The question of whether Bitcoin will reach $100,000 is not a matter of "if" but "when."

Source: The Block

Translation: BitpushNews Mary Liu

Since Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election on November 5, Bitcoin's price has reached an all-time high over the past week. According to market data, on election night, Bitcoin's price broke the previous historical high of $73,730, and as of the time of writing, BTC is trading between $88,000 and $89,000, having briefly touched a high of $90,036.17 on that day.

With the positive outlook from Trump's election, the expectation that sovereign nations may follow the U.S. in establishing Bitcoin strategic reserves, and the easing of interest rates, how long can this post-election Bitcoin surge last?

"Don't fight the trend," Bernstein analysts told clients in a report, "Welcome to the cryptocurrency bull market—buy everything you can."

Bernstein and Standard Chartered Bank expect Bitcoin's price target to reach $200,000 by the end of next year, but first, how long will it take for BTC to break through $100,000?

Polymarket users have placed bets on whether this target will be achieved by the end of 2024, with total trading volume exceeding $3 million today and a betting probability of 59%.

Douro Labs CEO Michael Cahill told The Block, "The question of whether Bitcoin will reach $100,000 is not a matter of 'if' but 'when.' In my view, this could happen as early as the first quarter of 2025. Given the current macro environment is favorable for digital assets, we are seeing unprecedented momentum."

Fear or No Fear?

According to Cahill, the post-election rebound is not purely driven by FOMO, but he noted that the current price is not just driven by retail speculation like in 2017.

He said, "The market is finally recognizing Bitcoin as a legitimate asset, a tool for hedging against inflation pressures. Today, we see a structural shift in investor sentiment towards Bitcoin, and the six-figure price foundation has already begun to be laid. This rebound has the potential to solidify Bitcoin's position as a cornerstone of the global financial system."

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that since breaking $74,000, BTC has been waiting for the next trigger point before reaching $100,000, and he believes Bitcoin could "easily" reach this level before the end of the year.

Hougan said, "Everyone is watching for new Bitcoin buyers. This is very real, but another reason for this rebound is that people have stopped selling. Long-term holders are no longer willing to sell Bitcoin at current prices, and shorts seem unwilling to stand in front of this speeding train."

Tides.Network CEO Chandra Duggirala mentioned that Bitcoin's price could easily reach $100,000 before Thanksgiving, but there are risks in the short term.

Duggirala stated in an email, "We haven't seen wealth managers exhibit strong FOMO, and retail investors are just beginning to pay attention. Therefore, this trend is still in its infancy. We believe that once it breaks $100,000, true FOMO will arrive."

Split Capital founder and Chief Investment Officer Zaheer Ebtikar expressed a similar viewpoint.

Ebtikar told The Block, "Historically, people have been forced to accept the notion that Bitcoin's movements indeed happen when it breaks historical highs, so I think this is a self-fulfilling prophecy. But I think more importantly… many smarter funds and many cryptocurrency natives are seizing the capital that may enter this space in the future."

He pointed out that if people hand over funds to professional asset allocators, this won't happen immediately. Therefore, most FOMO may not truly materialize until December 1, with January 1, 2025, looking more realistic.

Ebtikar said, "I think we are in a very strange window where many sharp funds that can quickly mobilize capital are entering the market, which is happening before more systematic buying enters the market."

What Do Smart Money Think?

Two Prime CEO Alexander Blume stated that Bitcoin's price "without a doubt" could reach $100,000 by the end of this year.

"The implied volatility of BTC is 55," Blume said, "which is a bit high, but I expect it to reach higher levels before the market peaks. This, along with the recently re-emerging lending market, tells me that there is still some upside potential in the market."

According to data from CF Benchmarks, traders seem to be rushing to buy Bitcoin call options with a $100,000 strike price. The 30-day constant maturity 25 delta skew has now surpassed the 5 vol threshold (note: 5 vol is an empirical number, and when the skew exceeds this threshold, it is generally considered that the market has a very strong expectation of an upward move), the company stated, which is close to this year's high, indicating a significant increase in demand for upside exposure.

Additionally, CF Benchmarks product head Thomas Erdösi stated in a statement that for far-out-of-the-money call options, such as those with a strike price over $100,000, the implied volatility is significantly higher, indicating that traders are preparing for a further breakthrough of the six-figure mark.

Wintermute data shows that open interest for contracts expiring on December 27 indicates increased demand for call options with a strike price of $100,000, with a notional amount reaching $850 billion.

By the end of the first quarter of next year, contracts for March 28 show increased demand for strike prices between $100,000 and $120,000. The ETH/BTC spot exchange rate has risen 11% over the past week, marking the third-largest increase this year.

Wintermute OTC trader Jake Ostrovskis stated, "As pointed out throughout 2024, this spread has been diminished with every opportunity. The prevailing view is 'this time is different,' which is a dangerous position, and the market has softened since Friday's peak."

Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoffrey Kendrick stated that before November 29, the $90,000 level is "easily achievable," while $100,000 is expected to be reached by December 27, and $125,000 by the end of the year. He emphasized that December 10 is an important date to watch, as the Microsoft board will vote on whether to invest in BTC.

Kendrick wrote in an email to clients on November 10, "…Many of Trump's trades peaked around the inauguration on January 20 after the 2016 election, so if BTC cannot reach $125,000 by December 31, I think it will reach it before January 20."

Nascent portfolio strategist Matt Klein told The Block in an interview, "It will reach $100,000 by the latest before the (Trump) inauguration. The only question is whether the Lummis bill is worth serious consideration; if the Lummis bill becomes law, there will be no upper limit to the increase."

Earlier this year, Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo) proposed a bill requiring the U.S. Treasury to purchase 1 million Bitcoins over five years to counter the effects of dollar depreciation. She also proposed a stablecoin bill in April.

With anti-crypto figures like Senator Sherrod Brown losing in the election, the U.S. Congress will see the most pro-crypto lineup in history. Coupled with Trump's economic policies potentially devaluing the dollar, Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin will "fly higher."

Hayes said, "As the free-floating supply of Bitcoin decreases, the most fiat currencies in history will chase a safe haven, and not just Americans, but investors globally, including those from China, Japan, and Western Europe, will put their funds into Bitcoin… This is why Bitcoin is heading towards $1 million, as the price is determined by marginal pricing. Buy and hold."

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