No matter what, we firmly believe that Bitcoin will eventually reach over $100,000.
With Trump winning the U.S. election the day before yesterday, today (November 8), the Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%-4.75% (the second rate cut this year, in line with market expectations), market sentiment continues to soar, and Bitcoin has consecutively broken historical highs, reaching $76,990.
Although the outcome of the U.S. election will have a long-term impact on the crypto market, we should not overlook the short-term volatility risks. In this week's Bitcoin rally, over the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount in the crypto market exceeded $348 million, with more than 96,000 people being liquidated. Meanwhile, the open interest amount for Bitcoin on exchanges has reached a historical high of $46.6 billion, which usually indicates that there may be greater volatility ahead or that the short-term peak has been reached. Please avoid FOMO and try to stay away from leverage.
In our previous article (November 5), we mentioned that the crypto market has never lacked hot topics, and almost every so often, a new significant event becomes the focus of attention and discussion. Now, with the U.S. election in November and the expectation of the Federal Reserve's second rate cut coming to fruition, people are likely to start looking for or focusing on the next new event soon.
From a short-term perspective: The reason Bitcoin's price can break historical highs is mainly due to the emotional impact of Trump's victory in the U.S. election, which we have elaborated on in our previous article. At this stage, the leverage in the crypto market has significantly increased, so we cannot rule out the possibility of a short-term adjustment.
From a medium to long-term perspective: As we have forecasted in previous articles, with Bitcoin's breakthrough, a new bull market has arrived. Although there may be some adjustments in the short term, this is normal because the market cannot rise straight up; there will always be some adjustments along the way. However, if you are still on the sidelines at this stage, still thinking of waiting for Bitcoin to drop below $40,000 to buy the dip, then you will likely continue to miss out on this bull market.
So, how high can Bitcoin's price go in this bull market?
In fact, we have had some thoughts and speculations on this question since our articles started in 2022. Although personally, I am reluctant to discuss any market predictions or price forecasts too much, as a blogger, I know many people (especially newcomers) enjoy this kind of content, so I occasionally do market analysis or price predictions (guesses).
As for Bitcoin's price, for example, in the article on February 14, 2024, we made some simple considerations about market trends from four different dimensions. At that time, we further made a subjective prediction about BTC's price, leaning towards the range of $100,000–$120,000, and this range will also be where I start considering selling in batches. As shown in the figure below.
Of course, we still hold the old saying that the market is unpredictable, and all so-called predictions are merely guesses made by different people based on historical experience, data, etc. The logical point here should not be to look at what others say, as everyone's risk preferences, position situations, personal experiences, etc., are different. You should make reasonable plans and strategies based on your own situation.
Currently, we maintain our personal expectation (guess) that Bitcoin will reach $100,000–$120,000 in this cycle, but with Trump's victory leading to a rapid breakthrough of Bitcoin's historical high, combined with the possibility of some new positive measures that Trump may take regarding the crypto market (for example, making BTC a strategic reserve asset for the U.S.) and the continued expectation of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, we even believe that Bitcoin may reach as high as $150,000 next year (2025).
So, how high can Ethereum's price go in this bull market?
As mentioned above, if Bitcoin can really rise to over $150,000 next year, then optimistically speaking, ETH has a great chance of reaching $12,000, and SOL may also exceed $450. Some altcoins theoretically could have 5–10 times the potential. If we speculate based on our previous Bitcoin range of $100,000–$120,000, then ETH's possible price would be $8,000–$10,000, and SOL's possible price would be $300–$400. Of course, this is just a personal guess based on Bitcoin's fundamentals and should not be taken as any investment advice.
At the same time, we can also see some positive influencing factors from other aspects, such as:
- The rise of Coinbase stock
With Trump's victory, the pent-up demand seems to have been significantly reflected. Although traditional off-exchange funds may not consider directly participating in the crypto market for some reasons, the recent rise in Coinbase stock can also indicate some issues. As shown in the figure below.
In addition to the performance of Coinbase stock, another point we need to think about is that Coinbase (including the Base chain) and its derivatives (such as staking, DeFi) are fundamentally closely linked to Ethereum. Therefore, from a price expectation perspective, although ETH's price is currently lagging behind Coinbase's performance, it may gradually eliminate this gap in the near future.
Moreover, let's not forget that ETH is still the only tool with ETF products besides BTC. At this stage, Bitcoin continues to create historical highs, and Solana also broke its historical high today (November 8), making ETH worth our continued expectation.
- CEX is experiencing a large inflow of stablecoins
On the day after the U.S. election, the inflow of stablecoins into exchanges like Binance and Coinbase reached a total of $9.3 billion, marking the second-largest inflow of ERC-20 stablecoins since their inception. Generally speaking, this is a very positive signal, as a significant portion of this capital may be used to purchase BTC or altcoins. As shown in the figure below.
Historically, the large inflow of funds from September 2020 to February 2021 and the subsequent upward trend coincided with a bull market rebound. If history can repeat itself, the current large inflow may similarly trigger a similar upward trend, and the crypto market may experience another bullish rebound.
Additionally, we must mention the issue of MemeCoins again. In our previous article, we noted that the trend of MemeCoins seems to be at a phase peak, and perhaps we will soon see some altcoin narratives rapidly rotate again.
As Bitcoin continues to break historical highs this week, I have noticed that some projects under the DeFi category have indeed rebounded well, such as UNI and AAVE. As shown in the figure below.
Previously, due to some regulatory pressure from the SEC, many altcoins, except for BTC, were considered to have securities characteristics, which made it difficult for many altcoins to be actively traded in the U.S. market. However, with Trump's administration, perhaps these issues may see some new changes.
We expect that before the first or second quarter of 2025, some altcoins may be re-focused and speculated upon, and then some liquidity in MemeCoins may flow back into altcoin narratives. However, during this process, due to the uniqueness of the MemeCoin narrative in this cycle, we may continue to see a few stories of people getting rich from Memes (i.e., a few MemeCoins will continue to rise), but the probability of a large-scale MemeCoin cycle surge will significantly decrease.
In summary, from a medium to long-term perspective, we continue to maintain an optimistic attitude towards the overall development of the market. Regardless, we firmly believe that Bitcoin will eventually reach over $100,000. But you should also pay attention to short-term volatility; this week or in the coming weeks, with the election and rate cut expectations coming to fruition, the market may experience sideways consolidation or a short-term decline.
It seems that everyone can make money in a bull market, but many people often lose money in the later stages of the bull market. Be sure to have your own plan and position management. If you are trading short-term, pay attention to taking profits and cutting losses. If you are still on the sidelines and want to seize the last opportunity of this bull market, then you need to seriously think about and adjust your strategy now, because bull markets do not last forever.
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