Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
As the second term of President Trump approaches, some key positions in his cabinet have emerged over the past few days, but the competition for the position of Treasury Secretary has become increasingly intense.
According to current market expectations, the nomination for the new Treasury Secretary may be announced as early as this week, but the Trump team has not yet made a final decision on the candidate. This morning, Fox Business reporter Charles Gasparino revealed that the Trump team has sought advice from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and at least one other BlackRock executive; additionally, Trump will meet with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong to discuss personnel issues for the next administration.
The prediction market Polymarket has opened a betting pool for the Treasury Secretary position, and as of around 10:00, the trading volume in this pool has exceeded $2 million. The current popular potential candidates are as follows (only covering the top 6 candidates, with the remaining candidates having very low probabilities):
Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh;
Key Square Group founder Scott Bessent;
Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick;
Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan;
Former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer;
Senator Bill Hagerty.
Currently, the market is clearly looking forward to a person with a more friendly attitude towards cryptocurrency taking control of the Treasury, thereby providing a more relaxed growth environment for the industry. Next, Odaily Planet Daily will sequentially review the past attitudes of these six potential candidates towards the crypto industry.
Probability Front-Runner: Kevin Warsh
First of all, it is worth celebrating that the current candidate with the highest nomination probability, former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh (46%), has long been seen as a supporter of cryptocurrency— even before Trump's change in attitude.
As early as the beginning of 2021, in an interview with CNBC, Warsh stated, "In an economic environment where the dollar is weakening, Bitcoin makes sense as part of an investment portfolio."
In 2022, Warsh also invested in Bitwise, one of the main proponents of BTC and ETH ETFs.
However, there is some controversy surrounding Warsh as he has repeatedly expressed support for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which may not sit well with the decentralized spirit of the cryptocurrency industry.
The latest news is that the Trump team supports Warsh to serve as the U.S. Treasury Secretary, and Warsh has been invited to Trump's Mar-a-Lago for discussions, but related discussions are still ongoing.
Soros' Former Deputy: Scott Bessent
Scott Bessent, founder of the hedge fund Key Square Group and former deputy to Soros, was once seen as the most likely candidate for the next Treasury Secretary, and his nomination probability had previously led Polymarket. However, after "American Guardian" Elon Musk publicly opposed Bessent's appointment, his nomination probability dropped significantly.
As Musk criticized Bessent for being "business as usual," Bessent is considered a more traditional figure, with the AP having labeled him a "skeptic of cryptocurrency" in a report.
However, as Trump increasingly supports cryptocurrency, Bessent's attitude has also changed; he stated in July that "I am excited about the president embracing cryptocurrency, I think it aligns very well with the Republican Party, cryptocurrency represents freedom, and the cryptocurrency economy will continue to exist."
The latest news is that Bessent may instead take on the role of Chairman of the National Economic Council, but this outcome is also not yet confirmed.
The Man Behind Tether: Howard Lutnick
While Elon Musk publicly opposed Bessent, he also openly supported Howard Lutnick, co-chair of Trump's transition team and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald. As a result, Lutnick's nomination probability had once led, but later declined due to rumors of Warsh's imminent rise.
Lutnick is a staunch supporter of cryptocurrency and can even be seen as the most pro-crypto among the major candidates.
Lutnick's Cantor Fitzgerald manages over half of Tether's stablecoin reserves; Lutnick has personally spoken at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville and advocated for classifying Bitcoin as a commodity similar to gold and oil, calling for clearer regulation in the cryptocurrency space.
The $700 Billion Helmsman: Marc Rowan
Marc Rowan, CEO of asset management giant Apollo Global Management, has only recently been mentioned as a potential candidate.
Although Rowan's company focuses on alternative asset investments, he has rarely commented on cryptocurrency. In 2022, Rowan stated in an interview with Bloomberg that the ecosystem built around cryptocurrency is simply amazing; however, this year, when asked whether cryptocurrency would play a role in the future of the U.S. financial system, he said that the topic "exceeded his understanding."
The Financial Times reported that some Wall Street executives hold a positive attitude towards Rowan's potential nomination, but they also believe it would be difficult for Rowan to give up his position as CEO of Apollo Global Management, which has an asset management scale of $700 billion.
The "Trade War" Architect: Robert Lighthizer
Robert Lighthizer has not explicitly expressed his attitude towards cryptocurrency, but the market should still pay attention to Lighthizer's potential appointment.
Lighthizer served as the former U.S. Trade Representative during Trump's first term and is seen as a "hardcore trade protectionist." Politico even referred to him as the “architect” of Trump's tariff trade war with China, and the market generally worries that Lighthizer's appointment will affect the vitality and stability of global trade activities.
The Crypto Legislation Promoter: Bill Hagerty
Tennessee Republican Senator Bill Hagerty has a low probability of becoming Treasury Secretary, but as a senator, he has actively promoted the advancement of cryptocurrency-related legislation.
In October of this year, Hagerty released a legislative discussion draft aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins. Investment bank TD Cowen reported that this draft could become the outline for future legislation in 2025.
Hagerty has also expressed support for Trump's efforts to make the U.S. a cryptocurrency hub and mentioned in July regarding the Bitcoin industry that “we need to ensure this happens in the U.S.”.
The Regulatory Spring for Cryptocurrency
In summary, the next U.S. Treasury Secretary candidate is expected to emerge soon. From the perspective of potential successors, most of the names that have been revealed so far hold a relatively friendly attitude towards cryptocurrency, except for the ambiguous Robert Lighthizer.
For the cryptocurrency industry, which has long suffered from regulatory challenges, the next few years may be the most relaxed growth environment in the industry's history, and this regulatory spring may be the best opportunity for all parties in the industry to seek development.
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