Today's second biggest winner: Musk

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4 hours ago

Tesla, X platform, and SpaceX under Musk will benefit from Trump's victory, analyst Dan Ives believes Tesla's stock has another 20% upside. As the "number one contributor" to Trump's victory, Musk's political resources will also rise rapidly.

Written by: Bu Shuqing

Source: Wall Street Watch

The dust has settled on the U.S. election, with former President Trump securing an early victory. However, the biggest winner in this White House battle may not be Trump, but rather his major backer and "trailblazer," Musk.

On November 6, local time, Musk's "die-hard fan," Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, tweeted candidly about his optimism for Musk and Tesla:

The biggest beneficiary of Trump's victory will be Tesla/Musk.

We believe that Trump's victory is negative for the electric vehicle industry because EV discounts/tax incentives will be eliminated, but the impact on Tesla is positive, as Tesla has a huge advantage in scale/price.

Trump's victory could drive Tesla's stock price up by $40-50.

Tesla's market value has increased by $300 billion since its low in April. Additionally, since Musk publicly expressed his support for Trump on his social platform X, Google users' search interest in him has doubled. Analysts predict that this election will bring more car sales for Tesla, more advertising orders for X, and more support for Musk's Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX).

The benefits do not stop there; after Trump's victory, Musk's political resources will be on a different level. In contrast, if Harris wins, as Musk previously joked, he might end up in jail.

Since July of this year, Musk has officially joined Trump's camp, betting almost his entire fortune on Trump's win, and three months later, this gamble has finally paid off.

If you want to know how Musk feels about it, just look at the tweet he posted today:

The future will be very bright! (Musk also kindly gave Trump a "big rocket" emoji)

Tesla Continues to Open Up Imagination Space

Trump may accelerate the introduction of measures supporting autonomous driving technology after taking office, which would be a significant boon for Tesla, which focuses on Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology.

Additionally, Trump's advocacy for significantly increasing tariffs may further limit the influx of affordable foreign electric vehicles into the U.S., helping Tesla maintain its leading position in the U.S. market (with a market share of over 50%).

It is worth mentioning that even if Harris wins the election, Tesla could still benefit, as the Democratic Party advocates for clean transportation.

Therefore, regardless of who wins, Tesla is a winner.

Before election day, Ives rated Tesla as "outperforming the market," with a target price of $300, about 20% higher than Tesla's closing price on Tuesday.

According to the rating site Tipranks, Ives' view is supported by 10 other analysts, while another 16 analysts believe it should be held, and 8 analysts believe it should be sold, resulting in a general "hold" rating for Tesla.

One Step Closer to the "Mars Dream"

From the space market perspective, Trump's victory is also highly beneficial for Musk.

Musk has stated that under Democratic rule, the likelihood of SpaceX achieving the "Mars dream" is low, while under Republican rule, SpaceX may receive more support from government departments.

However, regardless of the election outcome, NASA and SpaceX are closely linked.

According to federal records, since 2019, NASA has incurred nearly $10 billion in debt to SpaceX. However, if Harris takes office, she may not agree to take on such a large debt for SpaceX.

Political Capital Expands, Musk Hints at Entering Politics?

If Trump brings Musk into a government position, Musk could transform from a business mogul into a political heavyweight.

Trump previously mentioned that if he returns to the White House, he would ask Musk to lead a Department of Government Efficiency. Musk later responded that if Trump is elected, he could find $2 trillion in cuts in the government budget, fundamentally reshaping government spending.

After today's election, Musk posted a meme of himself "holding a sink in the presidential office" on X, captioning it "Let it sink in," strongly hinting at a political move. In 2022, when Musk took over Twitter, he promised to cut jobs and entered the Twitter building holding a sink.

However, entering government also means that Musk may have to distance himself from Tesla and SpaceX. Without Musk at the helm, Tesla's value would undoubtedly take a hit. Compared to the automotive business, Tesla's stock price increase relies more on Musk's "big vision." Additionally, unlike executives who can act freely, politicians must deal with the intricacies of working with Congress, which even an energetic Musk may find overwhelming.

Historically, Musk's political career has not been smooth. The CEO advisory council during Trump's term lasted only six months. This council was established at the end of 2016, led by Stephen Schwarzman, chairman and CEO of Blackstone Group, with Musk as a member.

Even if Musk gives up a government position, as the "number one contributor" to Trump's victory, his political resources will rise rapidly.

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