this time point is about shrinking the balance sheet, naturally leading to limited market liquidity, with limited funds concentrated in major sectors, making it difficult to compare with 2021. Therefore, a universal rise across all altcoin sectors is almost impossible; the enduring speculative narratives remain public chains and MEME. As for gaming, I personally believe it is mainly due to limited market liquidity, and the surge of SOL and the rise of MEME on SOL have taken away too much market liquidity.
Do you remember what I mentioned earlier? The projects in sectors that will launch on Binance from 2022-2024 are worth paying attention to. The projects mentioned above, except for old public chains, are basically those that launched on major exchanges in 2022-2023. So we need to grasp this trading experience and see if it continues to hold true.
From October 2024 to the present (sharing my personal insights on the current market, including the macro background, BTC, ETH, SOL, and various altcoin sectors)
I won't include charts for BTC and ETH's trends, as you are already aware of the increases in various altcoin sectors.
Currently, the only sector that has taken off significantly is MEME. Even among L1s, only SOL, SUI, and the old public chains have performed well; the others are dormant. The good news is that at this moment, as I write this article, ETH seems to be starting to gain momentum.
Conclusion
Macro background: In September 2024, this round of interest rate cuts began, coupled with the new U.S. president Trump, who has a crypto-friendly attitude. The tapering may be nearing its end in Q1 next year, along with the spot ETF. Although there hasn't been monetary easing yet, it is finally shifting from tightening to loosening, ushering in a new four-year cycle that is very much worth looking forward to.
The first wave is from now until Q1 next year, and then we will see if there will be a U.S. economic recession or other black swan events. If so, it will be another 312 event, followed by a situation similar to 2020-2021, which I will share in detail at that time.
If there is no U.S. economic recession and a soft landing occurs, then there will be no 312, and the music will continue to play.
BTC, SOL, BNB, and the new public chain SUI have all risen, driving the increase in the MEME sector, while other sectors remain relatively quiet. As we analyzed earlier, ETH's momentum is needed, and coincidentally, ETH is currently gaining traction, seemingly initiating a second wave. (As of the time of writing, the market response indicates that, as I mentioned before, L1 is also surging, which is a long-lasting speculative narrative.)
Since ETH has started its second wave of increases, given the broader context, there is a high probability of a universal rise across all altcoin sectors. However, if you want to focus on specific sectors that are performing well, it is worth considering: new and old public chains, MEME, L2 projects on ETH, and AI-related projects (such as AI + MEME). As for gaming, it’s not that it’s being excluded, but it may lag a bit.
What the crypto market speculates on often ultimately reflects on specific coins. So how do we identify the sectors that will be speculated on next in the crypto market? Look at the projects listed on Binance and the macroeconomic situation in the U.S., as well as what major U.S. media outlets are reporting.
From 2022 to now, the sectors with the most projects listed on Binance are public chains, MEME, L2, gaming, AI, and DEFI (I don’t want to write about this sector; come on, do you want to get rich? Aren't MEME and public chains enough to play with?), RWA, and DEPIN (showing some potential). As for other sectors, it’s still the same: if you want to get rich, focus on MEME, L1, gaming, and AI. How can you not seize the opportunity?
In grasping new narratives and sectors in the market, Binance is the industry benchmark, coupled with its liquidity support, which cannot be questioned.
More importantly, we need to pay attention to information from the U.S. Just look at the increases in DOGE and PNUT, which say it all. So it’s essential to keep an eye on this. As for SOL, don’t forget that this is a project backed by powerful U.S. capital investments and market makers; in fact, SUI, APT, OMNI, ALT, and others are also in this category.
Timing and selecting coins have been noted; getting in is not difficult, but what about getting out? For any project, one must consider the broader market context, the sector it belongs to, the exchanges it is listed on (Binance, Coinbase, Upbit, OKX), the market makers involved (the nature of market makers), the ceiling of the same sector, and the prospects of the sector narrative to calculate potential valuations. No project can keep surging indefinitely; there will always be a need for consolidation, even BTC is no exception. The market is counterintuitive; FOMO driven by emotions is not good at all.
Thank you, DYOR.
At the End
The above is not investment advice; it combines experiences from past bull markets and the ability to grasp market changes. Continuous learning and enhancing one’s understanding of the market are essential to keep pace with market rhythms and reap wealth within one’s cognitive range. Market liquidity, changes in market makers, shifts in project narratives, and especially the market's speculative expectations all require ongoing learning and improvement. This market changes too quickly.
Friends need to enhance their understanding of the market and choose to seize opportunities. Luck can only win for a moment; strength can sustain. Wealth is a reward for knowledge.
I hope we can all grasp this round steadily. Thank you, everyone.
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