The great roc rises with the wind in a day, soaring straight up to ninety thousand miles

Those who know how to buy are apprentices, those who know how to sell are masters, and those who understand empty positions are the ancestors! In trend swing strategies, the choice of entry points is secondary, while the choice of exit points is key; however, good capital management is the soul of trend swing trading.

Hello everyone, I am trader Gege. Bitcoin has risen more than $20,000 in two weeks, touching the $90,000 mark before pulling back for adjustment. During this $20,000 increase, there wasn't a single significant pullback, so I’m updating this article to casually share my thoughts. Whether right or wrong, let’s discuss and reference together.

First, let’s review Bitcoin's market. From October 29, it surged to around $73,600, but did not break through the previous high of $73,800, leading to a continuous pullback to around $67,000. On November 5, it began to reverse with a series of bullish candles, reaching a historical high and breaking the previous large trading range. After about three days of high-level consolidation, it surged again until it touched the $90,000 mark.

It’s a very strong market. At the weekly level, it formed a technical K-line that lured shorts, then after a dip at the opening, it directly closed with a large bullish candle, washing out the shorts. In such a market, there’s no need to analyze with technical indicators; when faced with such a market, the reference value of indicators is also minimal. Today, I’ll casually discuss from the perspective of market makers. Whenever there’s a market that easily stirs emotions, I always remind about the risks and pour some cold water.

First of all, I am optimistic about the long-term trend. Since October last year, I have always stood with the bulls, and I still do now. The internal medium to long-term trends have already concluded, and recently I have been participating more in short-term trades. Due to the recent high market sentiment, coupled with Trump’s election, it has become a catalyst for this wave of market movement, so we need to be more cautious in the current market.

I mentioned in my previous articles that contracts are just small cards; if the market makers want to wash out positions, they can arrange it at any time. Is there a probability of washing out spot players next? The answer is definitely yes. I have also mentioned in previous articles that washing out spot players can also happen in a strong upward market. You can refer back to those articles. Whether it’s institutions, large players, or these market makers, their goal is to make money. If the market continues in one direction, and everyone is holding onto their long positions, then whose money are they making? After all, the current shorts have definitely been washed out badly.

There is no market that rises forever, nor one that falls forever, and there is no eternal existence. Currently, many in the market are looking at $100,000, $150,000, or even $200,000. Such voices are always prevalent in a bull market, which is very normal. Just like in the last bull market, many were calling for $80,000, $100,000, and what happened? It abruptly stopped at around $69,000. And Audi, do you remember? At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, many were looking at $100, $200, or even $1,000. What happened? It plunged after briefly touching around $96.

I say this not to imply that Bitcoin won’t reach $100,000, $150,000, or even $200,000, but to highlight that when you blindly follow the crowd to enter the market and get stuck at high positions, when the market enters a downward adjustment, you find yourself in a market where you are easily swayed by others. Can you hold onto your original intentions? Moreover, in the financial market, time is money. If you are holding real money trying to make a profit, and it takes two to three years to see a return, if you can’t hold on and cut losses midway, isn’t that a case of losing more than you gain?

After such a long period of consolidation in Bitcoin’s market, this price increase may not ignite the entire market. When the price reaches $100,000 or even higher, it is essential to treat it with caution. The euphoric phase is often the most dangerous time. When you go to the mall, the vegetable market, or while traveling, and notice many people discussing Bitcoin, that’s when you need to be alert.

A healthy and robust trend will inevitably be accompanied by pullbacks to go further. Currently, if the upward trend continues without pullbacks, it will lead to FOMO. The main market makers use real money to push up prices, which will attract more small retail investors and small institutions to take over, completing their harvest. Bull markets often have sharp declines, so contract players must pay attention to risk control; otherwise, how could anyone say that bull markets can lose more than bear markets? Additionally, when the price reaches a certain height, the daily volatility will be larger, requiring better capital management and reserves.

History is always strikingly similar, but it will not simply repeat. This bull market has many differences from previous ones, and I believe you can feel it too. It is more of a bull market for Bitcoin, as it has many favorable factors, including ETFs and halving. So, if we take a moment to reflect, after Bitcoin rises and enters a sideways consolidation, will there be another spring for altcoins like in previous bull markets? Yes, but I believe we won’t see the previous scene of all coins flying together; instead, more valuable altcoins will experience a wave of growth. The key is still to watch the performance of the king of altcoins, Ethereum. Of course, perhaps this bull market will see another rising star emerge to take on this mission, such as Solana, as Ethereum’s performance so far has not been impressive.

Maybe this article pouring cold water was written a bit early, but a gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall. It’s harmless to pour a little cold water in advance; risks are ahead, and profits come later. That’s it, thank you for reading, and good night!

The suggestions are for reference only. Please manage your risk when entering the market, and assess your profit and stop-loss space accordingly. Specific strategies should be consulted in real-time.

Alright, friends, we’ll see you in the next issue. I wish everyone continued success and smooth sailing in the crypto world! More real-time suggestions will be sent internally. Today’s brief update ends here. For more real-time suggestions, find Gege.

Written by / I am trader Gege, a friend willing to accompany you in your resurgence.

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