The dust of the election has settled, and Trump has been re-elected as President of the United States.
Funds have long been restless, and Bitcoin surged violently when it turned positive in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, with the super asset worth trillions quickly rising by 3 points, continuously breaking through key integer levels. The market has finally awaited Bitcoin's historical new high.
$75,000, a brand new future.
A new high means everything will be re-planned. So how do top traders view Bitcoin after Trump's election? Rhythm BlockBeats has compiled some insights to provide reference.
Impact of Trump's Presidency on Bitcoin
PlanB: BTC Expected to Reach $1 Million by the End of 2025
PlanB is the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, enjoying a high reputation in the crypto industry for his unique model of asset scarcity and price relationship. His analysis focuses on the long-term growth potential of Bitcoin's value, especially the price fluctuations following halving events. His latest prediction indicates that if Trump wins the upcoming presidential election, the Bitcoin market may experience an unprecedented price surge. PlanB has constructed a series of monthly timelines to illustrate the price development direction of Bitcoin under different market scenarios.
In predictions made a few months ago, PlanB provided specific figures based on his S2F model:
October: Classic Surge Month, BTC Reaches $70,000
PlanB predicts that Bitcoin's price will experience a strong rise in October. He believes that the surge in Bitcoin may be driven by increased global market volatility and a recovery in investor confidence, which are points in history where Bitcoin has often shown price surges.
November: Trump Wins Election, Bitcoin Price Reaches $100,000
If Trump wins the election, PlanB believes Bitcoin will reach a significant turning point. He points out that Trump's presidency may bring friendly policies towards cryptocurrencies, ending the current "war" on cryptocurrencies by the Biden/Harris administration, especially the policy checks against regulatory officials like Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren, which will directly push Bitcoin's price to $100,000.
December: Massive Inflows into ETFs, Bitcoin Soars to $150,000
PlanB believes that Trump's victory will clear obstacles for the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, expecting a large influx of funds into the market. The inflow of ETFs represents acceptance and recognition by mainstream financial markets and investor trust, further driving Bitcoin's price to $150,000.
January 2025: Crypto Industry Returns to the U.S., Bitcoin Climbs to $200,000
With the Trump administration's open policies towards cryptocurrencies, many crypto industry companies and investors may bring their businesses back to the U.S. PlanB expects this to create significant market demand, pushing Bitcoin's price to $200,000.
February 2025: "Power Law" Team Takes Profits, Price Drops to $150,000
The correction in February is a prediction of adjustments in the Bitcoin market. PlanB believes that profit-taking by investors will lead to a brief drop in Bitcoin to $150,000 after reaching a high. However, this adjustment will be short-lived and necessary, laying a more stable foundation for the next phase of growth.
March to May 2025: Globalization Trend of Bitcoin, Price Breaks $500,000
Starting in March, PlanB anticipates that countries like Bhutan, Argentina, and Dubai will successively adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, and in April, under Trump's push, the U.S. will also initiate a Bitcoin strategic reserve. Following this, in May, he believes other countries, especially non-EU countries, will join this trend, further pushing Bitcoin to $500,000.
June 2025: AI Boosts Price to $600,000
In June, PlanB proposed the hypothesis that artificial intelligence will begin to autonomously participate in Bitcoin market arbitrage. He expects that with AI's involvement in the Bitcoin market, this high-frequency trading will further drive prices up, allowing Bitcoin to break through $600,000.
July to December 2025: FOMO Fades, Price Reaches $1 Million
In the following months, PlanB believes that the market's FOMO sentiment will begin to fade, and Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high of $1 million by the end of the year. At this point, Bitcoin will not only become a mainstream asset reserve but also an essential allocation for global investors.
2026-2027 — Market Adjustment and Bear Market
In 2026, PlanB predicts that Bitcoin's price will correct from $1 million to $500,000, entering a distribution phase, and by 2027, the market will enter a bear market, with Bitcoin's price expected to drop to $200,000.
PlanB concluded that the key to this prediction lies in Bitcoin's scarcity value. He pointed out that scarcity will become the core factor driving asset prices, just like real estate and gold. PlanB believes that in the next 18 months, Bitcoin's price is expected to experience leapfrog growth driven by the halving effect and market demand, thereby continuing to solidify its status as "digital gold" among global investors.
The key to PlanB's prediction lies in Bitcoin's scarcity value. He pointed out that investors favor scarcity, and there are currently basically three options for scarcity: real estate (S2F 100, market value $10 trillion), gold (S2F 60, market value $20 trillion), or Bitcoin (S2F 120, market value $1 trillion). Therefore, Bitcoin's scarcity will become the core factor driving asset prices, just like real estate and gold.
Alex Krüger: Spot BTC Dominates on Election Night
Argentinian economist, trader, and consultant Alex Krüger believes that the election results will directly affect the direction of Bitcoin's price:
Trump Wins: Year-End Target Price for Bitcoin is $90,000. Krüger estimates that if Trump wins, Bitcoin's price will quickly surge to $90,000 before the end of the year, giving a 55% probability of realization. In this scenario, he predicts that Bitcoin's price will "soar rapidly," as the market has partially anticipated the favorable impact of Trump's victory on cryptocurrencies. However, there remains a certain degree of price undervaluation, and the market's rapid response will be reflected shortly after the news is confirmed.
Krüger emphasized the importance of timing, especially for investors using leverage. He pointed out that if the market confirms Trump's victory, Bitcoin's price will rise rapidly. Krüger's personal strategy is to hold unleveraged positions (mainly in Bitcoin and some tech stocks like Nvidia), and he believes that a spot position should be prioritized to avoid the volatility risks associated with high leverage.
At the same time, Krüger stated that regardless of the election results, he remains optimistic about the U.S. stock market. He noted that the ups and downs of the stock market will directly affect Bitcoin, as Bitcoin's price is highly correlated with U.S. stock indices. Especially in the scenario of Trump's victory, he expects more favorable cryptocurrency policies and growth-oriented economic measures to drive the stock market higher, which in turn benefits Bitcoin.
Currently, Krüger pointed out that the market has partially priced in Trump's victory. Regarding strategies for election night, Krüger stated that he will mainly hold Bitcoin spot positions and take long-term actions, such as increasing holdings in Solana (SOL) if Trump wins.
The Giver: Mid-Post-Election Decline
The Giver is an anonymous seasoned investor with extensive experience in buy-side and sell-side financial institutions. He is currently engaged in private equity investment in special situations and provides a different perspective. The Giver's strategy is more conservative and focuses on the short term compared to Krüger and PlanB. He believes that the Bitcoin surge driven by the election is more of a temporary phenomenon rather than a long-term trend. This view particularly emphasizes the effects of market liquidity and short-term events, pointing out that Bitcoin may face a decline adjustment post-election. His specific analysis is as follows:
The driving force behind this Bitcoin surge comes from event-driven "non-sticky" buyers, namely some short-term speculators seeking to hedge election risks, rather than an overall trend. These buyers are unlikely to hold Bitcoin long-term, and once the election dust settles, they may quickly exit the market. Therefore, this capital lacks "stickiness," and Bitcoin's price may face selling pressure post-election.
The underperformance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin's concentration. In his view, the inflow of funds is mainly concentrated in Bitcoin and has not widely flowed into altcoins, leading to the underperformance of altcoins. This indicates that the current capital flow is more based on Bitcoin as a hedging tool rather than a positive for the entire crypto market.
The Giver expects that this week, Bitcoin's open contracts and positions will remain crowded, even reaching new highs. He pointed out that this "right-side effect" may bring a short-term surge in Bitcoin's price, but limited by the limited market capacity in Q4 2024, it is unlikely to sustain into the next year. This short-term effect increases the likelihood of Bitcoin's price peaking before the election, but the speculative liquidity behind it is insufficient to support a long-term upward trend.
Markus: Long BTC and Short SOL Hedging Strategy
Markus Thielen is a well-known analyst at Matrixport and 10X Research, who gained rapid recognition in the investment community for his highly accurate prediction of Bitcoin's $1 trillion market value a few months ago.
Markus's latest analysis is based on the latest signal model from 10X Research, which has an accuracy rate of 73% to 87%, typically realized within 2 weeks to 9 months. He predicts that if Bitcoin's price continues to follow historical trends, it may rise by 8% in the next two weeks, 13% in a month, 26% in two months, and 40% in three months. Based on this calculation, Bitcoin's price could break $100,000 by January 27, 2025, and reach a target of about $140,000 by April 29, 2025.
Regarding the election results, Markus analyzed the impact of different election outcomes on Bitcoin and other crypto assets. If Trump wins, Markus predicts that Bitcoin may rise by 5%, with Solana and Ethereum also likely to see similar gains. He believes that Trump's victory will bring a more favorable policy environment for cryptocurrencies, likely driving the market upward.
Of course, he has also prepared hedges for unexpected situations, so Markus's recommended strategy is to "go long on Bitcoin and short on Solana" to hedge against the uncertainties brought by the election. However, Markus also pointed out that if the election results are delayed or disputed, this will increase market uncertainty and may lead to increased volatility in Bitcoin.
Standard Chartered Analyst: If Trump Wins, BTC Will Rise to $125,000 by Year-End
Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick predicts that if Trump wins the election in November, the price of Bitcoin could climb to $125,000 by the end of the year.
Kendrick's model shows that on election day (November 5), Bitcoin may stabilize around $73,000. In the event of a Trump victory, Kendrick expects Bitcoin to immediately rise by about 4%, with a further potential increase of 10% in the following days, driven primarily by rising market confidence and a more relaxed regulatory environment.
Who is President and How Does It Affect Other Assets?
The market generally believes that trading after Trump's victory will be complex. Bullish asset classes include gold and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, while U.S. stocks and the dollar may show a trend of short-term increases followed by mid-term corrections. In contrast, assets like crude oil, U.S. Treasuries, and copper may face some bearish impacts.
U.S. Stocks
With Trump's victory, small-cap stocks and specific industries are expected to benefit, particularly traditional energy, firearms manufacturing, private prison operators, and small retailers. Trump's inclination towards low taxes and reduced regulation, especially positively impacting domestic manufacturing, may drive small-cap stocks higher. The Russell 2000 index (small-cap benchmark) has already begun to reflect this expectation, rising about 4% since early October.
Dollar and Foreign Exchange Market
The expectation of Trump's victory has already manifested in the exchange rate of the dollar against the Mexican peso, which is seen as one of the currencies most affected by Trump's immigration policies. Market volatility has also significantly increased as Trump's election prospects have risen, with the MSCI Latin America Currency Index dropping over 3%, while the dollar strengthened significantly after Trump's statements on tariffs for Mexican imports.
Oil and Copper
With Trump's victory, the traditional energy sector (such as oil and fossil fuels) may rise due to supportive policies from Trump. His energy policy tends to reduce regulation and support domestic extraction and fossil fuel use, which will positively impact related markets.
U.S. Treasuries
Trump's victory is a short-term positive for U.S. Treasuries. In the interest rate and bond markets, analysts indicate that smart money has already begun to focus on the bond market. U.S. Treasury yields may rise due to expectations of Trump's victory, and in the long term, under the influence of fiscal expansion and inflation risks, U.S. Treasuries may face greater selling pressure.
Gold
As the most traditional inflation hedge, gold seems likely to continue rising regardless of who wins. Analysts generally believe that the U.S. government debt issue will continue to expand and will dilute debt through inflation, making gold and Bitcoin the primary choices for investors to hedge against inflation. Gold, due to its safe-haven properties, will attract investors to counter potential depreciation pressures on the dollar and economic uncertainty.
However, Standard Chartered analysts point out that gold is more likely to rise after Trump's victory, as the market generally expects more fiscal spending following his win, which will drive inflation in the short term and further increase demand for gold.
How Much Does Trump Like Bitcoin as a New Crypto Loyalist?
Once upon a time, Trump was a staunch opponent of cryptocurrencies. In early 2019, during his presidency, he publicly criticized Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, calling them "worthless" and suggesting that crypto assets could be used for illegal activities. He stated that Bitcoin "is not money" and is highly volatile.
After leaving the White House, Trump continued to hold a reserved attitude in interviews, calling Bitcoin a "scam" and insisting that the dollar should be the world's only reserve currency. During this period, Trump's attitude towards cryptocurrencies was largely negative. However, the NFT craze in 2021 quickly began to influence his perspective.
The story begins in 2022. At that time, the cryptocurrency market was in a "winter," with many crypto projects on the brink of bankruptcy and market confidence low. It was at this time that Trump's long-time advisor, Bill Zanker, appeared in his life with a suggestion to change Trump's mind: to issue Trump-themed NFTs.
Trump expressed unexpected interest in this—though he did not like the term "NFT," preferring to call them "digital trading cards." Despite seeming odd, these cards became very popular, selling for $99 each and almost selling out immediately after release. Trump's NFTs surprisingly brought him face-to-face with the crypto community for the first time, generating tens of millions of dollars in revenue and introducing him to a new, powerful support group.
As a result, Trump's attitude towards crypto has undergone a complete reversal over the years.
On November 1, 2024, the 16th anniversary of the Bitcoin white paper's release, Trump tweeted his blessings for Bitcoin and stated that if elected, he would end the Harris administration's crackdown on cryptocurrencies, even calling on supporters to help him realize the vision of "Bitcoin made in America." At this point, he was no longer an opponent, nor merely an observer, but a "presidential candidate" who supported crypto.
One of the most iconic events was his attendance at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, where Trump announced that he would become a staunch supporter of cryptocurrencies, even clearly understanding the biggest pain points in the crypto space, promising to fire the current SEC chairman Gary Gensler and replace him with a "regulator who understands crypto."
He bluntly stated that "opposing crypto is the wrong policy" and that he would make America a "Bitcoin superpower," hoping to lead the global crypto industry through a more friendly regulatory environment. He even praised Bitcoin as the core of the modern economy, stating that if Bitcoin were to "moon," he hoped America would be the leader in that endeavor.
Trump at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference, Image Source: WSJ
In his speech, Trump vigorously positioned himself against the Democratic Party's harsh stance on crypto, especially contrasting himself with Elizabeth Warren, known for her crypto regulation. He also pointed out that if elected, he would create a "Presidential Crypto Advisory Committee," which immediately elicited enthusiastic applause and cheers from the audience. More shockingly, he suggested that Bitcoin's market value could one day surpass gold and publicly criticized the Biden and Harris administration's anti-crypto policies.
During the conference, Trump seemed to experience a "public awakening," no longer the former president who was skeptical of cryptocurrencies, but rather an enthusiastic defender of Bitcoin and free markets. The audience was inspired by his change in attitude, viewing him as a "hero" in the crypto community.
Trump at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference, Image Source: The New York Times
Another detail behind this transformation reveals the subtle connection between Trump and cryptocurrencies. At the conference, he looked at the crypto supporters in the crowd and mentioned that Bitcoin had risen 3900% during his previous presidential term, skyrocketing from under $1,000 to over $30,000. His remarks not only ignited the audience but also garnered support from crypto industry giants, such as Elon Musk, the Winklevoss twins, and Marc Andreessen, founder of venture capital giant A16Z, who all expressed support for his crypto policies.
Beyond Bitcoin itself, Trump has also gradually recognized the importance of Bitcoin mining in U.S. energy security and economic sovereignty. In June 2024, he met with executives from several large Bitcoin mining companies in the U.S. and promised to strongly support crypto mining activities through policy. He even posted on Truth Social that Bitcoin mining is the "last line of defense" against central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and hopes that "all remaining Bitcoins are made in America." In Trump's view, Bitcoin mining is not just an economic activity; it symbolizes America's will to resist central banks.
In September, Trump purchased a cheeseburger with Bitcoin at a Bitcoin-themed bar, PubKey, in New York. This action also pushed the possibility of Bitcoin being pulled back from a financial investment to a daily transactional currency, becoming a symbol of his crypto stance.
Trump has also made bigger promises to the crypto community, publicly stating that he would retain Bitcoin as a strategic reserve and plans to pardon Ross Ulbricht, who was sentenced to life in prison for operating a dark web platform. Through these radical moves, Trump has successfully crafted himself as the "savior" of the crypto community, promising to protect Bitcoin from excessive government regulation and pledging to make America the center of global cryptocurrencies.
As the suspense of whether Trump will return to the White House looms, the future of Bitcoin and the entire crypto market seems to be at a crossroads. Over the past few years, political turmoil, policy changes, and global economic uncertainty have all pushed Bitcoin step by step towards new heights. If Trump regains power, his support for cryptocurrencies could undoubtedly trigger a new wave in the market, taking Bitcoin to new heights and even reshaping America's financial landscape.
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