I've been watching too many tweets about the election, and I've finished all my assignments, but it doesn't really matter. As I mentioned before, the current relationship between BTC's price and data is almost nonexistent; it is more directly related to whether Trump is elected. The high opening today is due to this. On election day, #BTC rebounded directly above $70,000, and Trump's winning probability also increased sharply. Now we just wait for the results to be revealed.
In fact, many friends are overly one-sided in their judgment of how Trump's and Harris's election would affect BTC's price. Indeed, Trump is more closely tied to BTC, but the cryptocurrency market is still too niche compared to the entire risk market, and it is not enough to change the overall trend of the risk market. If the U.S. stock market performs well, at least BTC won't react too poorly.
Therefore, whether it is Trump or Harris taking office, the impact on the U.S. stock market is about the same, so it is not a fundamental change for BTC. Of course, Trump's administration may have looser regulations, while Harris would be stricter, which is true.
Looking back at BTC's data, although Trump is making a comeback, BTC's turnover remains stable and has not increased due to Trump's rising winning probability. After all, those frequently trading BTC now are short-term investors. Especially from today's data, as BTC's price rises, the exit of short-term profit investors has increased, while the exit of short-term loss investors has decreased.
Most of the turnover comes from investors who bought in at the bottom in recent days, while earlier investors have not reacted much, which is expected. Moreover, the support between $64,000 and $69,000 remains very stable, with no unexpected changes. Ultimately, the short term will still be a gamble on the election results.
The data has been updated, address: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit?usp=sharing
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