On November 5th (Tuesday) in the United States, the country will hold its quadrennial election day. The voting situation on this day will determine the political direction of the United States for the next four years.

As the world's largest economy, the election of its future leader will undoubtedly attract global attention. However, the global "onlookers" should prepare themselves mentally in advance, as the results of this election are very likely not to be revealed on election day or the following day, and it may take several days to announce the results.

So, when can we expect the results of this election? A detailed analysis suggests that this could be a very complex issue.

Voting Times Vary by State in the U.S.

Generally speaking, most states in the U.S. will begin counting votes immediately after polls close on election day. However, due to the vastness of the United States, which spans multiple time zones from east to west, the closing times for polls vary by state.

This means that sometimes, when the counting results from the eastern states are already out, some western states may not have finished voting yet.

Here are the closing times for polling stations in each state.

(Bolded entries in the table are key swing states)

Although all states in the U.S. will conduct election voting, based on previous media polls, the election situation in most states can be predicted in advance, while the final election results will be determined by seven swing states.

The Seven Key Swing States in the U.S.

These seven swing states are Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Michigan.

From the table, it can be seen that Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin have later voting end times, which means their counting results may be released later.

Counting Rules Vary by State in the U.S.

Adding to the complexity are the different counting rules in each state.

For example, before election day, millions of people have already voted early by mail or in person, but in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, local laws do not allow for the early counting of millions of mail-in ballots before election day. This means that the counting progress in these two states will be slower.

Additionally, one of the key swing states, Nevada, allows mail-in ballots to arrive as late as 5 PM on November 9th, which means if the election situation in that state is tight, the final counting results may not be clear until several days after election day.

Trey Grayson, former president of the National Association of Secretaries of State, stated that after voting ends on election day, the counting times across the country may vary: "We have 50 states, plus Washington D.C., and our counting practices are almost all different."

Grayson noted that this could mean "in a very close election, it may be nearly impossible to know who will be president, or who will control the House or Senate on election night."

Final Results May Take Days to Announce

If this election sees a one-sided situation, it is indeed possible to determine a winner by the day after election day.

For instance, if Trump or Harris can sweep Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, which have a significant number of electoral votes, we might be able to determine the election results the day after election day.

However, considering that polling in the seven swing states is so tight, and referencing the last election, we need to mentally prepare ourselves: this election may take several days to determine the results.

Polling Situation in Key Swing States (Poll Support Data as of October 28)

In the last election, due to the close polling in swing states, officials took four days to count all the votes: after voting ended on November 3rd, it wasn't until November 7th, when the counting results from Pennsylvania were fully released, that Biden officially announced his victory.

This time, considering that the polling support for Trump and Harris is even closer, the time required for counting votes may be even longer.

Counting Results May Face Challenges

To make matters worse, the Republican Party has already initiated hundreds of pre-election lawsuits and legal challenges across the U.S., questioning the fairness of the election and alleging that non-citizens were allowed to participate in federal elections, which could complicate the counting process.

For example, the Republican Party has initiated a legal challenge in Georgia, demanding that local polling station staff manually count the votes (instead of machine counting) to ensure the fairness of the counting results—this will undoubtedly significantly reduce the efficiency of the counting process. Currently, the Georgia courts are debating this request from the Republican Party, and voting rights organizations warn that if manual counting is implemented, it could lead to greater chaos.

Moreover, although election day has not officially arrived, extreme rhetoric and conspiracy theories about voting fairness have already emerged on American social media platforms, indicating that the final counting results are likely to be questioned, and may even lead to violent incidents—something we have already witnessed four years ago.

Election experts indicate that if people doubt the election results, there may be a wave of denial of election results in countless courts across states and localities, triggering widespread recounts—this could also delay the official announcement of election results.

Additionally, in some states, if the election situation is extremely close, it may automatically trigger a recount. For example, in Pennsylvania, state law stipulates that if the total vote difference between the winner and loser is only 0.5 percentage points, a statewide recount will be automatically triggered.

According to a survey conducted by the independent research organization World Justice Project in June of this year, 46% of Republican respondents indicated that they would not accept the legitimacy of the election results if the Democratic candidate wins. Fourteen percent of Republicans stated that if the Democratic candidate wins, they would take action to overturn the election results.

This means that if Trump loses in this presidential election, whether the Republican Party is willing to accept defeat and whether the U.S. government can achieve a peaceful transfer of power in January may become a significant issue.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。