A tsunami of global changes in production relations is about to arrive. Under the trend of increasing entropy, the new order of the era is gradually breaking through the critical point amidst chaos.

Original Title: "Gary Yang: The Dramatic Shift in the Landscape After Trump's Victory"

Written by: Gary Yang, Founder of Starry Sky Capital

Written in November 2024 in Bangkok - Singapore - Hong Kong - Dubai

After Trump's victory, there was a dramatic and reactive fluctuation in global social relations and financial assets, with the butterfly effect impacting many areas. On the surface, Bitcoin and emerging assets surged, gold plummeted, the dollar regained some asset control, and the U.S. established a new leadership team, even setting up a D.O.G.E. department. Global degens and innovators regained confidence, and Devcon reflected an indescribable carnival in the chaotic city of Cyberpunk. The conflicts of various civilizations seemed to take a breather for a moment; essentially, the global landscape is undergoing rapid and dramatic changes, with development expectations mixed with completely different ideologies. A tsunami of global changes in production relations is about to arrive. Under the trend of increasing entropy, the new order of the era is gradually breaking through the critical point amidst chaos.

In the days following Trump's victory, many friends asked a question: Why did both the U.S. stock market and the Crypto Market surge simultaneously? Does Trump represent more centralization or decentralization? I made the following response online:

After the victories of Trump and Musk, the interests represented by the left side of the Nolan curve were curtailed. In recent years, the extreme individual freedoms and blue shift have lost legitimacy, replaced by the right-wing forces of economic freedom. The feedback from the past few days has also proven that the red shift indeed brings hope for breaking the temporary predicament.

Many friends asked why Bitcoin and the increasingly centralized U.S. do not represent opposing concepts of centralization and decentralization, yet assets surged together in the past few days. The reason is clear: this is a breakthrough into a temporary economic freedom before war, after breaking the constraints of leftist dogmatism.

This involves several issues and gives rise to more fundamental questions:

• The contradictory essence of the qualitative change in the alternating positions of the two U.S. parties
• The faith replacement of the three generations of financial system anchors
• The historical significance and accompanying issues of Bitcoin and Crypto
• Whether Trump and Musk represent the positions and interests of the Crypto financial system
• The rise of the younger generation and the inevitability, issues, and twists of establishing a new production relations system
• The collective wisdom of social groups aiding the establishment of a new production relations system through a very special decentralized method
• The main and secondary contradictions in the current global world and the chaotic cycles brought about by uncertainty

I. The Contradictory Essence of the Qualitative Change in the Alternating Positions of the Two U.S. Parties

The positions of the two U.S. parties represent different freedoms on either side of the Nolan curve. The left of the Democratic Party and blue represents individual freedom, advocating for conditional and equal freedom; the right of the Republican Party and red represents economic freedom, advocating for unconditional competitive freedom, which is closer to the ideas of Social Darwinism. Due to the extreme and easily attackable contradictions of Social Darwinism in the management of Eastern and Western civilizations during peacetime, it is not advocated by many countries, including the U.S.; conversely, the individual freedoms advocated by the Democratic Party meet both the needs of individual survival and the needs of managers for stable development during a peaceful historical phase, thus becoming the relatively dominant culture in the U.S. over the past 20 years.

However, in recent years, as the previous cycle's industry—mainly the computer and internet industry—has gradually matured, the liberal environment has transitioned into practical utilitarianism, further evolving into collective authoritarianism (Note 1). This is manifested in the monopolization of enterprises worldwide, fierce competition, soaring prices, industry involution, and a complex and costly system of entry barriers. The individual freedom system has gradually stiffened under the demands of finance and politics, developing towards extreme individual freedom. Many believe that the proliferation of hundreds of gender identifications, the excessive normalization of marijuana, and the increasing inflation and pressure of capital competition are all extreme products of right-wing overdevelopment. The left-wing innovative entrepreneurs represented by Musk, after being excluded from the new energy vehicle whitelist by the Democratic Party for opposing union establishment, and subsequently upgrading to have NASA support SpaceX's competitors, along with his eldest son undergoing gender reassignment surgery, became the last straw that broke the camel's back, leading to a complete explosion of the value conflict represented by the two parties. The contradictory essence of the qualitative change in the alternating positions of the two U.S. parties actually represents the conflict between the overly rigid leftist individual liberal management methods that align with the interests of the FED, represented by the Democratic Party, and the radical breakthrough new capitalist establishment represented by the emerging Republican new elite's right-wing economic liberal management methods. The results of the November 2024 election indicate that the latter's voice ultimately gained dominant momentum, breaking through the conservative left's power and temporarily allowing history to evolve towards a right-wing blue shift.

This evolution typically only has breakthrough benefits in a short phase. When such nodes appear in history, they usually do not transition peacefully to the next stage of major development. Generally, there are two outcomes: one is a strong counterattack from the other side, leading to a more chaotic situation; the other is that the breakthrough forces must form more concentrated power or implement more extreme strategies to consolidate this change and new trend, leading to a counter-extreme. Whether the combination of Trump and Musk is more akin to Caesar and Octavian heading towards the latter or genuinely becoming the Lincoln of the digital information age in response to the demands of the times is still difficult to conclude in 2024, or perhaps it is itself a superposition state.

II. The Faith Replacement of the Three Generations of Financial System Anchors

In the days following Trump's victory, the three generations of financial system anchors: gold, the dollar, and Bitcoin experienced rapid and dramatic reversals. It can be said that the rapid response speed of market wisdom (Market Swarm AI) still exceeds our individual imaginations.

This is very simple and clear. Gold represents the historical financial credit system of the gold standard, the dollar represents the dollar-based financial institution credit system based on U.S. credit since the Bretton Woods Agreement, and Bitcoin represents a decentralized new digital financial credit system built on decentralized blockchain, driven by non-centralized group interests outside existing centralized financial institutions, which is still incomplete but represents the future of a digital information society. These three systems formed a temporary equilibrium before Trump's victory, with gold continuously strengthening, the dollar in second place, and Bitcoin weakening. From the data, from 2023 to November 2024, gold soared from less than 2000 to 2800, while the global asset influence of the dollar declined by 3% year-on-year, and Bitcoin continued to lack momentum after the halving, with the approval of ETFs leading to increased concentration in the Crypto industry, reduced innovation, and a decline in total Market Cap.

However, just a week after Trump's victory, the values and control of the three anchor assets rapidly reversed. This can be reflected not only in their own prices but also in the changes in their correlations and forward-looking adjustments with each other and with other cross-asset classes (Note 2). The three anchor assets represent the positions of the "old, middle-aged, and young" three generations of financial systems, corresponding to different historical consensus periods. Gold's time spans from BC600 to AD1944, the dollar's time from AD1944 to the present, while the continuous breakthroughs of Bitcoin after this election indicate that the decentralized new financial value system, which the world is continuously exploring in the mid-digital information age, is further growing. By mid-November 2024, the total Market Cap of the Crypto market approached 3.2T, with Bitcoin itself nearing 1.9T, still less than half the distance from Nvidia's 3.5T.

III. The Historical Significance and Accompanying Issues of Bitcoin and Crypto

The consensus on the historical significance of Bitcoin and Crypto representing the decentralized management system of smart contracts for future society is continuously rising, especially after Trump's victory, with a trend of quantitative change leading to qualitative change.

In his speech in Nashville in July 2024, Trump mentioned related actions he would take if elected:

1. Dismiss Gary Gensler and appoint a new SEC chairman;
2. Establish a strategic national Bitcoin reserve for the U.S. government;
3. The U.S. government will retain 100% of its Bitcoin holdings;
4. Ensure that there will be no CBDC during his term;
5. End the anti-cryptocurrency campaign of the Biden and Harris administration, enhancing the cryptocurrency innovation environment;
6. Allow Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies to soar in unprecedented ways;
7. Support the freedom and sovereign independence represented by Bitcoin, ensuring it is not subject to coercion and control by the U.S. government.

From the short-term actual situation after Trump's victory in November 2024, aside from the continuous surge in Bitcoin and Crypto prices, there are indeed signs that the other points in the checklist are being implemented one by one. This acceleration process will undoubtedly bring about significant changes in the patterns of interests, credit foundations, market transactions, and the essence of social production relations. It can be said that Trump and Musk are continuously pushing history, causing node-like changes in the U.S. and even the world.

Although the theory of approaching singularity makes the logic of exponential curve development easy to understand, the rapid node-like changes, especially those involving significant interests and changes in production relations management, will inevitably encounter various contradictions and backlash. The temporarily stable state of the eye of the storm at the end of 2024 will be short-lived, with many power entities and interest institutions more caught off guard in this phase, facing greater uncertainty and chaos. Despite the clear and strong orthodoxy of the future financial and social systems depicted by Bitcoin and Crypto, the accompanying issues and contradictions are too numerous to be instantly digested at this historical stage. As Su Shi of the Northern Song Dynasty said in his later years to Wang Anshi, the reforms advocated by Wang Anshi and Emperor Huizong of Song were not due to others not understanding the more advanced ideas, but rather because they affected too many interest structures that could not gain support. It is evident that the joint actions of Trump and Musk are much more radical than the collaboration between Emperor Huizong of Song and Wang Anshi, and the accompanying issues and consequences awaiting will be even more intense, as the world faces greater uncertainty and chaos.

The accompanying issues of the strong rise of Bitcoin and Crypto after Trump's victory are numerous, and here are just a few aspects:

1. It will fundamentally affect and change the definition and operation methods of payment settlement, transaction scenarios, asset management, credit regulation, and even the economic and value systems of the U.S. and the global financial landscape;
2. It will create essential conflicts with the current and planned economic and fiscal policies of various countries, as well as the strategies for managing social production that arise from them;
3. The differences in decision-making and solutions faced by countries derived from the above two points will further lead to the escalation of civilizational conflicts (Note 4) and the polarization and fragmentation of global contrasts against democracy and collective ideologies.

IV. Do Trump and Musk Represent the Positions and Interests of the Crypto Financial System?

The current positions of Trump and Musk are complex superpositions and cannot be directly determined from the surface.

In terms of Trump and Musk themselves, although both have characteristics that align with right-wing positions under the advocacy of economic freedom, Trump has relatively more realism and a tendency to take advantage of tools and trends that can be utilized during the development process.

Therefore, in the face of the positions and interests of future world finance and Crypto, Trump adopts a more bottom-up approach, that is, the logic of "If this can achieve me, then I will choose it." This mindset has been very clear in his past speeches:

“I'm too old to worry about who likes me and who dislikes me. I have more important things to do. If you love me, I love you. If you support me, I support you. If you hate me, I don’t care. Life goes on with or without you.”

In other words, from a future perspective at this stage, it cannot be said that Trump has always represented the positions and interests of the Crypto financial system; it can only be said that Trump has leveraged this trend to achieve his stage goals, thereby also promoting the rapid development of this trend.

Musk's situation is somewhat different; relative to Trump, he is more idealistic, embodying the logic of "The future of this world should be like this, and I stand with the future," with a bit more top-down thinking, but of course, he is still a realist. This is also why he chose to commemorate Nikola Tesla as the name of his company, transcending Tesla to achieve the essence of combining ideals with reality.

On this basis, Musk has a more idealized vision of the future. He starts from the premise that future production relations will be more efficient, thus the governance of Crypto's Smart Contracts, decentralized financial issuance, and decentralized collective decision-making all possess clear orthodoxy. This is also the reason why, immediately after Trump's victory, the D.O.G.E. department was launched, with Musk appointed as its head, and why Musk proposed to eliminate the IRS's automated reporting stance. Therefore, compared to Trump, Musk's self-actualization, due to his additional idealism, allows him to represent the positions and interests of the Crypto financial system more than Trump.

Of course, this representation and promotion are also based on the realistic interests he has planned. Like any other institution or individual, Musk finds it difficult to work and develop under a de-identity stance, at least not at this current stage. In the superposition state of Octavian and Lincoln, if Musk can successfully escape the current counter-pressure and enter the next stage, while also transcending history to abandon personal worship of honor and continue to promote the development of decentralized new financial and social systems, then he could become a historical node, representing the positions and interests of the new system. It is difficult, but it is not impossible.

V. The Rise of the Younger Generation and the Inevitability, Issues, and Twists of Establishing a New Production Relations System

Regardless of whether Musk can ultimately complete the historical node task in a favorable manner, he has successfully represented the transitional change connecting the two generations before and after the singularity. The new generation of young people is increasingly rising with Degen thinking along this transitional change.

After Trump's victory, from the points discussed above: the qualitative change in the landscape caused by the alternating positions of the two U.S. parties, the faith replacement of the three generations of financial system anchors, the further growth of Bitcoin and Crypto representing the decentralized management system of smart contracts for future society, and considering the psychology and issues under different positions exemplified by Trump and Musk; it is already evident that the trend of establishing a new system is clear, and the issues and contradictions are very pronounced.

The D.O.G.E. department emerged with a very comical perspective, and although it is incredible, it succinctly reveals one of the biggest problems in the current world: under the existing global mainstream economic and social environment, the inefficiency of production is irreconcilable. The essence behind this is the irreconcilable issues of global economic and trade exchanges, leading to irreconcilable contradictions between various social civilizations, and the irreversible entropy increase in production, employment, and financial governance in various countries. The peaceful environment brought by Keynesian economic theory is about to come to an end.

Interestingly, when such essential contradictions arise, almost all countries and entities tend to revert to management methods, advocating for a traditional management approach with self-civilizational characteristics rather than risking the acceptance of a new, more efficient management method. This point is predicted and reasonably explained in Huntington's "The Clash of Civilizations," and it is easy to understand because taking a relatively more familiar path carries lower risks and is conducive to maintaining stability for managers. This is precisely the reason that will create significant resistance in the process of establishing a new system, causing the development of the era to become tortuous.

In the current world environment, this traditional management approach is more likely to occur in the major civilizational blocks of the Northern Hemisphere. In contrast, some sub-civilizations and regions in the Southern Hemisphere, where the original civilizational strength is not very concentrated (Note 5), are about to become the soil for the establishment of new civilizations and emerging production relations systems.

VI. The Collective Wisdom of Social Groups Aiding the Establishment of a New Production Relations System Through a Special Decentralized Method

The first large-scale Crypto industry event after the election, Devcon, was held in Bangkok, Thailand. This city, known for its rich Cyberpunk charm, was congested from morning till night, with neon lights and chaos creating a fertile environment for the rapid interaction and cooperation of decentralized civilizations, humorously dubbed the "Sin City." Degens and Digital Nomads are building DeFi infrastructure here, discussing techniques for rapid launches and meme mining, with the FOMO sentiment rapidly integrating into the thoughts of Blockchain and Protocol under an unregulated environment, forming a decentralized social and economic management system that breaks the Keynesian thought structure, akin to millions writing a new Code of Hammurabi together. To some extent, Bangkok, Thailand, possesses more of the native characteristics of the emerging production relations system compared to the new Singapore and the opulent Dubai of Token2049.

When I mention the characteristics of this era for paradigm comparison, I often use the Renaissance of the late Middle Ages, and Cyberpunk Bangkok is like the Baroque of the Renaissance. The iterative evolution of the collective consciousness of the Degen social group, in such a diverse and open environment, forms a rapid collision of neural networks, resulting in collective wisdom (Swarm AI).

The openness of the soil has an astonishing evolutionary effect on this collective wisdom. Perhaps even the Solana Foundation itself did not anticipate the extent to which the meme explosion driven by pump.fun could reach within two weeks after Trump's victory. The seemingly chaotic and speculative meme launches are quietly extracting liquidity from CeFi and TradFi, changing the logic of CEX and VC projects, resisting and reconstructing a more DeFi Native new order. All the PVP operations carried out day and night are, in fact, the basic units of the new system's microfinance, the foundational cells of the next-generation economy, and the cellular automata of the new financial establishment. With the concepts of AI Agents and AI Validators continuously evolving and maturing, combined with CZ's recently advocated DeSci approach as a catalyst, adding direction to the chaos of memes, it is believed that the evolutionary development in the coming years will be immeasurable.

The grassroots iteration of the emerging production relations system has never slowed down; Trump's victory ignited this long-accumulated catalytic reaction like a flame.

VII. The Main and Secondary Contradictions in the Current Global World and the Chaotic Cycles Brought About by Uncertainty

In November 2024, the world is at a significant historical node, with uncertainty, deeper chaos, and the establishment of new systems all at a critical point of imminent eruption. The tension and resistance brought about by Trump's victory will become the final blow to dismantle the original global consensus.

What is the main contradiction in the current global world? Samuel Huntington pointed out in 1994 that it is the conflict of civilizations between different civilizations, which is a foundational understanding that I respect and agree with. However, after experiencing the stark contrasts of civilization and development worldwide in 2024, witnessing the dramatic victories of Trump and Musk, and imagining the indescribable uncertainties and chaotic expectations that follow, I realize that the contradictions are by no means limited to this.

The main contradiction in the current global world is:

From a top-down perspective, countries and interest entities, starting from their original collective interests, are using power to manage productivity and production materials in order to maintain and amplify their advantages and compete with other entities, based on the post-World War II environment of Keynesian Western economics as a foundation for symbiotic peace;

And

From a bottom-up perspective, individuals and interest entities, starting from their emerging individual interests, are proposing new management approaches to productivity and production materials in the face of a new generation of global decentralized blockchain-based smart contract financial environments, seeking to break through and surpass original advantages to acquire new soil for reconstruction and growth.

This is the contradiction between the two. In fact, by the end of 2024, under the world pattern, most countries and interest entities are still in a semi-feudal, semi-centralized state capitalist environment, and the current main contradiction is pushing them towards a semi-centralized state capitalism and semi-decentralized digital information management environment.

Under such a primary contradiction, the conflicts of civilizations and the contradictions between AI digital and humanity temporarily belong to secondary contradictions at this stage. Before Trump's victory, the conflicts of civilizations represented by the potential Thucydides Trap and a potential new Cold War still exhibited characteristics of primary contradictions; however, after Trump's victory, it is clear that these will gradually recede to secondary contradictions, and even some of the conflicts of civilizations in the Middle East will become secondary contradictions for a certain period. Instead, this new primary contradiction will take their place. Of course, within the 21st century, the contradictions between AI digital and humanity are likely to escalate, surpass, and become the new primary contradiction, but that will not be the case at present.

For such completely different new contradictions of civilizational conflict from top-down and bottom-up perspectives, the cycles of uncertainty and chaos have only just begun. Many people believe that the uncertainty and chaos brought about by the pandemic from 2020 to 2023 have ended; in fact, this is merely the prologue to a larger epoch. The plagues, wars, famines, and deaths under the paradigm of a new era have their own pace. What we need to do is not to evade and deny, but to recognize, confront, adapt, and change.

Notes:

Note 1: The article "The Gears of Society" published in February 2020 details the cyclical process of global historical development, divided into four stages: idealism, liberalism, pragmatism, and collectivism.

Note 2: The correlation between the U.S. dollar and gold fluctuated dramatically from +0.85 to -0.89 around Trump's victory in November 2024, setting a historical record.

Note 3: Wang Anshi's reform was a joint reform movement between the monarch and ministers during the Northern Song Dynasty in Chinese history, which began in 1069 and ultimately ended in failure.

Note 4: "The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order" is a work by American political scientist Samuel Huntington, first published in 1996.

Note 5: Refers to regions where the integration of diverse civilizations is relatively balanced and the main civilization is not very dominant, such as Southeast Asia, Central and South America, Australia and Oceania, parts of Africa, and the Middle East.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。