#Bitcoin miners have failed so far this cycle.

Just look at the data...

🟠 Bitcoin $BTCUSD

🔵 BTC miners vs. BTC $WGMI / $BTC

They have zero correlation, even though they should.

In other words, anyone who bought miners (on the aggregate) since BTC bottomed in Nov.'22 have underperformed spot $BTC.

Yes, miners have gone up in value... but they've been more volatile than BTC and actually underperformed BTC since the bear market bottom in Q4'22.

So what's the point of owning them if they give you lower returns are higher volatility? In mathematical terms, that's called a lower Sharpe ratio.

There is no point.

If you don't know what the Sharpe ratio is or if you have to look it up, you have no business commenting on this post, telling me that I'm wrong, or that I'm going to eat my words.

FYI, this is exactly what I said in March 2024 when I publicly denounced the miners in favor of MicroStrategy and everyone in the BTC mining community turned on me.

I ate my words for a few weeks, but we all know how that story ended... $MSTR is the darling of the cycle and continues to breakout and make new highs, both on an absolute and relative basis (vs. BTC and vs. miners).

I just follow the data and the charts, objectively.

I was bullish on the miners one year ago.

Everyone told me I was crazy.

It was a hell of a trade.

Then I adapted, based on market data, and everyone told me I was crazy again.

As far as I'm concerned, I've been proven right, once again.

Let's continue to observe how this evolves, but my general belief is that miners have been (and will likely continue to be) a poor allocation of capital on a relative basis vs. spot $BTC... because that's exactly what they've been for the past 18 months (WGMI/BTC peaked in July 2023).

I don't invest based on emotions.

I invest based on objective truths.

Cheers fam.

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