The more important influencing factor is whether the overall economy of the United States and the global economy can continue to improve.
Written by: Huang Shiliang
The next president of the United States is about to be announced, and recently the reactions in major global capital markets have been intense, including the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrencies, especially the response from the crypto space.
From the sentiment expressed online, it seems that funds in the crypto space are particularly afraid of a Trump loss. I feel that this fear is completely unnecessary.
The biggest feature of the U.S. system is the separation of powers. A president can do a lot, but it is very difficult to bring about earth-shattering changes.
Trump has been bullish on crypto in recent months, making various exaggerated statements, claiming he wants to turn the U.S. into a paradise for cryptocurrencies. But can these claims be taken seriously? It is more rational to be skeptical.
For example, Trump said he wants to treat BTC as a strategic reserve for the U.S. This… even the gold reserves are not solely decided by the president. If you still believe that the U.S. is a market economy, then the gold reserves must be considered based on economic and financial stability; how could it be left to the president to decide?
If the president could decide to include Bitcoin in the strategic reserves, then what is the role of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve, and what is the purpose of Congress's legislation?
If Trump were really that powerful, he could just appoint himself president without needing an election.
It's just that Trump is talking about Bitcoin; if he were talking about a certain stock, the SEC would probably sue him for market manipulation.
Just look at the issue of TikTok being banned in the U.S. During Trump's last term, he wanted to eliminate TikTok, and the Biden administration has similar intentions, but there has still been no clear outcome. This is merely dealing with one company, and it is not something a president can decide alone. Count the games involved: presidential executive orders, national security reviews, congressional discussions, and multiple court interventions, with the final decision power dispersed among various departments. The president's decision-making power is indeed limited.
This is undoubtedly an advantage of the American system; a change in the presidency does not lead to drastic changes in national policies and people's livelihoods.
Looking at Chinese history, one of the biggest problems with over 2,000 years of imperial power is the issue of succession. The current system of succession in the U.S. is very worthy of study.
Are crypto enthusiasts watching too many palace drama series, thinking that changing a president can have a monumental impact on the crypto space?
Sigh, if I keep going, it might turn into a pro-American rant.
Additionally, I think Trump’s behavior in the crypto space is quite unseemly.
On Opensea, there are a total of four NFT projects directly related to Trump, all of which have a legitimate connection to him, offering special benefits for buying NFTs, such as a piece of Trump's debate suit, attending a golf club dinner, etc. These NFTs are, without exception, garbage.
Just last month, the Trump family launched a DeFi project, WLF, and I hope it doesn't end up being a flop.
If anyone else were to issue these projects, they would probably be criticized in the crypto space, but since he is a former president, making some profit in the crypto space is just considered advertising fees paid to him by the industry. However, I think this advertising fee is very worthwhile. Trump is undoubtedly one of the top influencers in the world today, and for him to pull in tens of millions from the crypto space in exchange for a few compliments about it is a great deal for the crypto space.
Looking at how hard he is working to promote the crypto space, if he were president, it should be a positive for the crypto market.
Including Musk, many people have claimed that if Harris is elected, there will be a stock market crash, economic disaster, and even World War 3; conversely, if Trump is in office, everyone will achieve wealth and prosperity within three days.
Oh dear, a man shouldn't make such vows on Valentine's Day; he might get struck by lightning.
From the perspective of actual economic effects, Biden has been quite friendly towards cryptocurrencies. He is not just making empty promises; although he may have some cognitive decline, during his term, BTC and ETH ETFs have indeed launched, and BTC has reached new highs.
The U.S. stock market has also performed very well during Biden's term.
As Harris is Biden's vice president, it is more likely that she will continue Biden's policies.
Why is it that in the eyes of netizens, Harris taking office means a significant drop in cryptocurrency prices? I truly do not believe that.
My point is not to say that who gets elected has no impact on the crypto space; I just think it is impossible to have an extreme impact. A slight increase in normal market fluctuations is to be expected.
Compared to the short-term impact of a president taking office, the more important influencing factor is whether the overall economy of the United States and the global economy can continue to improve.
Regardless of who is elected, the real factors affecting the trends in the crypto market and other capital markets are the economic fundamentals of the United States, including inflation levels, employment data, interest rate policies, and international economic conditions. These economic factors determine market liquidity and investors' risk appetite, rather than a single political leader. Therefore, focusing on macroeconomic trends is key to judging the long-term trends of the market, rather than fixating on the short-term fluctuations brought about by a change in leadership.
Finally, for some entertainment, let's guess the election results.
I guess Trump will win.
My reasoning is: Musk is too strategic.
Two years ago, when Musk bought Twitter, he announced in April 2022 that he would buy it, and the deal was completed in October. At that time, I thought Musk had changed; he was no longer great. He used to do things that no one else would do, and now he is spending almost all his wealth to buy Twitter, a social product that has already been fiercely contested by entrepreneurs. This seemed so mundane.
I thought he was buying Twitter for greater influence.
But this year, during the U.S. presidential election year, X.com has become the center of the campaign game, becoming Musk's biggest political capital (and probably one of Trump's biggest political capitals as well).
He started laying the groundwork for this two years ago, spending almost all his wealth on this strategy, which can be said to be a (half) do-or-die move.
Just thinking about it feels impressive.
Now looking back, spending $40 billion to buy X, which has now become the largest political stage in the world, Musk has won big; this business is far more successful than boasting about going to Mars.
Comparing Musk's actions, I believe the current president Biden and his current presidential candidate Harris, due to the previous job change incident, could never have a similar long-term strategy.
Therefore, I believe Trump will win.
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