As Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election and the Republican Party is expected to take control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, speculation has begun about what changes the cryptocurrency industry will face before he officially takes office on January 20. The cryptocurrency community hopes to see Trump fulfill his campaign promises, including appointing a crypto-friendly SEC chairman, commuting Ross Ulbricht's sentence, and establishing a national strategic Bitcoin reserve.

Author: James Hunt

Translation: Blockchain in Plain Language

With the results of the U.S. presidential election settled, what changes will the cryptocurrency industry face following Donald Trump's victory?

During this year's campaign, Trump showcased a new pro-cryptocurrency stance and made cryptocurrency policy a significant topic for the first time, presenting a series of commitments. His promises include firing SEC Chairman Gary Gensler on his "first day in office," commuting the sentence of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, establishing a presidential cryptocurrency advisory committee, repealing SAB 121, ending "Operation Choke Point 2.0," making the U.S. a "superpower" in Bitcoin mining, and creating a national strategic Bitcoin reserve.

With the presidency, Senate, and House of Representatives potentially under full Republican control, optimism within the cryptocurrency community is rising regarding the swift fulfillment of these commitments.

1. New SEC Chairman

During the Biden administration, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) played a key role in cryptocurrency regulation. Current Chairman Gary Gensler has argued that most cryptocurrencies are securities and has urged relevant agencies to register under existing regulations. The agency has also engaged in multiple legal battles with major industry players such as Coinbase, Binance, Kraken, and Robinhood, as well as DeFi, NFT, and stablecoin projects.

Although Gensler may choose to continue serving as an SEC commissioner under the Trump administration, reports suggest he is likely to resign.

There is widespread speculation about who will succeed him as chairman, with many believing Trump may appoint current Republican SEC commissioner Hester Peirce, known as "Crypto Mom" for her supportive stance on cryptocurrency. Peirce has long criticized the SEC's enforcement actions in the space and its failure to approve spot cryptocurrency trading products before being sued. However, Peirce has previously stated that she is not interested in the chairman position, making the other Republican commissioner, Mark Uyeda, a popular candidate, as he also holds a friendly attitude towards cryptocurrency. On the other hand, Trump may also nominate a new commissioner, with analysts pointing out that former CFTC Chairman Chris Giancarlo is a potential candidate.

Jake Chervinsky, Chief Legal Officer at Variant Fund, stated that the chances of Peirce becoming chairman are low, as she seems uninterested in the position. He believes, "The probability of Uyeda taking office is not small, but I expect Trump may prefer to appoint someone new of his choosing." He added: "In reality, being chairman is a very difficult and thankless job. Some commissioners (like Uyeda) may be interested, but others may feel they have done their duty and wish to pursue new opportunities."

However, with two and a half months until Trump officially takes office, there may be changes in cryptocurrency policy before the new leadership takes over federal agencies. Chervinsky warned that during this period, the current administration may be "busy finalizing various rules and initiating enforcement actions."

He stated: "Trump's primary cryptocurrency policy task must be to end Biden's attempts to suppress the industry through enforcement. This means reversing the SEC's unreasonable enforcement actions and the Justice Department's prosecution of Tornado Cash."

2. Pro-Crypto Regulation

Under Trump's leadership, advancing the "Bitcoin Bill" has become one of the most anticipated policies, which aims to establish Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, planning for the U.S. government to hold up to 5% of the total Bitcoin supply (21 million coins). The formal name of this bill is the "2024 National Optimization Investment Promotion Innovation, Technology, and Competitiveness Act," abbreviated as the "2024 Bitcoin Bill," introduced by Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis from Wyoming in July this year.

After the election results were announced, Donald Trump won the presidency, the Republican Party regained control of the Senate, and is expected to continue controlling the House of Representatives. Lummis posted on X platform, stating: "We will establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve."

Analysts Peter Chung and Min Jung from Presto explained: "If the Republican Party achieves full control of the presidency, Senate, and House, the chances of many crypto-related bills, including Lummis's Bitcoin strategic reserve bill, passing in Congress will significantly increase."

At the 2024 Bitcoin Conference held in Nashville this summer, Travis Kling, Chief Investment Officer at Ikigai, stated that he believes this plan is almost unlikely to be realized. "It sounds like an insurmountable gap, almost too optimistic to be credible. But with the Republican Party's strong victory, the likelihood of this plan has significantly increased. If it really happens, we will all win (WAGMI, meaning 'we all succeed')."

James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, wrote on Wednesday that this initiative would elevate Bitcoin's status to that of gold, making it part of the national reserve and marking a historic step towards legalization. He stated: "If the Bitcoin Bill is implemented, it could greatly stimulate institutional and governmental interest in Bitcoin, accelerate its growth, and drive its value to new highs."

According to analysts from research and brokerage firm Bernstein, Trump's victory has shifted the regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies from headwinds to tailwinds, and the Senate Banking Committee is expected to become more pro-cryptocurrency. This means that other crypto legislation will progress more quickly, especially regarding stablecoins and market structure bills, benefiting U.S. trading platforms and stablecoin issuers like Circle and Paxos.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, pointed out that among Trump's other policy commitments, ending "Operation Choke Point 2.0" will ease restrictions on cryptocurrency access to the traditional banking system. Additionally, repealing the controversial SEC announcement SAB 121 may pave the way for traditional banks to accept more crypto companies as clients and allow them to hold and custody Bitcoin themselves.

However, one unchanging factor post-election is the U.S. $36 trillion deficit, which increases by $1 trillion every 100 days. Hougan noted that according to the Congressional Budget Office's forecasts, this trend may continue or even worsen under Trump's policies. As the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates, combined with an uncertain economic environment, Bitcoin will become an "essential" asset for investors.

3. Bitcoin Mining Incentives and Releasing Ross Ulbricht (Founder of the Dark Web Market "Silk Road")

Incentives for U.S. Bitcoin miners may further expand the dominance and consolidation trends of currently listed domestic operators. This situation may affect the industry's diversification into AI data center hosting amid the challenging environment following the halving.

Finally, one of Trump's most popular commitments within the crypto community and even among the broader public may be to release Ross Ulbricht after taking office. Ulbricht was sentenced to life in prison without parole for creating and operating the dark web market "Silk Road," which is closely tied to Bitcoin's early history.

Early Bitcoin player Amir Taaki quickly reminded President-elect Trump on Wednesday to fulfill his promise to commute Ulbricht's sentence and urged for his swift release. Taaki stated: "I owe everything to Ross Ulbricht. Cryptocurrency changed my life. The growth of cryptocurrency is due to his contributions. He made the ultimate sacrifice, and we all benefit from his work."

4. Market Impact

CoinShares' Butterfill pointed out that Trump's proposal to appoint billionaire supporter Elon Musk to lead a new "Department of Government Efficiency," responsible for cutting about $2 trillion in federal spending, suggests that a more accommodative monetary policy may be adopted in the future to balance this plan. He stated that historically, accommodative monetary policy and fiscal conservatism have favored Bitcoin, enhancing its appeal as a hedge against currency devaluation and inflation, attracting investors seeking to avoid traditional economic risks.

BRN analyst Valentin Fournier stated: "Trump's election provides a strong bullish case for the market, with anticipated upcoming interest rate cuts and global stimulus measures further boosting the economy and supporting Bitcoin's performance. Although Trump will not officially take office until January next year, we expect Bitcoin to remain strong by the end of the year." He also mentioned: "Ethereum has risen 20% in the past three days, slightly narrowing the gap with Bitcoin after previously underperforming. However, we believe this surge is temporary, and Bitcoin may continue to lead in the coming weeks."

According to The Block's price page, Bitcoin is currently trading at $74,967, up 1.7% in the past 24 hours and up 77.4% year-to-date. In contrast, Ethereum is currently trading at $2,818, up 7.6% in the past 24 hours. However, Ethereum's year-to-date increase is 23.7%, underperforming other crypto assets.

Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, stated: "With Trump's re-election, the market's initial reaction may be that off-exchange funds enter the market out of fear, pushing Bitcoin prices to new highs. In the coming days, BTC ETFs may see net inflows, indicating that Wall Street institutions are optimistic about the market outlook. The long-to-short ratio in the futures market is below 1, meaning institutional investors in the crypto market are taking long positions through futures. The market is currently in a broadly bullish phase."

Bernstein analysts reiterated their prediction on Wednesday, expecting Bitcoin to approach $90,000 by the end of this year and reach a bull market target of $200,000 by 2025. Bitwise's Hougan also has similar target predictions.

Article link: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/11/5518.html

Source: https://www.theblock.co/post/324966/whats-next-for-the-crypto-industry-following-donald-trump-election-victory?utmsource=twitter&utmmedium=social

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