"We have to admit that the duration and extent of the decoupling between BTC and altcoins this time far exceed historical cases."

Written by: NingNing

The Bitcoin bloodsucking market is in a self-reinforcing phase, previously only draining altcoins, but in the past two days, it has started to drain on-chain MeMe coins.

This morning, I observed that the market sentiment on Twitter has become very poor, with strong voices of crypto nihilism and BTC Maxi fundamentalism.

Many respected traders and OGs have even lamented that "the altcoin season is over."

From the historical data presented in Dune's Alts Buy Signal chart, there are four patterns between BTC and altcoins:

Pattern 1: BTC Rises, Altcoins Rise

In this pattern, both BTC and altcoins are in an upward trend, and BTC.D (BTC market cap share) may fluctuate or decline. This is the prosperous period of a bull market.

This is the time to go long. If altcoins perform stronger than BTC, you can increase your position. Conversely, caution is needed.

Pattern 2: BTC Falls, Altcoins Fall

In this pattern, both BTC and altcoins are in a downward trend.

This is the time to de-risk, purchasing more stablecoins and blue-chip tokens. The only time worth considering shorting. For long-term trend traders, it is advisable to wait for a trend reversal. For long-term holders, DCA or Buy the dip is recommended.

Pattern 3: BTC Falls, Altcoins Rise

This pattern rarely occurs. When BTC is fluctuating without a drastic decline, this may indicate a short-term altcoin season. It may be worth considering increasing risk exposure.

Pattern 4: BTC Rises, Altcoins Fall

BTC outperforms the market in an upward trend, and BTC.D continues to reach new highs. This pattern usually occurs before a halving or at the beginning of a bull market.

During this phase, it is advisable to accumulate altcoins in anticipation of an explosion.

The above is a summary of historical patterns by @cryptokoryo.

It seems we are currently in a state of this pattern, but we have to admit that the duration and extent of the decoupling between BTC and altcoins this time far exceed historical cases.

Additionally, after the approval of the BTC spot ETF, the market is concerned that it will change the funding allocation model for crypto assets, and MSTR becoming the hottest trade in US stocks yesterday seems to validate this concern, making the skepticism about the altcoin season more convincing.

However, as a perpetual crypto optimist, I can still see "disruptive innovation" rapidly iterating in areas like chain abstraction, PayFi, Web3 AI Agent, and the Bitcoin ecosystem. I can feel the "exponential growth" momentum in the MeMe coin and consumer chain sectors. Discussing the "end of history" for altcoins seems to me an irrational emotional outburst. If such a market makes you feel anxious and lost, it might be worth spending some time observing the altcoin projects that are actively working:

• Chain abstraction infra @ParticleNtwrk
• Chain abstraction fat application @infinex_app
• New paradigm infra from Cosmos: @initia
• Bitcoin ecosystem idealists: @NervosNetwork
• Bitcoin L2 backed by the world's largest Bitcoin mining company: @buildonbob
• A platform for asset issuance technology equity with Ai16z collaboration: @vvaifudotfun
• Solana L2 that successfully gained 1M followers on Tiktok: @SonicSVM

Serenity leads to far-reaching goals. A calm mind is our remedy for maintaining composure amidst the turbulent waves of trading.

That's all.

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