In the past week, BTC has started to accelerate its rise, completing breakthroughs of $93,000 and $94,000 ATH in succession. Although the BTC price has slightly retreated at the moment, it still fluctuates around $93,400, with a 24-hour maximum increase of over 4.5% (the above data is sourced from Binance spot, November 20, 17:00).
Currently, BTC has become the only investment category in Trump's economy that has not yet given back its gains. Due to extreme levels of long positions and concerns about rising yields, the US stock market has given back some of its recent gains. Although geopolitical tensions have intensified recently, the US stock market closed relatively smoothly on November 19, led by Nvidia's upcoming earnings report and tech stocks, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 slightly up, while the Dow Jones slightly down.
Under this premise, frequent personnel appointments by Trump, a potential slowdown in the pace of US interest rate cuts, and the simultaneous rise in geopolitical risks and BTC's market awareness have led to a peak in secret FOMO sentiment driven by the Meme market. Investors need to closely monitor market indicators while capturing profits and managing investment risks.
Market Analysis
Aside from the continuous escalation of geopolitical tensions, Trump's personnel appointments may be a crucial turning point for the future of cryptocurrency. Whether it is the appointment of the Secretary of the Treasury or subsequent appointments at the Federal Reserve, or future SEC policies, all determine the fate of BTC market adoption.
Geopolitical tensions rise, safe-haven assets are sought after by investors
On November 19, local time, the US Department of Defense announced it would provide Ukraine with a batch of weapons worth at least $250 million. The weapons included in this aid package consist of multiple rocket launcher systems, ammunition, Javelin anti-armor munitions, and other facilities and accessories.
Affected by this information, the US stock market entered a brief panic after opening, with the fear index reaching 17.93, the highest since November 5. Market analysts believe that the escalating geopolitical risks will pose risks to market stability, and with a new president about to take office, the president's attitude will exacerbate uncertainty.
Given the performance of the US economy, the Federal Reserve may adjust short-term interest rate cut expectations
On November 15, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that due to the strong US economy, the Federal Reserve does not need to rush to lower interest rates and will carefully monitor to ensure that certain inflation indicators remain within acceptable ranges. Powell reiterated that the path of the Federal Reserve's policy interest rates will depend on upcoming data and the evolution of the economic outlook. He mentioned that the inflation rate is approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target but has not yet reached it. The Federal Reserve will closely monitor core inflation indicators for goods and services excluding housing, which have been declining over the past two years. "We expect these indicators to continue to fluctuate within a recent range, and the path to the Federal Reserve's 2% target may be bumpy at times. But we still believe we are on the right track regarding inflation."
The Federal Reserve's next meeting will take place from December 17 to 18.
Who will be the US Secretary of the Treasury? A key focus for this week
The market is closely watching the cabinet layout under Trump's administration. Several key positions have become clear, and the appointment of the Secretary of the Treasury is highly anticipated, with current popular candidates being Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick (CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald). According to CNN, Trump is expected to announce his Treasury Secretary candidate early on Wednesday local time.
Bessent is considered a "safe choice" with extensive experience in capital markets, while Lutnick's company is one of the custodians of Tether, thus receiving particular attention from the cryptocurrency community. Market speculation suggests that regardless of who enters the cabinet, both candidates are seen as "supportive of cryptocurrency," providing the cryptocurrency industry with an opportunity to continue receiving political support and promoting the long-term development of BTC as a reserve asset.
Sources: Trump's team lists crypto lawyer Teresa Goody Guillén as a candidate for SEC chair
According to CoinDesk, citing informed sources, Trump's transition team is considering listing Teresa Goody Guillén, a partner at the law firm BakerHostetler and co-head of its blockchain team, as one of the candidates for the next SEC chair. Goody Guillén is an experienced securities lawyer with experience serving the SEC and representing blockchain companies and traditional businesses against the agency.
Insiders in Washington say Trump is looking for a non-bureaucratic individual who supports cryptocurrency to thoroughly reform the SEC. Unlike Trump's first term, the election process for the second term is expected to be swift and orderly, with the SEC chair candidate likely to be selected before Thanksgiving.
BlackRock's IBIT options see nearly $1.9 billion in total trading volume on the first day, with 82% being call options
Data monitored by Bloomberg senior ETF analyst James Seyffart shows that the final statistics for the first day of BlackRock's IBIT options indicate a nominal exposure of just under $1.9 billion traded through 354,000 contracts, with 82% being call options (289,000 contracts) and 18% being put options (65,000 contracts), a ratio of 4.4:1.
Investment Advice
Currently, the market is experiencing severe FOMO sentiment, and it is recommended that investors remain rational, ensuring robust risk control while properly allocating assets to capture profits and further mitigate risks.
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