Master Discusses Hot Topics:

First, let's talk about the Fear and Greed Index, which skyrocketed to 90 this Monday. It officially announces that the market has entered a state of extreme greed, as if everyone has become a character in the crypto world.

However, history tells us that, in my personal opinion, this is not necessarily a good thing. In the past few years, there have been three instances where the index reached 90 or even higher: at the end of June 2019, from the end of October 2020 to early February 2021, and in early March 2024.

Looking back at historical performance, the peaks in 2019 and 2024 were like the climax of a bubble drama. They came quickly and left just as fast, as the market was soon brought back to reality from the extreme fantasy of (I will definitely get rich).

The only time the extreme greed state lasted for more than ten weeks was during the bull market from October 2020 to the first quarter of 2021. I remember that the greed index even peaked at 95, and market sentiment was off the charts. What was the result? It wasn't until all retail investors' enthusiasm was drained that the market finally began to slow down.

So the question arises: is this a quick reversal, or a long-lasting celebration at the peak of a bull market? History may be reminding us: in a volatile market transitioning from bear to bull, extreme greed is like putting on a brave face; it simply cannot hold up.

However, once we enter the peak of a bull market, it becomes an emotional marathon, until everyone is exhausted at the finish line.

But in the face of the ebb and flow of market sentiment, we shouldn't take it too seriously. Perhaps in the end, we can only sigh: overthinking, retail investors will always be retail investors, only this time it's a "self-seasoned" version!

The FOMO sentiment among American investors is like a faded internet celebrity. Last night, the surge in the U.S. market from the opening until dawn was essentially ignited by the explosive news that five stocks, including $MSTR, collectively bought BTC.

But now it seems that this fire hasn't even fully ignited before it has started to cool down, turning into a small exit of liquidity.

Even though Bitcoin briefly surged to 92K, its price is still like a traffic star wandering on the edge of trending topics, hovering around 90K. The excitement of the elections has already passed, and while the news from MSTR created a stir for a moment, it seems it couldn't keep Bitcoin strong for too long (you know, it's hard to stay strong these days).

Of course, I still don't recommend rushing to short, as the sentiment is cooling down. However, the market's speculative expectations have not been rewritten, and you never know when a big move might come that makes you question your life choices.

In the past couple of days, Bitcoin's turnover rate has rarely dropped below the weekend levels, and it has actually decreased after the U.S. stock market opened. This indicates that the high turnover triggered by price increases over the weekend has weakened, and currently, the main players are short-term profit-takers above $80,000. Support levels are between $87,000 and $91,000; although the market is not yet in panic, it still needs time to build a bottom.

As for the many people mentioning the URPD (Unrealized Price Distribution) gaps at 77K, 78K, and 82.5K, while the price may not necessarily need to drop to fill these gaps, history shows that these gaps will eventually be repaired.

Master Looks at Trends:

Last night, Bitcoin experienced significant volatility due to the dual impact of concerns about slowing interest rate cuts and expectations of relaxed regulations in the U.S. stock market.

Currently, the market has turned upward due to improved sentiment among institutional investors and has held onto the low points in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the trends within the converging patterns to grasp the direction.

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 91500

Second Resistance Level: 92300

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 90400

Second Support Level: 89500

Today's Suggestions:

During the day, it is necessary to monitor whether Bitcoin can hold the lower support line while observing the resistance breakthrough situation above the densely packed area of the previous range. When support is maintained at the 120-day moving average and the lower trend line, the possibility of breaking through the resistance zone will increase.

In an ideal scenario, if the price does not touch the second support level, it will be more favorable for an upward movement. If the first support level is maintained, the range of 90.4K to 90.8K can be set as a short-term phased entry zone, and the rebound expectation can be maintained.

Currently, it is important to focus on whether the key support level can be held. If the support is maintained, the rebound view continues; if it breaks below support, a trend reversal should be considered.

11.19 Master’s Band Trading Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Light long near 90400; if it retraces to 89500, go long directly. Target: 91500-92300

Short Entry Reference: Light short at 91500-91800; short directly near 92300. Target: 90400-89500

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