Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina_)
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When the FBI Comes Knocking
The New York Post reported today that sources revealed Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan's home in New York's Soho district was raided by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) — around 6:00 AM local time, Coplan was awakened at home, and FBI agents demanded he hand over his phone and electronic devices, but did not arrest Coplan.
Bloomberg followed up with a report stating that the raid was prompted by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) investigating Polymarket, accusing the platform of violating an agreement made with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022 to "prevent U.S. users from accessing" the platform while still accepting trades from U.S. users.
After the incident, Coplan himself posted two updates on X, the first joking about needing a new phone… the second was a direct response stating: “It’s frustrating that the current government would make a last-ditch effort to pursue companies they believe are associated with political opponents. We are firmly committed to a nonpartisan stance, and today is no exception, but the current government should engage in some self-reflection and realize that taking a more business-friendly and entrepreneurial approach could change the fate of this election for them. Polymarket has provided value to tens of millions of people during this election cycle without harming anyone. We are proud of this. I can say with my head held high that the future of America, especially the future of American entrepreneurship, has never been brighter. In the face of adversity, we will continue to build.”
The U.S. Election and the Rise of Polymarket
Polymarket has become one of the most prominent applications in the cryptocurrency industry during this cycle — it could even be said to be unparalleled.
With a series of prediction markets centered around the U.S. election theme, Polymarket achieved rapid growth in 2024. Around April this year, the platform's monthly trading volume was only about $40 million, but by October, it had skyrocketed to $2.5 billion. During the election period, Polymarket experienced a surge in traffic, with the cumulative trading volume for the 2024 U.S. presidential election alone exceeding $3.6 billion.
In addition, Polymarket has also disrupted the value of information sources compared to traditional media — while mainstream media like CNN reported that Harris was leading in polls, the probability of Trump winning on Polymarket consistently remained in the lead.
After Trump’s eventual victory, Polymarket also declared its achievements on its official X account: “Polymarket has proven that prediction markets are wiser than polls, media, and experts. Polymarket has consistently predicted outcomes accurately, far ahead of the three, showcasing the power of high-capacity, high-liquidity prediction markets like those pioneered by Polymarket…”
The "Charges" Point to Allowing U.S. Users Access, But Is It Really So?
From media reports, the DOJ's accusation against Polymarket is that the platform continues to accept trades from U.S. users, which violates the agreement Polymarket reached with the CFTC in 2021.
In January 2022, the CFTC reached a settlement with Polymarket regarding "offering event-based binary options products," where Polymarket agreed to pay a civil penalty of $1.4 million because the company operated in the U.S. without registration. As part of the settlement agreement, Polymarket promised to gradually cease operations in the U.S. while continuing to operate abroad.
However, although U.S. users have technically not been allowed to bet on Polymarket since then, the platform still has a significant number of users from the U.S. — Forbes reported in August that Similarweb data showed 25% of the traffic to the Polymarket website still came from the U.S.
In fact, the CFTC has consistently opposed platforms like Polymarket offering election-related prediction markets. Besides Polymarket, two other well-known prediction platforms outside the cryptocurrency industry, PredictIt and Kalshi, have also had disputes with the CFTC on this issue.
However, the industry generally does not believe that the DOJ's investigation into Polymarket is genuinely related to this matter — as Coplan emphasized that this may be politically motivated, the New York Post also quoted a source in its original report: “The current government is likely trying to accuse Polymarket of manipulating the market and polling to support Trump.”
Community Response
After the investigation was revealed this morning, various sectors of society have expressed support for Coplan.
Elon Musk directly replied under Coplan's second post: “Indeed”; Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong more directly criticized the investigation, believing the DOJ's actions are entirely politically motivated, but this will only serve to strengthen Polymarket's influence.
Additionally, the meme community quickly reacted to the incident, with a meme token themed “Free Coplan” — the token symbol being an “Eagle” — reaching a market cap of $30 million at one point.
But the problem is, Coplan was not arrested; he just had his phone confiscated, and he is still FREE… _ (perhaps this is part of the meme)_
To all the meme warriors gearing up for battle, please make sure to do your research and manage your risks before taking action.
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