Analyzing the current state of the Memecoin track: Has this wave of hype reached its peak?

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Analyzing the Current Status of the Memecoin Market: Has This Wave of Speculation Peaked?

Author | Diana Ploscaru

Produced by | Plain Blockchain

On November 20, the Google search volume for "Memecoin" surged to an all-time high. Although it still pales in comparison to the peak popularity of NFTs, it indicates that the interest in Memecoins is on the rise and may have even begun to break into the mainstream.

In 2024, Memecoin has become the fastest-growing segment of the cryptocurrency market, with an average return rate reaching an astonishing +1300%. This performance has led some crypto traders and analysts to speculate that the Memecoin market may be entering a super cycle. Compared to the brief surge of Dogecoin in 2021, Memecoin has not only experienced a strong recovery but has also officially gained recognition as a segment within the industry.

So, what is the current development status of the Memecoin segment? What key factors will influence its future?

01. Memecoin Market Statistics

The earlier Memecoin market was highly volatile. In May 2021, the total market capitalization of Memecoins soared to a historical high of $89.95 billion, but then plummeted to below $20 billion in 2022, a decline of nearly 80%. However, this year, the Memecoin market has generally maintained a high level.

According to a report by CoinTelegraph, Memecoin has become the fastest-growing segment of the cryptocurrency market in 2024, with the best-performing memes achieving an average return rate of +1300%.

Analyzing the Current Status of the Memecoin Market: Has This Wave of Speculation Peaked? As of June 2024, the year-to-date performance of different cryptocurrency segments, source: Cryptonary

In fact, the performance of Memecoins at the beginning of 2024 exceeded that of all other cryptocurrency segments by tenfold. Although the RWA and AI segments have also seen significant growth since then, Memecoin remains the best-performing segment, with a year-to-date growth rate of 449% as of June.

02. The Memecoin Boom in 2024

The attention on Memecoins is particularly evident on social media. According to data from Cryptonary, discussions about Memecoins on social platforms have been steadily increasing since December 2023, especially on the X platform.

Of over 8 million interactions, the X platform accounted for 75%, far ahead of other social platforms. This is not surprising, as many Memecoin projects choose to announce presales on the X platform. Additionally, a survey by CoinGecko shows that more than one-third of cryptocurrency participants prefer X as their source for cryptocurrency news and updates.

Analyzing the Current Status of the Memecoin Market: Has This Wave of Speculation Peaked? As of October 2024, the number of interactions related to Memecoins on major social media platforms, source: Cryptonary

YouTube ranks second, accounting for 20.5% of all observed cryptocurrency content, likely due to the increasing number of crypto analysis channels and videos on the platform.

According to the same survey data from CoinGecko, 23.4% of crypto participants primarily rely on YouTube for cryptocurrency news.

In addition to social media, the search interest in Memecoins in 2024 seems to have reached unprecedented heights, as the latest search trends confirm.

Analyzing the Current Status of the Memecoin Market: Has This Wave of Speculation Peaked?

Source: Google Trends

Considering that most seasoned crypto users primarily obtain news through X (Twitter) and YouTube, this surge in search volume may partly stem from new crypto investors entering the market.

This indicates that public awareness of Memecoins is continuously increasing during this cycle. In fact, we have also observed a rise in the adoption of Memecoins. During March 2024, the number of active PEPE wallets doubled. Other top Memecoins like DOGE and WIF may also have attracted a large number of new crypto investors.

03. Record Number of Memecoin Projects in 2024

With the rise of blockchains like Solana and BSC, as well as launchers like Pump.fun, a large number of new Memecoin projects have emerged in recent years. From April to August 2024 alone, over 500 new Memecoins were added to CoinMarketCap, with a record high of 138 in April.

As of October, CoinMarketCap has listed over 3,000 Memecoins. However, considering that Pump.fun has launched over 1.7 million Memecoins to date, this is just the tip of the iceberg. This trend reflects the high level of attention currently on Memecoin projects but also exacerbates the fragmentation of market liquidity.

Since Memecoins typically rely on attention and community support, the continuous increase in numbers has led to fierce competition, gradually diminishing the potential of new projects—many of which have an average lifespan of only 5 days. According to a recent report by Web3 consulting firm BDC, 89% of Memecoin projects have a market capitalization between $0 and $1,000, and 43% of projects have zero trading volume. More notably, only 5% of Memecoins had a market capitalization exceeding $10 million in 2024 (this data is based on a sample analysis of 2,000 projects). In other words, market competition has reached an all-time high, and most Memecoin projects are destined to fail.

04. Market Recovery and Speculation of a Super Cycle

According to data from CoinMarketCap, the Memecoin market rapidly rebounded in the first quarter of 2024, with a total market capitalization exceeding $60 billion.

Analyzing the Current Status of the Memecoin Market: Has This Wave of Speculation Peaked?

Source: CoinMarketCap

Although the total market capitalization has declined since the end of the second quarter, it remains above the levels of 2022-2023. By October this year, the Memecoin market size stabilized at around $50 billion and showed signs of short-term recovery. The current market indicates that this positive trend has continued.

Some crypto traders believe that a new Memecoin super cycle may still emerge this year, with potentially more mid-cap tokens performing well compared to the few tokens that saw massive gains in the past. However, it will not be as intense as the initial surges of DOGE and SHIB in 2021. The main reason is that the number of Memecoins in the market has significantly increased since 2021.

Although the performance of OG Memecoins (like DOGE and SHIB) is still far below their peaks in 2021, Cryptonary's analysis for 2024 shows that these assets have nearly double the return rate of mainstream crypto assets like BTC, ETH, and BNB in this cycle. According to the same analysis, the performance of OG Memecoins remains relatively stable, while second and third-generation Memecoins are expected to reach new historical highs by the end of 2024.

In fact, despite market fluctuations due to the continuous price adjustments of multiple tokens, top emerging Memecoins like PEPE, POPCAT, and BONK performed strongly in the second and third quarters.

Analyzing the Current Status of the Memecoin Market: Has This Wave of Speculation Peaked?

POPCAT showed strong performance from April to September 2024, source: CoinMarketCap

Despite the overall bearish market sentiment mid-year, we still saw several projects performing exceptionally well. For instance, as of October 25, POPCAT's increase this year reached +8900.77%.

05. Memecoins Driving the Development of Solana

Overall, the number of Memecoins on the Solana platform is the highest, with many performing exceptionally well.

Solana appears to be the most popular blockchain for Memecoins in recent years, likely due to its fast transaction speeds, ease of use, and low fees. Nowadays, many emerging and rapidly growing Memecoins, such as WIF and BONK, are primarily based on Solana, not to mention the numerous projects launched through Solana's Pump.fun platform.

According to DEX aggregator data provided by BDC, these leading blockchain platforms see an average of 40,000 to 50,000 new tokens appearing daily, with Solana accounting for nearly half of the Memecoin projects. In comparison, the BNB chain is Solana's biggest competitor, but it only adds about 5,400 new tokens daily.

Analyzing the Current Status of the Memecoin Market: Has This Wave of Speculation Peaked? As of March 2024, the blockchain with the most recorded new crypto tokens, source: BDC

Editor’s Note: According to the latest CoinGecko data, the top rankings of the Solana ecosystem have not changed compared to the first quarter when the research was first conducted, continuing to lead by a wide margin, although some other ecosystems are intensifying efforts to attract more attention, gradually shrinking their share of investor interest.

Analyzing the Current Status of the Memecoin Market: Has This Wave of Speculation Peaked?

For example, the BNB chain recently announced a measure to support Memecoin innovation, aimed at helping users launch, migrate, and enhance the liquidity of new tokens. Given this, we are likely to see more BNB-based projects emerging soon.

The Base chain also ranks in the top five for new project numbers, averaging about 1,700 new tokens added daily. Considering the recent popularity of the Base chain, especially under the explosive rise of BRETT, it may soon become a strong competitor to BSC and Solana.

Although the market-leading Ethereum chain adds an average of 1,600 new tokens daily, it remains highly active in the Memecoin space, with 95% of multi-chain Memecoins supporting Ethereum. Additionally, about 40% of multi-chain Memecoins support both Ethereum and BNB. Notably, the popularity of Ethereum-native tokens like SHIB, PEPE, and FLOKI further proves that Ethereum remains one of the dominant forces in the Memecoin market.

06. Latest Memecoin Trends

Since the first quarter of 2024, we have seen an increasing number of promising Solana Memecoins, as well as some notable Base chain Memecoin projects.

Among these projects, several categories of Memecoins have been particularly popular in this cycle:

1) Animal Coins like Dogs and Cats

Doge-themed coins remain the most popular category of Memecoins. The world-famous Dogecoin (Doge) demonstrates how animal-related memes can garner strong community support in the cryptocurrency space. The success of the two OG tokens, DOGE and SHIB, is a strong testament to this phenomenon. As of 2024, this trend continues, with DOGE and SHIB still being the highest market cap Memecoins.

However, this year has also seen the emergence of other top dog-themed Memecoins, such as WIF, FLOKI, and BONK, whose performances cannot be overlooked.

According to data from Cryptonary, by March 2024, dog-themed Memecoins accounted for more than half of the total market capitalization of Memecoins, with a market cap of approximately $36 billion and a return rate of 2.5 times.

Analyzing the Current Status of the Memecoin Market: Has This Wave of Speculation Peaked? Growth of different Memecoin categories in 2024, source: Cryptonary

However, cat-themed Memecoins have also seen significant growth, becoming the fastest-growing category in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024. By March 2024, the market cap of cat-themed coins skyrocketed from $50 million to $1.8 billion, providing investors with a tenfold return.

Recently popular tokens like pufferfish and goats indicate that this trend is far from over. In the future, we are likely to see more animal-themed tokens entering the Memecoin market.

2) PolitiFi Memecoins

With the U.S. elections being a hot topic, PolitiFi has become one of the most active categories of Memecoins in the first half of this year. However, as the dust settles from the elections, this trend has cooled down.

According to Cryptonary's analysis, the market cap of the PolitiFi category surpassed $1 billion earlier this year, with some major Memecoins providing investors with returns as high as 27,000% at their peak.

However, many crypto assets have significantly retraced since then. As of October, the market cap of PolitiFi has dropped to $634 million, covering 133 listed tokens on CoinMarketCap.

It is important to note that many PolitiFi coins have self-reported market caps, so actual data may vary significantly. Currently, ConstitutionDAO is the largest project in this field, with a market cap exceeding $400 million. On the other hand, many PolitiFi coins have fallen 80%–90% from their historical highs.

Overall, PolitiFi coins exhibit high volatility (more severe than other Memecoins), and few tokens can maintain lasting community support.

3) Celebrity-themed Memecoins

While celebrity-themed Memecoins have garnered significant attention in recent years, they have also attracted considerable skepticism and criticism.

Memecoins endorsed by celebrities often generate temporary buzz, but the vast majority of projects have very short lifespans. Additionally, these tokens are often seen as tools for exit scams, as project teams typically use investor funds as liquidity to exit.

For example, TrumpCoin (DJT), launched in June 2024, had one wallet address controlling 67% of the token supply. Such situations often signal a risk of rug pulls, making it difficult for the asset to recover. In fact, as of October, DJT's price had dropped 97.72% from its historical peak.

Analyzing the Current Status of the Memecoin Market: Has This Wave of Speculation Peaked? Celebrity-themed memes often have short lifespans

This concerning trend of dubious projects has even drawn public criticism from Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, who explicitly stated that many celebrity-themed Memecoins offer little real value to investors.

The failure of TrumpCoin (DJT) is not an isolated case. According to an analysis by CryptoPotato, data from July 2024 shows that since June, the average price of all new celebrity Memecoins launched on Solana has dropped by 94%. Even the better-performing projects have generally seen price declines of over 70%. Currently, celebrity coins like JENNER and LILPUMP are still priced well below their historical highs.

Despite this, a few projects remain active in the market, primarily due to ongoing discussions on social media. The most notable example is Iggy Azalea's token MOTHER, which, as of 2024, has still risen by 192.8%, although it has retreated from its historical peak.

However, like PolitiFi category Memecoins, celebrity-themed Memecoins, while often generating hype, seem destined for short-lived existence.

07. What Are the Most Popular Memecoins Currently?

Although most Memecoins are doomed to fail, some have withstood the test of time thanks to strong community support. Especially in recent months, some emerging Memecoins have gradually established themselves in the market with a solid community foundation.

Here are the top ten Memecoins ranked by market cap as of November 20, 2024.

1) Dogecoin (DOGE)

DOGE is the earliest and most resilient Memecoin in the market, having weathered over a decade of ups and downs. DOGE was launched on the BNB chain in December 2013, with slow early adoption. Although it reached an all-time high of $0.7376 between April and May 2021, the subsequent Memecoin market saw a significant correction in 2022. It wasn't until this cycle that DOGE experienced a major breakthrough, rebounding first this year, starting to rise in early February, and breaking the $0.2 mark in March, reaching its highest level since December 2021. Despite some price pullbacks during this period, the increase this year has been considerable, with a market cap far exceeding other Memecoins, reaching approximately $57.62 billion as of November 20, ranking first.

2) Shiba Inu (SHIB)

SHIB was initially a project on Ethereum aimed at replicating the success of DOGE, and it has achieved significant results. Since its launch, SHIB has accumulated gains of hundreds of thousands of times, reaching an all-time high during the Memecoin craze of 2021, but subsequently experienced declines in 2022 and 2023. In 2024, SHIB has risen again, with a market cap of approximately $14.5 billion as of November 20, currently ranking second on CoinMarketCap.

3) Pepe (PEPE)

PEPE was launched on Ethereum in April 2023, and its price has accumulated gains of hundreds of thousands of times. The significant rise of PEPE began in March 2024, largely driven by the Certik audit report released in December 2023, which scored its code security at a high 91%. In the recent Memecoin frenzy, it surged again, with a market cap of approximately $8.54 billion as of November 20.

4) Bonk (BONK)

BONK is one of the many Doge-themed Memecoins released last year, and its price has been steadily rising since October 2023. It is also one of the few Memecoin projects with extensive cross-chain interoperability, allowing transfers between five major blockchains, including Ethereum, BNB, Solana, and Polygon. As of November 20, its market cap is approximately $4.1 billion.

5) Dogwifhat (WIF)

WIF is another emerging Doge-themed Memecoin, launched on Solana in mid-December 2023. It began trading in March 2024 and quickly became the first top Memecoin to break the $1 mark. This news further boosted WIF's popularity, leading it to reach an all-time high price of $4.85 on March 31, 2024. At one point, WIF's market cap even surpassed that of PEPE, but the price later fluctuated. Currently, WIF's price is around $3.4, with a market cap of approximately $3.4 billion as of November 20.

6) FLOKI (FLOKI)

FLOKI is one of the earlier launched Memecoins and has recently experienced a resurgence. The coin is inspired by Elon Musk's Shiba Inu, Floki, and was released in mid-2021 on both Ethereum and BNB chains. Within four months of its launch, the price reached an all-time high, but then entered a downward trend. In 2024, market enthusiasm was reignited as FLOKI may become an asset in the upcoming Valhalla NFT game. In June 2024, the coin reached a new all-time high of $0.0003462, but the price has since retreated. As of November 20, FLOKI has a market cap of approximately $2.32 billion, remaining one of the leading Memecoins.

7) Brett (BRETT)

BRETT is one of the few top Memecoins on the Base blockchain and is the second most popular Pepe-themed Memecoin of 2024. The meme was released in March 2024, initially performing poorly, but began to rise from mid-May and reached an all-time high of $0.193 in early June. As of November 20, its market cap is approximately $1.73 billion.

8) Popcat (POPCAT)

POPCAT is one of the stars of this Memecoin super cycle. Launched on Solana in December 2023, it initially saw a decline until it began to rebound in early 2024. Starting in March, POPCAT entered an upward channel and reached its first all-time high of $0.97 in July. Despite significant fluctuations in the third quarter of 2024, it strengthened again in early September. As of November 20, its market cap has reached $1.67 billion, which is quite impressive for a Memecoin launched less than 12 months ago.

9) Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT)

PNUT is a Memecoin launched on the Solana chain in November 2024, inspired by a euthanized internet-famous squirrel named Peanut. The event sparked heated discussions on social media, propelling the token to rapid popularity. PNUT surged 800% within a week of its launch, reaching a market cap of $1.6 billion and listing on exchanges like Binance and OKX, becoming a market hotspot. As of November 20, its market cap is approximately $1.61 billion.

10) Goatseus Maximus (GOAT)

GOAT officially launched in October 2024, founded by Andy Ayrey. Initially an AI comedy experiment, GOAT gradually evolved into a phenomenon of "AI doctrine" with a cult-like follower culture due to its viral spread on social media. GOAT was initiated on the Pump.fun platform on Solana and was promoted by an AI account called Truth Terminal after its launch, quickly gaining popularity and attracting significant attention. Its market cap once surpassed $500 million, triggering a wave of memecoin and related project airdrops, making it another dark horse in the 2024 memecoin trend. As of November 20, its market cap is approximately $1.1 billion.

08. Key Factors Influencing Memecoin Trends

The trends of Memecoins are influenced by various factors, with the following being key drivers:

1) High Return Potential

Compared to more mature cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, Memecoins attract many investors due to their high-risk, high-reward characteristics. Traditional cryptocurrencies have higher prices and lower volatility, often requiring significant capital investment to achieve substantial returns. In contrast, Memecoins are more appealing due to their low prices, especially during the presale phase, which lowers the investment threshold.

Memecoins have enormous return potential, particularly in the initial months after a project launches, where prices often see significant increases. For example, since its release in December 2023, POPCAT's price has risen by +8900.77%. In other words, if $2,500 was invested last December, the current investment return could exceed $220,000 (based on October data).

2) Social Sentiment

Social sentiment is one of the key factors influencing the demand and price trends of Memecoins. Simply put, the more hype and attention a Memecoin receives, the greater the community engagement, which in turn drives up the token's valuation. A prime example is the resurgence of Dogecoin in 2023: just 15 minutes after Musk posted a photo of his dog Floki, Dogecoin's market cap surged by $500 million. Meanwhile, FLOKI also skyrocketed, with its price increasing by nearly 50% within an hour.

Overall, the price fluctuations of Memecoins are closely related to community enthusiasm, and discussions on social media often serve as the main catalyst for price changes.

Analyzing the Current Status of the Memecoin Market: Has This Wave of Speculation Peaked?

This highlights the significant impact of social media discourse and public support on Memecoin trends. When there is enough hype surrounding a token, it can trigger dramatic market fluctuations in a short period.

3) Development of Utility

A common criticism of Memecoins is that they are purely speculative assets with no real utility. Moreover, due to the rapid decline of hype, many Memecoins have very short lifespans.

However, not every Memecoin is like this; some have integrated into broader ecosystems. For example, Memecoins like FLOKI can serve as assets in crypto games, offering unique in-game purchases, rewards, or staking opportunities.

Similar developments in other sectors of the crypto industry, such as gaming, AI, and DeFi, may provide real-world use cases and help maintain active communities, extending the lifespans and relevance of these tokens beyond the initial hype cycle.

In fact, we have already seen the continuous integration of Memecoins in crypto gaming, with new Shiba Inu-style play-to-earn Memecoins on the rise.

4) Security and Assurance Issues

Of course, Memecoins are also controversial for various reasons. First, their high volatility is almost inevitable, especially when these tokens lack real-world utility. Many people equate investing in Memecoins with gambling.

Coupled with this already unstable market and the prevalence of pump-and-dump schemes, the risk of losing investments seems to outweigh the opportunity for short-term massive gains.

Analyzing the Current Status of the Memecoin Market: Has This Wave of Speculation Peaked?

The above image is an example of a pump-and-dump scheme seen in PolitiFi Memecoins. Unsurprisingly, many investors may avoid Memecoins because of this. However, scams in the Memecoin market continue to emerge.

Despite all cryptocurrencies having a unique crypto asset ID (UCID), bad actors can still use the same codes and symbols to impersonate established memes, attempting to deceive unsuspecting investors into purchasing their categories.

Analyzing the Current Status of the Memecoin Market: Has This Wave of Speculation Peaked?

The above image tells the story of two seemingly identical PEPE tokens. Because smart contracts can be exploited, a simple mistake in investment can mean your crypto assets are stolen.

09. Conclusion

It is evident that the current Memecoin market is thriving, surpassing levels seen before 2023, and performing better than other areas of cryptocurrency.

Social media interactions have also reached an all-time high, indicating that overall market sentiment remains bullish. The success of new Memecoins this season has even sparked speculation about a potential super cycle. However, with thousands of new Memecoins flooding the market, fragmentation is increasing, and many projects are destined to fail.

Therefore, while the Memecoin market shows promising growth, given the current market dynamics, it is crucial to be aware of the risks before investing in new projects. DYOR (Do Your Own Research) is more important than ever.

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