Théo's willingness to place such a bet is not merely a guess that Trump will win, but because he personally got involved.
Written by: Deep Tide TechFlow
With the U.S. election concluded, the biggest winners besides Trump and Musk include a Frenchman named Théo (pseudonym).
Before the election, Théo placed bets using four anonymous accounts on the cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket, with a total wager amount exceeding $30 million, expecting to earn nearly $50 million.
Théo claims to be a wealthy Frenchman who has worked as a trader at several banks and has been using his mathematical knowledge to analyze U.S. polling data since this summer.
This trader not only predicted that Trump would win the presidential election but also bet that he would win the popular vote and several key swing states, including traditional blue states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Théo's willingness to place such bets is not merely a guess that Trump will win, but because he personally got involved, commissioning polling agencies to use the "neighbor method" to gather real polling data.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Théo's betting strategy is primarily based on questioning the accuracy of U.S. polling data. He believes that:
Mainstream polls significantly underestimate Trump's support;
There is a "shy Trump voter effect," meaning some Trump supporters are reluctant to express their stance in polls;
Traditional polling methods are biased, especially those conducted by mainstream media, which often lean towards the Democratic Party;
To address these issues, Théo proposed using the "neighbor polling method," which involves asking respondents which candidate they think their neighbors would support. He believes this method can more accurately reflect voters' true intentions, as people may indirectly reveal their preferences when guessing their neighbors' voting tendencies.
Théo cited several polls conducted in September 2023 using the "neighbor method." These surveys showed that when asked about their neighbors' possible voting tendencies, support for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris was several percentage points lower than when directly asking respondents about their own leanings. Théo believes this confirms that traditional polls once again underestimated Trump's support.
Théo also revealed that he commissioned a large polling agency to measure the "neighbor effect," and the results were "shocking and favorable to Trump."
Théo claims he bet on Trump purely for profit, with absolutely no political motives.
Additionally, Théo has repeatedly criticized U.S. polling. He particularly criticizes polls conducted by mainstream media, which he believes are biased towards the Democratic Party and often produce anomalous polling results favorable to Harris.
Théo suggests that U.S. polling agencies should also use the neighbor method in future surveys to avoid repeating embarrassing mistakes.
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