The U.S. Election and the Cryptocurrency Market: Is the Presidential Transition Really That Important?

CN
4 hours ago

"For global assets, especially in the blockchain industry, no matter who becomes the President of the United States, there will not be extreme impacts."

Written by: Huang Shiliang

The next President of the United States will soon be revealed, and recently the reactions in major global capital markets have been quite intense, including the US stock market and cryptocurrencies, especially the reactions in the crypto space.

From the sentiment expressed online, it seems that crypto investors are particularly afraid of a Trump defeat. I feel that this concern is completely unnecessary.

The biggest characteristic of the American system is the separation of powers. A president can do many things, but it is difficult to bring about earth-shattering changes.

Trump has been bullish on crypto in recent months, making various exaggerated statements claiming he wants to turn the US into a paradise for cryptocurrencies. But can these be taken seriously? It is more rational to be skeptical.

For example, Trump said he wants to treat Bitcoin as a strategic reserve for the US. This… even the gold reserves are not solely decided by the president. If you still believe that the US is a market economy, then the gold reserves must be considered based on economic and financial stability; how could it be left to the president to decide?

If the president could decide to include Bitcoin in the strategic reserves, then what do we need the Treasury and the Federal Reserve for? What is the purpose of Congress's legislation?

If Trump were really that powerful, he could just appoint himself as president without an election, right?

Moreover, if Trump were talking about Bitcoin, if he were discussing a certain stock, the SEC would probably sue him for market manipulation.

Just look at the issue of TikTok being banned in the US. During Trump's last term, he wanted to eliminate TikTok, and the Biden administration has similar intentions, but there has still been no clear outcome. This is merely dealing with one company, and it is not something a president can decide alone. Count the games involved: presidential executive orders, national security reviews, congressional discussions, and multiple court interventions, with the final decision-making power dispersed among various departments. The president's decision-making power is indeed limited.

This must be said to be an advantage of the American system; the change in the presidency does not lead to nationwide policy and livelihood issues undergoing drastic changes.

Looking at Chinese history, one of the biggest problems with over 2000 years of imperial power is the issue of succession. The current system of succession in the US is very worthy of study.

Are crypto enthusiasts watching too many palace intrigue dramas, thinking that changing a president can have earth-shattering effects on the crypto space?

Ah, if I keep going, it will turn into a pro-American rant.

Additionally, I think Trump’s behavior in the crypto space is quite unseemly.

On Opensea, there are a total of four NFT projects directly related to Trump, all of which have a legitimate connection to him, offering special benefits for buying NFTs, such as a piece of Trump's debate suit, attending a golf club dinner, etc. These NFTs are, without exception, garbage.

Just last month, the Trump family launched a DeFi project, WLF, and I hope it doesn't end up being a flop.

If anyone else were to issue these projects, they would probably be scolded in the crypto space, but he is the president, so making some profit in the crypto space is just considered advertising fees paid to him by the industry. However, I think this advertising fee is very worthwhile. Trump is undoubtedly a top influencer in today's world, and for him to pull in tens of millions from the crypto space in exchange for a few compliments about it is a great deal for the crypto space.

Looking at how hard he is working to promote the crypto space, if he were president, it should be a positive for the crypto space.

Including Musk, many people have claimed that if Harris is elected, there will be a stock market crash, economic disaster, and World War 3; conversely, if Trump is in office, everyone will achieve wealth and prosperity within three days.

Oh dear, a man shouldn't make such vows on Valentine's Day; he might get struck by lightning.

From the perspective of actual economic effects, Biden has been quite friendly towards cryptocurrencies. He is not just talking; although he may have some cognitive decline, during his term, the ETFs for BTC and ETH have indeed launched, and BTC has reached new highs.

The US stock market has also performed very well during Biden's term.

As for Harris, as Biden's vice president, it is more likely that she will continue Biden's policies.

Why is it that in the eyes of netizens, Harris taking office means a significant drop in cryptocurrency prices? I truly do not believe that.

My point is not to say that who gets elected has no impact on the crypto space; I just feel that it cannot produce extreme effects, and a slight increase in normal market fluctuations is to be expected.

Compared to the short-term impact of a president taking office, the more important influencing factors are whether the overall US economy and the global economy can continue to improve.

No matter who is elected, what truly affects the trends in the crypto market and other capital markets are the economic fundamentals of the US, including inflation levels, employment data, interest rate policies, and international economic conditions. These economic factors determine market liquidity and investors' risk appetite, rather than a single political leader. Therefore, focusing on macroeconomic trends is key to judging the long-term trends of the market, rather than fixating on the short-term fluctuations brought about by a change in leadership.

Finally, for some entertainment, let's guess the election results.

I guess Trump will win.

My reasoning is: Musk is too strategic.

Two years ago, when Musk bought Twitter, he announced in April 2022 that he would buy it, and the deal was completed in October. At that time, I thought Musk had changed; he was no longer great. He used to do things that no one else would do, and he should be boasting about going to Mars instead of spending almost all his wealth to buy Twitter, a social product that had already been fiercely contested by entrepreneurs. This seemed so mundane.

I thought he was buying Twitter for greater influence.

But this year, during the US presidential election year, X.com has become the center of the campaign game, becoming Musk's biggest political capital (and probably one of Trump's biggest political capitals as well).

He started laying the groundwork for this two years ago, spending almost all his wealth on this layout, which can be said to be a (half) do-or-die move.

Just thinking about it feels impressive.

Now looking at it, spending $40 billion to buy X, which has now become the largest political topic stage in the world, Musk has won big; this business is far more successful than boasting about going to Mars.

In comparison to Musk's operations, I feel that the current president Biden and his current presidential candidate Harris, due to the previous job change incident, are completely incapable of having a similar long-term layout.

Therefore, I believe Trump will win.

[1] Ozone Networks, Inc. “Trump Digital Trading Card #1518.” OpenSea. Accessed November 4, 2024. https://opensea.io/assets/matic/0x24a11e702cd90f034ea44faf1e180c0c654ac5d9/1518.

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