Zhou Yanling: The Bitcoin Surge on 11.11 is Both an Opportunity and a Trap - Market Forecast Analysis and Trading Suggestions for This Week
The recent surge in Bitcoin is mainly related to Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election. Trump has consistently expressed his support for cryptocurrencies and aims to make the U.S. the "global cryptocurrency capital" upon his return to the White House. Therefore, after his election, the cryptocurrency market has once again shown a strong bullish trend. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates has also been a focal point in the market. This rate cut marks the beginning of a loose monetary policy cycle in the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at a press conference that as interest rates approach neutral levels, it may be necessary to slow down the pace of rate cuts in the future. This statement suggests that market expectations for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may be limited, especially after Trump's election, as expectations for his economic policies could lead to rising inflation, thereby affecting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Although Powell emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve and denied the possibility of being pressured by Trump, the market's interpretation of Trump's economic policies may lead the Federal Reserve to be more cautious in its future interest rate decisions. Trump's policies tend to favor tax cuts and increased tariffs, which could drive inflation up and subsequently influence the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts.
From a technical perspective, the price of Bitcoin is currently breaking through previous highs on the daily chart. Although there has been a slight pullback for correction in the short term, the K-line continues to maintain a strong performance above the moving averages. The small pullback on the daily chart has basically completed the technical shape repair, indicating that there is still room for a continued bullish trend in the medium-term outlook, with support to watch around 77,000. On the 4-hour chart, the price has been gradually moving higher, and the K-line is slowly elevating, showing signs of continued strength in the short-term trend. However, attention should be paid to the potential for a slight breakdown followed by a consolidation downward on the 4-hour chart. Currently, the price range on the hourly chart is quite compressed, so focus on the short-term adjustment and repair situation. In terms of trading strategy, maintain a buy on dips and avoid blindly chasing highs; be mindful of risks.
11.11 Bitcoin Trading Strategy:
Buy at 78,800-79,400, stop loss below 78,300, target 70,800-81,300, continue to look for upward movement towards around 82,100.
Sell at 82,000-81,500, stop loss above 82,500, target 80,900-80,400.
11.11 Ethereum Trading Strategy:
Buy at 3,150-3,190, stop loss below 3,110, target 3,270-3,310, continue to look for upward movement towards around 3,390.
Sell at 3,400-3,360, stop loss above 3,440, target 3,280-3,240.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article's review and publication may have delays, and the strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should follow Yanling's real-time strategies.】
This article is exclusively shared by senior analyst Zhou Yanling (WeChat public account: Zhou Yanling). The author has been engaged in financial market investment research for over ten years and currently mainly analyzes and guides BTC, ETH, DOT, DOGE, LTC, FIL, EOS, XRP, BCH, ETC, BSV, and other cryptocurrency contracts/spot operations. For more real-time community guidance, consultation on position liquidation, and learning trading skills, you can follow the teacher's public account: Zhou Yanling to find the teacher.
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