Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)

The U.S. elections will officially begin later today, but aside from the highly anticipated presidential election, a certain important seat's election is also drawing significant attention from the cryptocurrency industry. Overseas lobbying organizations have even invested tens of millions of dollars in hopes that a certain "challenger" can unseat the "crypto enemy" currently in power.

This important election is for the Ohio Senate seat, with the candidates being the incumbent senator, Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown, and Republican candidate Bernie Moreno.

The reason this seat's election is of great interest to the industry is that Brown currently holds the position of Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, which is one of the most influential committees in the Senate and has jurisdiction over the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)… It goes without saying that those familiar with the industry know how these two agencies impact cryptocurrency regulation.

As the Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Brown has significant influence over which bills are submitted for committee review or brought to a vote in Congress, but Brown himself is an extreme opponent of cryptocurrency, causing many cryptocurrency-related bills to be shelved in the committee, which the industry generally believes severely hinders the positive development of the sector.

Sherrod Brown

In contrast, the "challenger" Moreno has already made cryptocurrency a core part of his campaign, even vowing to fight against those who seek to "destroy cryptocurrency."

Bernie Moreno

CoinDesk reported in September that political action committees (PACs) from the cryptocurrency industry have invested heavily in the Ohio Senate race to support Moreno against Brown. As of September 27, 2024, PACs funded by Coinbase and Ripple Labs have invested $40 million to support Moreno, a massive expenditure that has allowed Moreno to quickly catch up to Brown in the polls, with some polls even showing Moreno in the lead.

RealClearPolitics polling data shows that Moreno (48%) is slightly ahead of Brown (46.3%) by about 1.7 percentage points, making the race still quite competitive.

Ron Hammond, Director of Government Relations at the Blockchain Association, stated in an interview with The Block that for the cryptocurrency industry, the Ohio Senate race may be the most important congressional seat election.

Considering Ohio's swing state status, if Moreno successfully defeats Brown, it would significantly increase the chances of the Republican Party holding a majority in the Senate. At that point, North Carolina Republican Senator Tim Scott is likely to succeed Brown as Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, and Scott has recently expressed support for cryptocurrency and attended the Nashville Bitcoin Conference.

Conversely, if Moreno fails to defeat Brown and the Democrats hold a majority in the Senate, then Brown is likely to remain in office, continuing his current stance and influence over cryptocurrency.

Of course, there are also two low-probability scenarios. The first is that the Republicans hold a majority in the Senate while Moreno loses; in this case, Scott could still potentially become Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee due to the Republican majority. The second scenario is that the Democrats hold a majority in the Senate while Moreno wins, at which point Massachusetts Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren is likely to succeed Brown, and Warren also opposes cryptocurrency.

In summary, Moreno's challenge to Brown is likely to determine the future of the Senate Banking Committee chairmanship. As long as Moreno secures Ohio, the Republicans will have a greater chance of gaining an advantage in the Senate, thereby ending Brown's high-pressure regulatory stance on cryptocurrency.

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