Musk: All-in is a form of wisdom, I only teach it once.
Written by: Cora Xu
Edited by: Evan Manman Zhou
In Silicon Valley, few dare to gamble their reputation and resources like Elon Musk, wholeheartedly supporting a presidential candidate.
Fortunately, in the race for the 47th President of the United States, this guardian minister successfully propelled Donald Trump to the presidential "throne." On election night, Trump publicly praised and thanked Musk, even allocating a five-minute "exclusive advertising slot" for SpaceX.
Now that the outcome of the U.S. election is settled, why was Musk, as the number one contributor, so eager to push Trump into office? What benefits will he gain from this electoral battle? Will Trump's presidency really grant Musk a "get out of jail free" card?
After the uproar, we may be able to view this Silicon Valley superstar's meticulous planning, full investment, and cautious conclusion in the most insane election investment more calmly. This election has once again showcased Musk's sensitive investment instincts and precise judgment across various fields, including politics, economics, and society.
Musk exchanged a political all-in for a 12-year golden period of development for his business empire.
Musk supports Trump in Pennsylvania. (Source: Associated Press)
01 Musk's Dilemma: The Urgent Need for a New President
In the latest Forbes 2024 Global Billionaires List, Musk secured the second spot globally and the first in the U.S. with a fortune of $195 billion.
The wealth of this American billionaire primarily consists of two parts: company shares + cash and other assets. Among them, the valuation of company shares is the most significant component of Musk's wealth, currently including autonomous driving company Tesla, commercial space company SpaceX, social media platform X, brain-computer interface company Neuralink, and tunnel company The Boring Company.
On the surface, with numerous leading companies in various sectors, Musk should be worry-free. However, a closer look at the latest developments of his companies over the past year reveals that many have encountered bottlenecks, with slow core business growth and stalled or delayed innovative projects. A key part of solving these company issues inevitably revolves around the U.S. government.
1. Autonomous Driving Company Tesla: Safety Regulations May Ease, Robotaxi Commercialization Accelerates
First and foremost is Tesla, the most critical player. Once the leader in autonomous driving, Tesla has faced investigations from the U.S. Department of Justice and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration due to 11 accidents involving 765,000 vehicles.
At the same time, Tesla has been embroiled in union struggles initiated by the National Labor Relations Board and disputes over racial discrimination initiated by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. It is evident that Tesla has been under significant scrutiny from the U.S. government, with multiple regulatory challenges.
Additionally, during the Biden administration, Tesla received little support; it was neither on the list of companies eligible for U.S. renewable energy subsidies nor invited to the U.S. Electric Vehicle Summit held by the White House. This highlights the strained relationship between Musk and the U.S. government.
On the other hand, whether for Tesla's autonomous driving business or its newly launched Robotaxi, further expansion relies heavily on support from the U.S. government.
Source: The New York Times
2. Commercial Space Company SpaceX: Trump Supports Mars Colonization Plan, Starlink Business Expansion Accelerates
SpaceX also faces strict regulatory challenges from the government. The U.S. Department of Justice is suing SpaceX, accusing it of discrimination against refugees during hiring; a regional office of the National Labor Relations Board has complained that it illegally fired eight employees; the Federal Aviation Administration is imposing a civil fine of $633,009 on SpaceX; and the Federal Communications Commission voted against including SpaceX's Starlink in the rural broadband program and providing funding support…
"They took all the contracts they could get," Musk angrily mentioned in an interview.
It is clear that SpaceX's current business growth is dependent on the U.S. government easing regulations, especially for the multi-state pilot of Starlink to expand its service range.
In terms of space exploration, Musk has always had a "Mars dream," which requires enhanced cooperation with the U.S. government. He stated in an interview that his dream of Mars colonization could only be realized under Trump's administration. Trump also responded positively, saying, "I hope he can send rockets to Mars; he promised to land on Mars before my term ends."
3. Social Media Platform X: Content Regulation Authority Handed Over to Enterprises, Reiterating the Importance of Free Speech
During Biden's term, the main points of contention between the U.S. government and Musk's social media platform X revolved around free speech rights and how the government regulates platform content, as well as the influence of its decisions. Biden also sought to push for reforms to Section 230 to curb illegal speech.
However, Trump is clearly more of an advocate for free speech. Whether through his establishment of the social media platform Truth or his statements and policy promotions during the election, it is evident that he is more willing to hand over content regulation authority to enterprises rather than have the government regulate platform content.
4. Brain-Computer Interface Neuralink: FDA Approval Accelerates, New Products Launch Faster
As an innovative invasive brain-computer interface project, the U.S. government has maintained a comprehensive and strict review of Neuralink.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has launched an investigation into Neuralink's animal testing to determine whether its practices meet the minimum standards set by the Animal Welfare Act; the U.S. Department of Transportation has also initiated an investigation into Neuralink at the request of animal welfare advocacy organizations due to "careless and unsafe operations" during the transportation of experimental materials, which may involve risks of dangerous pathogen transmission; and the animal protection organization PCRM has filed a lawsuit against Neuralink, accusing it of "abusing" monkeys…
Additionally, Neuralink sought FDA approval for human trials in early 2022 but was initially denied, only receiving approval more than a year later. Neuralink has finally launched its first product, Telepathy, and completed the first human brain device implantation surgery in January 2024.
5. Tunnel Company The Boring Company: "Hyperloop" Construction Resumes, Building an Underground Road Transportation System
You might find it hard to believe that, as one of Musk's "most boring companies," The Boring Company has only operated 2.4 miles of tunnel in its seven years of existence. This is far from Musk's initial vision of establishing a vast multi-station underground road transportation system that would allow autonomous vehicles to transport people at speeds of 150 miles per hour. It can be said that The Boring Company complements Musk's Robotaxi plan by preparing the necessary infrastructure.
Now, while Robotaxi is nearing readiness, road construction is progressing slowly. The Boring Company's Baltimore-Maryland loop tunnel project has faced numerous complaints and protests; projects in California, Illinois, Texas, Florida, and Maryland have all stalled…
Therefore, compared to Musk's other companies, The Boring Company's business progress is more reliant on support from the U.S. government.
According to an investigation by NBC, in recent years, Musk and his vast business empire have been involved in at least 19 regulatory or legal disputes with the Biden administration, with 10 cases still ongoing. Many projects have progressed more slowly under the Biden administration's stringent oversight since 2022.
Tesla executives have called on Musk to return to work via X, implying that he has been less focused on company operations. In hindsight, it seems Musk has chosen to address the common issue among his companies—the U.S. government.
02 ALL in the Election: Musk's "All-in" Strategy
It is hard to pinpoint the exact day Musk began planning this election investment, but the earliest signs appeared when he acquired Twitter for $44 billion.
After all, Musk's first action upon taking office was to lift the ban on Trump's account. Many netizens analyzed that this marked the first move in Musk's election investment.
It must be said that in today's American society, the social platform X (formerly Twitter) remains the enduring battleground for elections. Musk inviting Trump to live stream on the X platform also carries a sense of welcoming.
However, the moment Musk truly stepped into the political center of the election and decided to go all-in was undoubtedly in July 2024, after the Trump shooting incident, when Musk publicly expressed his support for Trump as the next president.
If this were all he did, it might not fully reveal Musk's determination. After all, there are many in Silicon Valley who openly support a presidential candidate. Musk's boldest move was stepping onto the stage at a Trump rally.
According to incomplete statistics, Musk participated in at least three Trump rallies, repeatedly praising the benefits of a Trump presidency, even chanting, "Trump, Trump, Trump, Vote, Vote, Vote." In the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania, Musk appeared alongside Trump at a rally, emphasizing Trump's importance as the only candidate capable of "upholding American democracy." Musk also held independent events in the suburbs of Philadelphia to support Trump.
Source: Foreign Policy
At this point, Musk has firmly tied his fate to Trump. He even joked, "If Harris comes to power, I'm done. Do you think I can still see my children?"
In fact, beyond the surface of Musk supporting Trump, he has also maximized his personal resources to embark on this most insane investment.
First, spending money to boost the "understanding king." Musk not only established a political action committee, America PAC, specifically to support Trump but also donated at least $132 million to Trump's campaign team. Among this, Musk even provided $56 million to Trump and other Republicans.
Not to mention, Musk invested $15 million to "spread money" to voters in swing states. Voters who supported Trump received bonuses, with $1 million distributed daily for half a month. Although this $15 million may not be much for Musk and is not a significant amount in terms of election spending, his remarkable operation made it widely known in the U.S. that Musk strongly supported Trump.
Source: WDSU
Secondly, resource recommendations. For instance, Musk, along with his close friend and senior investor Nelson Peltz, pledged their "loyalty" to Trump, gathering influential business leaders across the U.S. with political allies to persuade them not to support the incumbent President Biden. The effect was indeed significant, as PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel and venture capitalist David Sacks, both friends of Musk, publicly expressed their support for Trump during the campaign. Ultimately, Biden also withdrew from the presidential race, pushing Harris to run.
In securing support from the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania, Musk frequently held town hall meetings locally, personally promoting his key role in the election, and updated early voting data on the social media platform X, posting about the election.
He also dispatched his think tank to assist Trump’s campaign in Pennsylvania, attempting to encourage voters to support Trump with their rhetoric. This effort helped Trump secure the most critical 19 electoral votes in the presidential election.
If we view this election as Musk's investment project in Trump, Musk might be seen as an ideal investor in the eyes of many: providing substantial funding, offering resource support, leveraging his influence to create momentum, and providing a think tank to solve key issues, all while not interfering with the Republican policy proposals.
However, looking closely at Musk, he is trapped in numerous corporate issues, bravely betting his entire fortune and choosing to advance and retreat with Trump.
Additionally, it is worth noting that while Musk appears to be all-in on this investment, he has not left himself without any escape route.
His biggest escape route is Harris. It can be seen that Harris has consistently adopted a relatively inclusive listening attitude towards innovative technologies and enterprises. In most cases, Harris is willing to balance regulation and innovation, so even if Harris were to rise to power, Musk's government oversight should not be more stringent than during Biden's term.
By making a high-profile entry, accurately grasping social and political trends, weighing public sentiment, and pursuing success, Musk personally demonstrates how to win in Silicon Valley's most insane investment.
03 Withdrawing, Musk Wins the Next 12 Years
Silicon Valley giants, like startups, are also waiting for the shoe to drop.
The returns from this election investment may exceed Musk's expectations.
First, Trump decisively defeated Harris, with a clear advantage in both electoral and popular votes, ultimately winning 277 to 226.
Secondly, the Republican Party won a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, meaning Trump also has significant influence in legislation, achieving a unification of executive and legislative powers.
Finally, the Supreme Court justices serve for life, and most were appointed during Trump's term, effectively making them allies.
Therefore, Trump's second presidential term can be said to hold all three powers, with significant influence and decision-making authority.
Many optimistically predict that as long as Trump moves steadily forward, he could serve two terms and support the next generation of Republican candidates, leading to substantial Republican power over the next 12 years.
And all of this, for Musk, may provide a 12-year golden development period for his business empire. This coincides with the flourishing development of various innovative technologies, creating a positive outlook.
The more he earns, the more cautious he becomes, which is particularly evident in Musk after Trump announced his victory. As of the time of writing, Musk has only briefly congratulated Trump on his victory on his own platform and has not made further statements. Compared to his grandstanding during the election, the current Musk has already concealed his achievements and withdrawn quietly.
But does Musk really have no conflicts with Trump's new policies? Clearly not.
The first issue still lies in regulation. If, as Trump promised, Musk becomes the first minister of the National Efficiency Council, reducing expenditures for other companies, how will Musk regulate himself and other industries? This is clearly not an easy question to answer. Musk does not shy away from potential conflicts of interest; instead, he openly expresses hope that Trump will directly help his businesses by reducing regulations.
On the other hand, Musk's overseas business investments and Trump's tariff policies present conflicts of interest, which are also potential hazards for his business development.
Trump will clearly not allow Musk to act recklessly. Even before the election, he had already stated that Musk would become his "cost-cutting minister," but "would not enter the cabinet." Musk had anticipated this in interviews, mentioning, "The White House will adopt different policies for different individuals."
Now, the political struggle between Harris and Trump has ended, but the game between Musk and Trump has just begun.
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