Today, there are several macroeconomic data points worth our attention!
- China's M1 growth rate in October rebounded from -7.4% in September to -6.1%, marking the first rebound this year!
In October, M2 grew by 7.5% year-on-year, compared to an estimate of 6.9%. Social financing increased by 1.4 trillion yuan in October, in line with expectations.
Another point is the change in the market's deposit structure: in October, both residents and enterprises shifted their deposits to non-bank institutions, with bank deposits from residents decreasing by 570 billion yuan and corporate deposits decreasing by 730 billion yuan. Home buying? Stock trading? Factory building? Cryptocurrency speculation? But certainly, a portion of this is the ammunition for the recent Web3 rebound!
The M1 economic data's year-on-year rebound to -6.1% shows a clear turning point, which is a significant signal indicating that the stimulus plan is effective. Will this lead to a reduction in the scale of monetary easing? This might explain why only a 6 trillion yuan debt relief plan was introduced on the 8th, without the 4 trillion yuan consumption and real estate stimulus.
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 4.39%, and the U.S. dollar index soared to 106. This is still quite an exaggerated situation.
In the coming days, there are three events:
- On Wednesday, the U.S. October CPI inflation data will be released.
- On Thursday, the U.S. October PPI inflation data will be released.
- On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak.
So, is the market pricing in expectations for CPI inflation in advance? From the current market trends, tomorrow's inflation data is likely to be pessimistic!
Just a reminder!!
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