During this year's entire election market period, the most prominent application in the crypto space, aside from Pump.Fun, is the prediction market Polymarket. Due to Polymarket's excellent operation during the election period, combined with endorsements from Trump and some KOLs, the positioning of "who can be bet on as the next president on Polymarket" was quickly spread. The trading volume related to the presidency continued to rise as election night approached, and by noon on November 6, the influx of users to the Polymarket website caused its servers to experience a brief crash.

Throughout the election cycle, compared to traditional polling agencies, the odds changes on Polymarket have maintained a high sensitivity to news. Money always leads news; even before the results were decided in swing states, Trump's winning probability on Polymarket was already rising.

The cumulative trading volume of election-related prediction trades on Polymarket has reached $3,612,184,597, with trading related to Republican candidate Trump nearing $1.48 billion, while Democratic candidate Harris's trading volume stands at $1.01 billion.

Leading traditional polls, gaining popularity

On November 6, Polymarket's data showed that Trump's winning probability experienced significant fluctuations. At 1 AM, Trump's winning probability was 59.4%, having previously risen to 63% earlier. By 9:46 AM, Trump's winning probability rose to 71.1%, while Harris's dropped to 29.1%. By 11:17 AM, Trump's winning probability further climbed to 88.6%. Subsequently, Trump maintained a lead in key swing states, and the odds changes on Polymarket were very rapid, with everyone speaking with their money.

According to Protos data, Polymarket and Kalshi were compared with the election odds from The New York Times (NYT) and Nate Silver, and the differences were evident. For example, on October 31, Polymarket had Trump's chances of winning the U.S. election at 66%, while The Hill only had it at 48%.

Looking at a broader sample, the averages from traditional polling agencies like Nate Silver, NYT, or FiveThirtyEight show that the odds between Trump and Harris have only fluctuated within a few basis points over time. Clearly, based on the results, Polymarket's outcomes, which are based on trading activity, are more convincing compared to traditional polling agencies.

On November 6, according to application analysis platform SensorTower, the regulated prediction market platform Kalshi is currently ranked first in the Apple finance app category and also ranks first among free apps. Meanwhile, Polymarket has risen to second place in the free app rankings, marking the highest ranking for both applications to date.

Who profited, who lost

Crypto prediction markets have always been seen as having strong cyclicality and only specific application scenarios, such as political elections and sports events. As the U.S. election cycle nears its end, Polymarket's future development will be a focus for many, but currently, the most attention is on this $3.6 billion election trade. Under heavy betting, French trader Théo placed a $45 million bet on Trump, ultimately becoming the highest-earning user on Polymarket.

In August, Théo sent dozens of emails to Wall Street Journal reporters criticizing what he perceived as biased mainstream media polls favoring Harris. In a Zoom call, he claimed that media supported by the Democrats were paving the way for social unrest by hyping the intense competition of the campaign, while he anticipated Trump's overwhelming victory. Théo expressed surprise at the attention his trades received, as he had quietly started betting in August, using the username Fredi9999 to purchase millions of dollars in Trump victory contracts. At that time, Trump's and Harris's odds on Polymarket were essentially even.

To avoid drastic price fluctuations, Théo spread his bets over several days. Nevertheless, as his betting amount increased, Théo noticed that other traders would avoid quoting when purchasing from Fredi9999, making it difficult for him to place bets at ideal prices. Therefore, he created three additional accounts in September and October to mask his buying behavior.

If Trump wins and achieves the overwhelming victory he expects, Théo could earn over $80 million, doubling his return. His main bet was on Trump winning the electoral votes, and he additionally placed millions on Trump winning the popular vote—a scenario many observers consider unlikely. Furthermore, he also bet on Trump winning in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Related: "30 million bet on Trump's victory, this mysterious whale claims: just to make money"

Today, the election results are finally revealed, and Théo's account Fredi9999 has achieved a total profit of $16.47 million.

Taking the four betting options under the "Who will win the presidential election" trade, which has the largest trading volume on Polymarket, BlockBeats has listed the users with the largest profits and losses below.

Trump

The following chart shows the distribution of user shares betting on whether Trump will be elected president on Polymarket. The left side, labeled "Supporters," represents users who believe Trump will be elected, with the largest holder "zxgngl" holding 29,473,073 shares, currently with a total profit of $11.315 million. Other major supporters include the previously mentioned "Fredi9999" and "walletmobile."

On the right side, labeled "Opponents," are users who believe Trump will not be elected, with the largest holder "I95153360" holding 7,107,980 shares, currently facing a loss of $1.192 million.

Harris

The following chart shows the distribution of user shares betting on whether Harris will be elected president on Polymarket. The left side, labeled "Supporters," represents those who believe Harris will be elected, with the largest holder "leier" holding 10,871,056 shares, currently facing a total loss of $4.99 million. Other major supporters include "StarVoting" and "Ly67890."

On the right side, labeled "Opponents," are users who believe Harris will not be elected, with the largest holder being "COMMA-luh," holding 4,878,533 shares. Additionally, this user has also placed bets in the "Trump will be elected president" trade, with total profits exceeding $210,000.

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