Author: Alex Liu, Foresight News

Legendary trader GCR was last active on social media on April 14 of this year, when the market experienced a significant drop. He posted a bullish outlook for the future, and the market nearly hit the bottom simultaneously. This may just be a coincidence, but it highlights his strong personal influence.

Fast forward to the eve of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, GCR finally posted again, but this time it was unrelated to crypto: "The outcome of the 2000 election was ultimately decided by a margin of 537 votes (48.847% to 48.838%). While it is unlikely that 2024 will be this close, I still encourage everyone to vote tomorrow (whether you vote for the Republican or Democratic party)."

In the comments section, someone remarked: "No joke, my entire fortune is based on GCR's prediction of a Trump victory. If I get liquidated, I will privately message to request a refund."

The election results have long become a tradable asset. Which side is GCR betting on? What is the prediction that GCR has made, according to the aforementioned commenter?

It turns out that as early as 2021, GCR @GiganticRebirth posted:

"One of my most confident trades, TRUMP2024

FTX's liquidity is severely lacking, so we have been accumulating positions through Alameda OTC and other sources since around 0.10 / 10c (10 cents per share, if he wins, 1 share will be worth 1 dollar).

The biggest risk of this trade is (Trump) having a heart attack; otherwise, it is destined to rise to 0.65 dollars."

On July 4, 2022, he posted again bluntly:

Looking back now, this series of operations seems almost like a cheat, predicting the future three years in advance. (He probably also reads Foresight News.)

Trump successfully secured the Republican nomination, while DeSantis went to zero. In the presidential election market, Trump's victory odds peaked at 0.7, just above his predicted 0.65, achieving a 7-fold return. How did he do it?

On Polymarket, the highest probability of Trump winning is 71.5%.

GCR responded yesterday to the comment mentioned above, reviewing this trade and stating that he "has taken profits."

The full response is as follows:

"I've seen this sentiment many times; as always, I advise against using leverage and making reckless bets.

As traders, our job is to think about possibilities and find the maximum discrepancy between expectations and accurate pricing.

In 2021, I was absolutely confident in two predictions:

(1) DeSantis (would not secure the Republican nomination) because the front runner is a paper tiger, and the probability of Trump becoming the actual Republican candidate is over 95%.

(2) I predicted that the market would show a right-wing bias (as I observed in Trump's odds in 2020); therefore, the expected pricing of the eventual Republican nominee (whoever gets nominated) would rise to 65 cents (please refer to my pinned tweet, which established 0.65 in 2021).

Thus, buying Trump at a price below 10% maximizes value because I knew that if I was correct about my bearish argument on DeSantis, the odds would rise above 65% (and I would buy other bets related to Trump's undervalued odds).

Both predictions came true (Trump won the Republican nomination, and the price of his winning share reached 65 cents), and I feel satisfied. I have captured the essence of this trend and taken profits from my positions and proxy bets because most of the delta expectation and reality have been realized.

Now we wait to see if there will be a fair election."

And how significant is GCR's influence? Just 20 hours ago, a whale withdrew $500,000 from Binance to continue betting on Trump's victory. After GCR's post stating "has taken profits" and "waiting to see if there will be a fair election," the whale began selling off their position just one minute later and cleared out their entire position of over $3 million betting on Trump's victory within an hour.

Is GCR implying that as long as the election is fair, Trump will win? Will his bets continue to be accurate? We look forward to a positive answer, after all, he also said ETH will eventually rise to $10,000.

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