Before the CPI in the evening, the U.S. CPI for October will be released at 21:30 Beijing time. Many friends believe that the recent two days of pullback are due to some investors' risk-averse sentiment regarding the CPI. As for whether this is the case, it will be clearer after the CPI is released.

First, let me share my personal view. I don't think the current CPI has much impact. One reason is that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is unlikely to change based on one month's data. Jerome Powell publicly stated during the September FOMC meeting that the expectation at that time was two rate hikes of 25 basis points, and the dot plot reflected this.

Some may ask, what if the CPI rises? Wouldn't that affect the Federal Reserve's judgment? In reality, the Federal Reserve focuses on core PCE. Although core PCE can be inferred from CPI (core) data, it is not always accurate. Additionally, in both of Powell's speeches, he almost anticipated the possibility of recurring inflation and stated that more data needs to be considered, even dismissing the likelihood of raising rates again under normal circumstances.

Therefore, I believe today's impact on the Federal Reserve is not significant. There may be some influence on user sentiment, as market expectations indicate that aside from the broad CPI possibly rising, other data is expected to be the same as last month. The broad CPI (CPI year-on-year) is what everyone is most concerned about, so when the data aligns with expectations, it is possible that the market may experience a small wave of selling, but it is likely to be short-term unless the CPI data shows a significant increase; otherwise, it should not affect the current trend of #BTC.

Of course, if the data is below expectations, given that it is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, it would definitely be positive for the market. However, the actual benefits would be quite limited. At this stage, the competition is more about the economy rather than inflation.

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