Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)

Last night around 7 PM, the VItalik address transferred 32 ETH across chains to Base and minted 400 NFTs called Oracle Patron. After gaining community attention, the minting speed surged. Data from OpenSea shows that after the minting was completed, the trading price quickly rose from a cost of 0.08 ETH to a peak of 0.25 ETH. As of the time of writing, the floor price still reached 0.232 ETH, an increase of nearly 200%, with a total market value of approximately 10.8 million USD.

(Note: The VItalik address is 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA96045)

What project does the Oracle Patron NFT come from? What are its use cases or rights? Odaily Planet Daily will analyze this in the article.

Prediction Market Truemarkets

The issuer of the Oracle Patron NFT is Truemarkets, a binary prediction market that operates similarly to Polymarket. It simplifies each event into a yes or no question and creates corresponding binary trading markets. The two answers are priced in real-time based on the market's perceived odds, balanced by traders and market makers providing liquidity for YES and NO tokens. Once the outcome is determined, the token corresponding to the correct answer can be redeemed for 1 USD, while the opposite token becomes worthless.

(Reference reading: “A Detailed Reveal of the Technical Implementation Behind Polymarket”, “As the US Election Approaches, Is Polymarket's Data More Reliable?”)

What’s Different?

Unlike Polymarket, which creates markets through proposal reviews, the current market creation on Truemarkets is limited to whitelisted addresses. In the official documentation, Truemarkets states that market creation will also be delegated to an AI Agent and will achieve permissionless market creation by 2025, although specific processes and methods have not yet been disclosed.

NFT and Token Use Cases

According to the official documentation, the current sole purpose of the Oracle Patron NFT is as proof of rights for the TRUE token airdrop, with each NFT allocated 2666.67 TRUE tokens, totaling 40.19 million tokens, which accounts for 40.19% of the total token supply. Therefore, based on the current NFT market value, the total token market value is estimated to be 25 million USD.

So, what is the purpose of the token? According to the current official documentation, TRUE is used solely as a governance token, granting token holders the authority to control protocol fees, manage the oracle committee, and more. The oracle committee is responsible for managing market creation, incentive distribution, dispute resolution, etc., but there has been no substantial incentive content related to the token observed.

How are the prediction markets doing after the election?

The US election is undoubtedly a key support for Polymarket and other prediction markets. After Trump's victory, DefiLlama data shows that the TVL of prediction markets has dropped from a peak of 545 million USD to the current 134 million USD, and has been consolidating at this level for a week. In the TVL rankings, Polymarket leads with about 100 million USD, while the second place, Azuro, has only 7.8 million USD, showing a significant gap.

In terms of products, Polymarket has not updated for several days, with the current focus still on updating various markets. The top-ranked market is “How many basis points will the Federal Reserve cut in December?”

Similarly, Azuro has not had any major updates in products and mechanisms over the past few months, focusing on expanding the market. At the end of October, Azuro launched special markets, allowing the creation of events outside the regular sports or political scope, with examples like “Will CZ return to Binance after being released?” and “Will BTC hit a new high before December 2024?”

It can be seen that the prediction market mechanism has entered a relatively mature and stable stage, and how to discover and create betting topics that are “popular with the people” will be a key focus for development in the foreseeable future.

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