Meme or DeFi? The Crypto Fork After Trump's Ascendancy.

Written by: CMed

The narrative that can be called the "sexiest story of Web3 in 2024" — "Trump becomes the first Bitcoin president" — concluded on the evening of November 5th, U.S. time. Bitcoin has also broken out of a six-month-long wide trading range, surpassing the previous high of around $73,700, reaching a peak of $76,000.

In the traditional market perception, the Trump meme coin, most closely associated with Trump, surged with the news of his election. However, interestingly, on November 6th, the day after Trump was elected amidst the Web3 celebration, any coin that did not rise appeared on the mainstream exchanges' decline lists. The Trump series of meme coins did not show outstanding performance on the day of his election, instead experiencing a "halving" situation.

For example, the address 0x2f6…1Be78 invested nearly $250,000 to buy 70,000 TRUMP coins at an average price of $3.55 during the FOMO sentiment when the votes for the "understanding king" were significantly in favor. Currently, it has an unrealized loss of $88,000 (about 35.5%).

Why did it drop?

From the performance of the Trump series of meme coins since their issuance, taking Trump as an example, the price was already at a relatively low level on the eve of his campaign. An interesting point is that when we observe the accounts that Trump has publicly disclosed, since May, Trump's crypto address has accumulated over three million dollars, with the main losses coming from the Trump-named meme coin. The quantity has not decreased, but as the price has shrunk, the assets in Trump's address have also significantly diminished.

After Trump's successful campaign, there was certainly an expectation of "good news being fully priced in." However, taking the Trump-named token as an example, it did not show a significant increase before experiencing a "halving," which is clearly illogical.

Do political series memes have no future?

Looking back at some recently emerging political memes, such as Pnut and D.O.G.E, they have not shown the obvious decline seen with Trump and MAGA, but rather have seen an increase.

Pnut and Trump, MAGA memes are not entirely the same. Trump and MAGA are more like "direct" political meme narratives. Delving into their backstories, we can only reflect support for Trump, while Pnut's story can be explored more deeply.

Pnut is named after a pet squirrel that mechanical engineer Mark Longo took home after witnessing its mother die in a car accident over seven years ago. On October 30th, officials from the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation arrested Peanut without a search warrant and euthanized it.

Peanut was considered an "illegally kept wild animal," which the public did not accept. The satirical news site Babylon Bee stated, "Radical squirrels wearing MAGA hats are starting to revolt." Elon Musk has also repeatedly voiced support for Peanut on social media. This incident regarding Peanut has been interpreted as an unusual attack on the Democratic Party, even serving as a political weapon in the public discourse.

From this perspective, we can see that political series memes have not come to an end; rather, the narrative of simply supporting Trump is not "sexy" enough.

Interestingly, the "betting prediction platform" PolyMarket and the Trump series of memes have, to some extent, become premium. Investing in the Trump series of memes is not as good as betting on Trump's victory on PolyMarket, as the underlying logic is the same. PolyMarket has seen a significant increase in trading volume and the number of predicted events in 2024, which may also explain the prolonged low prices of Trump series meme coins.

Related reading: "Uncovering Polymarket: Positioning, Expansion, and Shadows of the Crypto Prediction Market"

Meme or DeFi? The Crypto Fork After Trump's Ascendancy

In the eyes of many degens in the market, the narrative of Trump becoming the first "Bitcoin president" in U.S. history will certainly lead to many "golden dogs" emerging. On that day, degens were keen to find various "angles" on Twitter.

For example, JD Vance's dog Atlas participated in voting, and the newly appointed Sec Chair, referred to as the "crypto mother," Hester, ultimately could not escape the "PVP" logic, quickly falling back to zero after reaching a market cap of several million dollars. Many "diamond-handed degens" faced PVP failures that day.

Shifting focus from DEX to CEX, the market sentiment was completely different. The sentiment in CEX was very enthusiastic, with many "zero-value altcoins" that had been criticized by the market for half a year showing significant gains. On the day Trump took office, "on-chain wild farms" seemed to disappear, with many believing, "With regulations loosening, making money on the table means we really don't need to do on-chain wild farming anymore."

DeFi tokens with protocol income have also largely shed concerns about being classified as "securities." Rune Christensen, founder of Sky (formerly MakerDAO), stated on social media, "Trump's victory will drive a true and sustained revival of DeFi, with the likelihood of a tenfold increase in user numbers greatly increasing, as DeFi benefits the most from reduced regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. compared to other areas of the crypto space."

These DeFi tokens saw good gains upon Trump's election, with Uniswap gaining a maximum of 46%, Ethena a maximum of 72%, Jito a maximum of 63%, and Lido DAO a maximum of 56%, with slight pullbacks as of the time of writing.

Perhaps in the near future, we will see a "bull return," with liquidity in CEX becoming abundant again, while on-chain hot money becomes less active. Memes may no longer be the moment to easily reach a market cap of twenty million dollars with just a slight angle; instead, they will require more sexy and profound narratives to drive the growth of consensus.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。