Author: S4mmy’s Web3 Snippets
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
I will use my ten years of experience in traditional finance and corporate sectors to help you break down complex issues into easily understandable chunks.
After the presidential election results were announced, Bitcoin's price surged sharply, with Trump expected to take office in January.
Last week, Bitcoin's price rose by 35%, slightly retreating after reaching 90,000. Data sourced from Trading View.
The trading volume of Bitcoin-related products reached 38 billion USD.
BlackRock's BTC ETF has now surpassed the market value of gold and silver ETFs.
In terms of corporations:
- Coinbase's stock rose by 15% in pre-market trading,
- MicroStrategy currently holds over 20 billion USD in Bitcoin and has purchased an additional 2 billion USD worth of Bitcoin at market prices.
On the government side, there is a proposal suggesting that the U.S. government should purchase 200,000 Bitcoins annually over the next five years, which would give them 6% of the total supply by 2030.
Currently, the U.S. is a country holding 213,000 Bitcoins, with the government holding 2.2% of the total supply, but this percentage may increase.
The total market capitalization of the crypto market has reached a new historical high of 2.9 trillion USD—never before has there been so much capital in the cryptocurrency market.
Market Indicators to Watch:
Market dynamics have shifted from a bear market to a bull market, and investment strategies have changed to a majority of assets only going up.
Be aware of objective indicators of market turning points:
Global Liquidity (referencing M2 supply)
Tracking certain related assets or indicators—M2 supply (3-month lag) is highly correlated with Bitcoin prices.
Data sourced from Zero Hedge.
What does this mean? This is actually a reference indicator for global liquidity. The theories of Lyn Alden and Raoul Pal suggest that liquidity in the market becomes abundant and is invested in assets, hence these economic decisions have a 3-month lag. This correlation indicates that if Bitcoin continues to track M2 without significant deviation, we may see Bitcoin prices reach 100,000 by the end of the year.
Fear and Greed Index (69, Nice)
Source: Coin Glass
When using various indices, be aware of the differences in their methodologies, as some indices are more sensitive than others. Coin Stats provides a relatively reasonable solution that aligns with the actual market situation.
Coinbase Wallet Downloads Increased by 12% in the Past 24 Hours
Historically, when Coinbase becomes a top app in the Apple Store or Google Play, it is often a significant market indicator, so it is worth monitoring.
Currently, Coinbase ranks 81st in the Apple Store.
Bitcoin's Google Search Trend Index is "79"
Source: Google Trends This is a noteworthy indicator because we cannot determine what level "the new 100" will reach—although the current search volume is 79% of the peak in May 2021, this cycle may see significant growth as more users enter the crypto market.
Venture Capital Financing Levels in the Crypto Space
Source: Defi Llama We can at least see that the overall trend of financing is rising, so when these financing levels approach or exceed the 7 billion USD mark from October 2021, it may be close to the market top. Bitcoin peaked in November 2021, which may indicate a few months of lag in the market.
Exchange Fund Flows Remain Neutral
At market tops or bottoms, net flows on exchanges usually experience sharp fluctuations. Currently, fund flows remain neutral, indicating that many investors are satisfied with holding spot or maintaining investments on-chain.
YouTube Views Related to Cryptocurrency
As ordinary traders see Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies becoming mainstream in major news channels, cryptocurrency channels may become a primary source of information for non-crypto users. Counteracting mainstream media information may also be an effective strategy for selling when approaching market tops—Rolling Stone magazine was a good indicator during the NFT bear market bottom.
Other indicators to watch:
- The time gap between Bitcoin halving events and historical peaks—the supply shock has been embedded in the demand dynamics of the market, and Bitcoin miners also hold large inventories.
- Technical analysis indicators such as RSI, Pi, and MACD indicate that certain crypto assets may be oversold or undervalued.
- Market value to realized value ratio: A ratio of 3.7 typically indicates the cycle top of the crypto market. It is necessary to compare market prices with realized value (i.e., the weighted average of the last on-chain transaction price).
Please check the latest modern market program for a broader discussion.
Currently unable to display this content outside of Feishu documents.
I will gradually compile an analysis report to track these indicators and will provide you with weekly updates—please stay tuned.
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