GCR returns after six months, reviewing the trading logic behind his bet on Trump, which yielded 7 times the return over three years, and his "take profit" has triggered panic selling among whales.
Written by: Alex Liu, Foresight News
Legendary trader GCR was last active on social media on April 14 of this year, when the market experienced a significant drop. He posted a bullish outlook for the future, and the market almost simultaneously hit the bottom. This may just be a coincidence, but it highlights his strong personal influence.
Fast forward to the eve of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, GCR finally posted again, but this time it was unrelated to crypto: "The outcome of the 2000 election was ultimately decided by a margin of 537 votes (48.847% to 48.838%). While it is unlikely that 2024 will be this close, I still encourage everyone to vote tomorrow (whether you vote for the Republican or Democratic party)."
In the comments section, someone remarked: "No joke, my entire fortune is based on GCR's prediction of a Trump victory. If I get liquidated, I will privately message to request a refund."
The election outcome has long become a tradable asset; which side is GCR betting on? What is the prediction that GCR has made, as mentioned by the commenter?
It turns out that as early as 2021, GCR @GiganticRebirth posted:
"One of my most confident trades, TRUMP2024
FTX's liquidity is severely lacking, so we have been accumulating positions through Alameda OTC and other sources since around 0.10 / 10c (10 cents per share, if he wins, 1 share will be worth 1 dollar).
The biggest risk of this trade is (Trump) having a heart attack; otherwise, it is destined to rise to 0.65 dollars."
On July 4, 2022, he bluntly stated:
Looking back now, this series of operations seems almost like a cheat, predicting the future three years in advance. (He probably also reads Foresight News)
Trump successfully secured the Republican nomination, while DeSantis went to zero. In the presidential election market, Trump's winning odds peaked at 0.7, just above his predicted 0.65, achieving a 7-fold return. How did he do it?
The highest probability of Trump winning on Polymarket is 71.5%.
GCR responded yesterday to the comment mentioned above, reviewing this trade, and stated that he has "taken profit."
The full response is as follows:
"I've seen this sentiment many times; as always, I advise against using leverage and making reckless bets.
As traders, our job is to think about possibilities and find the maximum discrepancy between expectations and accurate pricing.
In 2021, I was confident in two predictions:
(1) DeSantis (would not secure the Republican nomination) because the front runner is a paper tiger, and the likelihood of Trump becoming the actual Republican candidate is over 95%.
(2) I predicted that the market would show a right-wing bias (as I observed in Trump's odds in 2020); therefore, the expected pricing of the eventual Republican nominee (whoever gets the nomination) would rise to 65 cents (please refer to my pinned tweet, which established 0.65 since 2021);
Thus, buying Trump at a price below 10% was maximizing value because I knew that if I was correct about my bearish argument on DeSantis, the odds would rise above 65% (and I would buy other related bets where Trump's odds were undervalued).
Both predictions came true (Trump won the Republican nomination, and the price of his winning share reached 65 cents), and I feel satisfied that I have captured the essence of this trend and taken profit from my positions and proxy bets, as most of the delta between expectation and reality has been realized;
Now we wait to see if there will be a fair election."
And how significant is GCR's influence? Just 20 hours ago, a whale withdrew $500,000 from Binance to continue betting on Trump's victory, and within one minute of GCR's post about "taking profit" and "waiting to see if there will be a fair election," he began selling off his positions, clearing out his entire $3 million bet on Trump's victory within an hour.
Is GCR implying that as long as the election is fair, Trump will win? Will his bets continue to be accurate? We look forward to a positive answer, after all, he also said ETH will eventually rise to $10,000.
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