Master's Discussion on Hot Topics:

First, let's talk about MicroStrategy. In the past week, it spent $4.6 billion to acquire 51,780 bitcoins at an average price of $88,627. The amount of bitcoin purchased exceeds the total inflow of all ETFs in November, which was $3.5 billion. A single company is taking on the entire Nasdaq and NYSE, which is simply astonishing!

Why does the Master mention this news first today? Once you read it, you'll understand. First of all, MicroStrategy has truly defined "buying" with its "buy, buy, buy" approach! Relying on issuing bonds and increasing stock offerings, it continuously buys bitcoin, making it seem as if bitcoin is the only future in this world.

While other companies earn dollars, it goes straight for "accumulating bitcoin," even creating a "Bitcoin Yield" to assess how much it has bought and how efficient it is.

What is Bitcoin Yield? Simply put, it looks at how much bitcoin it has bought and how many shares have been diluted, treating bitcoin as performance. Other companies calculate EPS (earnings per share), while it calculates "per share bitcoin growth," and upon looking, it turns out that its price-to-earnings ratio can rival that of Apple and Tesla, even surpassing them.

The key is that this company dares to gamble, using low-interest long-term debt instruments to raise money from the traditional bond market to buy bitcoin. Bond investors are also debating, knowing that buying bitcoin directly through ETFs is more convenient, yet they prefer to buy MicroStrategy's bonds, possibly drawn by this new play.

What's even more intriguing is that this company has budgeted a scenario: if bitcoin rises by 10%, its stock price could rise by 55%, with the price-to-earnings ratio remaining unchanged. Isn't that infuriating? So the answer is clear: MicroStrategy is not playing with bitcoin, but rather leveraging faith.

It acts like a bitcoin trust, and in the future, its valuation will depend on three major factors: high bitcoin yield, rising bitcoin prices, and unique premium capabilities in the financing market. The market should not only view MicroStrategy as a bitcoin trust but also recognize its special value within the bitcoin ecosystem.

Recently, bitcoin has also been in a large range of sideways fluctuations. Just looking at the candlestick chart, it doesn't even deserve to fall beautifully. Moreover, with the upper band of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart continuously rising, the Master really can't see any intention of it wanting to go down.

However, from a medium-term perspective and using technical analysis, the Master personally believes there will be two scenarios: first, a rise followed by a pullback, meaning that before the end of the month, bitcoin might make another push, reaching a new high of 95,850, and then start to decline.

At that time, altcoins will definitely also perform a little climax. But don't get too excited during the rise; it's wise to reduce some positions and secure profits.

Alternatively, if bitcoin slips below 86,000 before the end of the month, that could be a good short-term opportunity to buy the dip on altcoins. Although it might be painful to break below this level, if it really happens, don't panic; essentially, the market is giving us a discount.

From a larger perspective, the Master personally believes it won't drop too much. Because looking at the issuance of stablecoins, the liquidity pool is quite full; Trump is back, and his regulatory talk hasn't stirred up any major waves yet.

Looking at market sentiment, it doesn't seem like a collapse is imminent. So in the short term, a drop of a few thousand points is possible, but it’s still a bit difficult for it to fall to very low levels.

Additionally, for friends holding medium to long-term positions, a pullback of a few thousand points can be an opportunity to build some long positions. After breaking new highs, you can reduce some of your base positions. If bitcoin experiences a spike, remember not to impulsively buy at the peak!

Now, let's talk about the struggling Ethereum. Here's how the Master sees it. Although there hasn't been much movement now, the future potential is huge. First, the U.S. Ethereum ETF has opened staking, and a 3% yield is still attractive to large institutions, especially when U.S. Treasury yields decline in the future, Ethereum staking will become even more sought after, potentially triggering explosive rallies.

Additionally, as funds flow back for catch-up, in the later stages of a bull market, funds may flow back into ETH for catch-up, showcasing the advantages of the "doomsday chariot." In contrast, SOL's recent independent performance is due to the on-chain dog coin craze, while ETH currently lacks a wealth creation effect on-chain.

Finally, looking back historically, in the last cycle, Ethereum took a full month longer than bitcoin to break the previous cycle's high. Following this rhythm, we might as well wait and see if Ethereum will catch up in December or January and break the previous high of 4,877.

In fact, there’s a lot of significance behind this; the order of time often corresponds to the direction of capital flow. First, bitcoin leads the way, then Ethereum takes the baton, and finally, funds will gradually flow into altcoins. This relay of capital transfer is not only the market's rhythm but can also be seen as the inevitable path of liquidity.

So looking at it now, Ethereum has a good chance to catch up. Don't rush to conclusions; the market is like a master, skilled at making the final move. December or January may give us an unexpected answer.

Master's Trend Analysis:

After refreshing its historical high in the early morning, bitcoin is currently undergoing range adjustment. After breaking through the top of the ascending triangle in the Master’s chart yesterday, the price has retreated to the current level. As long as the price holds above the ascending trend line, the view of a rebound can be maintained.

Although the Master personally believes there are signs of market overheating, on-chain data does not yet indicate overheating. Therefore, even if it takes some time, the medium to long-term bullish view can still be maintained.

Resistance Levels:

First Resistance Level: 92,200

Second Resistance Level: 92,800

Support Levels:

First Support Level: 91,500

Second Support Level: 91,000

Today's Suggestions:

If the price breaks through the first resistance again, the view of a rebound can continue to be maintained. However, compared to a one-time breakthrough of the current historical high of 94K, it is expected that the price may first experience an adjustment before reaching 94K, and then look forward to a new rebound.

Additionally, the previously strong resistance level of 91.5K has been broken and converted into a support level. In the short term, the ascending trend line along with the 60-day and 120-day moving averages can be used as phased support areas.

If the price falls below the aforementioned support lines but shows a candlestick pattern with a long lower shadow, it can be seen as an entry opportunity. However, if a large bearish candlestick appears, one should be cautious of further pullback risks.

Currently, it is judged to be in the adjustment phase after refreshing the historical high, with the support area set at the 91K level, maintaining a rebound view.

As the rebound trend forms, the support area should be gradually adjusted upwards, observing whether the market shows signs of bottoming. If the previous support area was at 88-89K, it can now be adjusted to 90-91K.

11.20 Master's Segment Pre-Set:

Long Entry Reference: Buy in the 91,000-91,500 range, Target: 92,800-93,600

Short Entry Reference: No shorts today

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (public account: Coin God Master Chen). Master Chen is the same name across the internet. For more real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

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