In the past two days, discussing anything else has become meaningless; everything will revolve around the election. Currently, the fluctuations in prices have almost no reference significance. The moment the election results are announced marks the beginning of the short-term victory or defeat. Without making predictions, let's talk about some questions that everyone might be interested in:

0⃣1⃣. When does the U.S. election start and when does it end?

Answer: The official voting for the U.S. election will occur at 1 PM Beijing time on November 5 (corresponding to midnight Eastern Time on November 5). Generally, each polling station is open for 12 hours, and the first round of voting will end at 7 AM Beijing time on Wednesday, November 6, 2024 (corresponding to 6 PM Eastern Time on November 5).

After that, the voting phase will basically end, but counting and announcing the results will take some time, which can range from several hours to several days, and there is no exact time for this.

0⃣2⃣. Where can I see the real-time voting process of the U.S. election?

Answer: Real-time updates are a bit difficult. As mentioned earlier, counting takes time, and it is impossible to know the results immediately after voting; we have to wait for the announcement. However, there are indeed many websites tracking election data. I personally recommend using the following two:

Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ELECTION/RESULTS/zjpqnemxwvx/

Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-us-election-results/

0⃣3⃣. Besides the presidential election, what else should we pay attention to during the election?

Answer: In addition to the presidential election, we should also pay attention to the congressional elections (Senate and House of Representatives). The deadline for the congressional elections coincides with the presidential election.

Senate elections: The U.S. Senate has a total of 100 seats, with each senator serving a 6-year term, and approximately one-third of the seats are up for election every two years. In the 2024 election, 34 Senate seats will be contested. These elections will determine the control of the Senate.

House of Representatives elections: The U.S. House of Representatives has a total of 435 seats, all of which are up for election every two years. Therefore, the 2024 election will re-elect all 435 members of the House.

0⃣4⃣. Why should we pay attention to congressional elections?

Answer:

A. Congress is the legislative body of the United States, and all federal laws must be passed by both the House and the Senate. Therefore, which party holds the majority in Congress directly affects whether important bills can be passed smoothly. (For example, many of Trump's promises cannot be fulfilled without support from Congress.)

B. Congress is responsible for overseeing the president and the executive branch, including budget approval and policy implementation review. Congress has the power to initiate investigations, which can check the president's power. If the president and Congress are controlled by different parties, it will create a stronger system of checks and balances.

PS: The House has the power to initiate impeachment of the president and other federal officials. If the president or other officials are suspected of illegal or improper conduct, the House can initiate impeachment proceedings. The Senate is responsible for conducting trials and making judgments.

C. Congress controls the formulation and approval of the federal budget, which has a decisive impact on government spending priorities, tax policies, and debt ceilings. If there are disagreements between the two chambers on the budget, it may affect government operations and even lead to a shutdown. (Every time there is a potential default on U.S. debt, it is often due to disputes between the two parties.)

PS: The House has the power to initiate financial bills and control the government budget, known as the "power of appropriation." All bills involving federal government spending and taxation must first be introduced in the House before being sent to the Senate for review.

D. The Senate has the power to approve international treaties and diplomatic appointments. The results of the Senate elections will affect the direction of foreign policy, especially regarding the U.S. role globally, foreign aid, military deployments, and trade policies. (For example, aid related to the Russia-Ukraine war.)

E. The Senate is responsible for confirming nominations for federal judges, including Supreme Court justices. Therefore, control of the Senate directly affects the composition of the federal judiciary and judicial policies.

PS: The chair of the SEC is nominated by the U.S. president and must undergo a Senate hearing and vote for confirmation. However, even the Senate cannot directly remove the current chair of the SEC. Although the chair is nominated by the president, the president can indeed remove the SEC chair, but only for "just cause," and cannot do so arbitrarily like cabinet members.

0⃣5⃣. Besides the presidential and congressional elections, are there other elections to pay attention to?

Answer: There are indeed some gubernatorial elections, but gubernatorial elections are relatively less critical, so a brief understanding is sufficient.

0⃣6⃣. When will the newly elected president and Congress take office after the election?

Answer: The newly elected president and congressional members will go through a transition period, during which the current government will hand over power to the elected officials. The transition period usually lasts until January 20, the presidential inauguration day. On January 20, the new president will take the oath of office.

0⃣7⃣. According to the U.S. Constitution and relevant legal mechanisms, if the newly elected president dies before January 20, the vice president will succeed. Does this mean Harris has two chances?

Answer: Not really. After the election, even if Harris does not win the presidency, she will no longer be the vice president. Each presidential candidate's running mate (the partner running in the election) is considered the vice president. Therefore, if the president dies before January 20, the vice president will succeed as the new president. For example, Trump's running mate is Pence.

0⃣8⃣. Will the election results be falsified?

Answer: To be honest, it is very difficult to falsify results. Both parties have very strict oversight mechanisms. There have indeed been concerns about "mail-in ballot" fraud, but systemic, large-scale mail-in ballot fraud is very rare in the U.S. In simple terms, the likelihood of being elected president of the United States through fraud is very low, and it cannot be ruled out as one of the protest methods of "losers."

PS: Occasionally, there may be individual violations with mail-in ballots, but due to the difficulty in scaling up, they cannot affect the election results.

0⃣9⃣. Will #BTC rise if Trump is elected? Is this correct?

Answer: From the current sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, there is indeed a lot of support for Trump on Twitter. There is a strong consensus indicating that if Trump is elected, it would positively impact the price of #Bitcoin, with a high probability of breaking new highs. After all, Trump has publicly supported cryptocurrencies and BTC and has made a series of commitments to ensure support for BTC after being elected, including:

A. Believing that BTC's value will exceed gold.

B. Planning to remove SEC Chair Gary.

C. Not supporting CBDC.

D. Making the U.S. a superpower in BTC.

E. Acknowledging that BTC will not threaten the dollar.

F. Lowering U.S. electricity prices to the lowest in the world to support BTC mining.

G. The U.S. government will no longer sell BTC it holds.

H. Using existing BTC as a strategic reserve.

PS: Trump has never said he would buy new BTC to become a strategic reserve.

So if Trump is elected, regardless of whether he can achieve the above, it will indeed create a positive expectation for the cryptocurrency market. However, this expectation is primarily based on #Bitcoin. Other cryptocurrencies may benefit, such as removing Gary, but it does not provide essential benefits. Therefore, Trump's election does have a high probability of stimulating the cryptocurrency market, especially the rise of BTC.

🔟. Will #BTC fall if Harris is elected? Is this correct?

Answer: Relatively speaking, Harris is likely to continue implementing the Democratic Party's regulatory policies on cryptocurrencies, which were in place during Biden's presidency, and she is not as aggressive as Trump. This may raise concerns among investors, leading to a decline in BTC prices.

In reality, this is indeed very likely, but it may only have a short-term effect. From a long-term perspective, the approval of #BTC and #ETH ETFs has occurred during Democratic administrations, especially the futures ETF, which was approved after Gary took office in 2021. The subsequent strengthening of SEC regulations was largely related to the bankruptcy of FTX. For the Democratic Party, political correctness is very important.

However, this does not mean that the Democratic Party disregards cryptocurrencies. During the period of indecision regarding the spot ETF, the Financial Committee has repeatedly questioned Gary, including members of the Democratic Party. Moreover, the cryptocurrency bill itself has been promoted by both parties. Therefore, if Harris is elected, there may indeed be a drop in sentiment leading to some investors exiting the market. However, in the long run, even the Democratic Party will adopt a more moderate approach to cryptocurrencies.

1⃣1⃣. If Trump is elected, will there be a Sell The News behavior, and will the positive news turn into negative?

Answer: If we translate Sell The News as "take profit," then I believe this situation will occur. However, the U.S. election does not produce a one-time positive outcome. As we mentioned earlier, Trump has many commitments, and these promises will gradually unfold during his term. Whether they can be realized is one thing, but the process is another. Therefore, the election results will not immediately turn into negative news; at least there will be a time extension.

From historical data, after each election, the risk market tends to continue rising for about three months. I believe this time will not be an exception, especially since there will be "presidential" commitments. Therefore, I think Sell The News and Buy The News may occur simultaneously. There may be some short-term fluctuations, but if Trump is indeed elected, there will be a better expectation.

1⃣2⃣. Is it enough to hold long-term, or are there short-term trading opportunities?

Answer: Let me say this: some friends say that opening a short position immediately after the election results are announced might be a good opportunity. After all, if Trump is elected, it will turn positive news into negative, and if Harris is elected, it will be directly negative, so they suggest opening a short position right after the election results.

I personally think this line of thought is incorrect and quite absurd.

Instead, I believe we need to act based on the results. If you must trade short-term, you can make judgments at the moment the election results are announced. Different candidates should have different strategies. Often, taking action at this time is akin to gambling. Spot trading may be better, but contracts, especially high-leverage contracts, carry significant risks.

1⃣3⃣. After the election, what else should we look forward to?

Answer: The election is just one factor in the cycle, and it may not even be the most important one. In terms of trends and cycles, we can foresee:

A. The impact of the #BTC halving cycle, which often occurs within the election timeframe.

B. FASB will officially take effect in December 2024.

C. The re-submission of SAB121 in 2025, which is expected to have a very high approval rate.

D. More importantly, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has shifted from tightening to easing.

These events are expected to occur in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. In fact, monetary policy itself is a continuous process, and an easing monetary policy will continuously enhance investors' risk appetite, significantly aiding liquidity in the market.

1⃣4⃣. If everything is so good, what should we be worried about?

Answer: The current expectations are based on the premise that the U.S. economy does not enter a recession. If the U.S. economy does enter a recession, it is very likely to lead to a large-scale pullback in the risk market. Potential triggers for a recession may include:

A. Rising unemployment rates.

B. Significant interest rate hikes in Japan.

C. Substantial inflation increases.

D. High interest rates triggering a black swan event.

E. Further escalation of war that draws the U.S. in.

These five points all indicate the potential for "trading recession," so it is not to say that Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year will be completely worry-free, as the premise is "peaceful times." If a recession or a black swan event truly occurs, it could directly change the market landscape, and the probability of an economic downturn triggered by high interest rates is still quite significant.

1⃣5⃣. Will the U.S. economy experience a hard landing, soft landing, or no landing?

Answer: Based on the current situation, there is a chance for a soft landing in the U.S., and the opportunity is not small. Historically, such situations have occurred. However, the judgment of a soft landing still depends on various data, including the PMI of manufacturing and services, inflation data, employment data, wage fluctuations, and other metrics. From the currently published data, there is a chance for a soft landing.

If a soft landing is indeed achieved, the benefit is that the economy may not collapse, but the result could likely be that this cycle will not see QE (quantitative easing), because historically, QE has been used by the Federal Reserve as a tool to quickly recover the economy and stabilize financial markets after a recession.

If the economy does not encounter problems, QE will naturally not be used.

1⃣6⃣. Will Trump's criminal cases affect his election?

Answer: Currently, Trump has four criminal cases awaiting resolution, which are:

A. New York "hush money" case: In May 2024, a Manhattan criminal court jury ruled that Trump paid $130,000 in hush money to adult film actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential election and falsified business records to cover it up, with all 34 felony charges being upheld. Sentencing was originally scheduled for July 11, 2024, but due to an appeal from Trump's legal team, the trial has been postponed, with a new sentencing date set for November 26, 2024.

B. Handling of classified documents case: Trump is accused of illegally retaining classified documents after leaving office and obstructing federal investigations. In June 2023, the special prosecutor filed 37 charges against him, including violations of the Espionage Act and obstruction of justice. On July 15, 2024, the judge overseeing the case ruled that the special prosecutor's appointment was unconstitutional, dismissing the case. The special prosecutor's office has appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit, and the outcome of the case is pending further review.

C. Interference in the 2020 election case: In August 2023, Trump was indicted by a federal grand jury for allegedly attempting to illegally overturn the results of the 2020 election and inciting the Capitol riot, facing four charges. The case is being handled by the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. In February 2024, the trial was paused, awaiting a Supreme Court decision on whether Trump enjoys immunity. On August 2, 2024, the case returned to the district court for a hearing consistent with the Supreme Court's ruling.

D. Georgia election interference case: In August 2023, a Fulton County grand jury in Georgia indicted Trump and 18 others for attempting to overturn the state's 2020 presidential election results. Trump faces 13 charges, including extortion and conspiracy to falsify documents. The case is currently under review.

As it stands, Trump will not have any case resolutions before the U.S. election, with the earliest hush money case set for November 26. Therefore, if Trump loses, he will inevitably face trial. However, if he wins the election, he will likely use presidential powers to suspend and/or dismiss the cases. Thus, these cases will not have any impact on the election.

1⃣7⃣. What will the trends of the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds look like after the election?

Answer:

A. For the U.S. dollar, if the new government pushes for larger fiscal stimulus plans, it may lead to a weakening of the dollar, as the market anticipates an increase in government deficits. Additionally, large-scale spending often exacerbates inflationary pressures, prompting the Federal Reserve to consider tighter monetary policies.

B. For U.S. Treasury bonds, if fiscal policy expands and inflation expectations rise, Treasury yields may increase. In particular, long-term Treasury yields may rise as investors anticipate increased government deficits and a heavier debt burden.

1⃣8⃣. Is it possible for the U.S. election to result in a tie?

Answer: Historically, there have been two instances of this. In reality, ties in U.S. presidential elections are very rare, but theoretically, it is possible. A tie in the election refers to the Electoral College voting results being 269 votes to 269 votes, as the outcome of the presidential election depends on the total Electoral College votes (538 votes), requiring at least 270 votes to win.

If a tie occurs, the process outlined in the Twelfth Amendment of the Constitution must be followed, where the U.S. House of Representatives elects the president, and the U.S. Senate elects the vice president.

If the House and Senate choose candidates from different parties for president and vice president, the U.S. may have a "bipartisan government," meaning the president and vice president come from different political parties.

1⃣9⃣. What has been the historical change in the risk market after elections?

Answer: There are many possibilities, but one of the most well-known is that "the sharper the decline before the election, the better the rise after the election."

The reasons are:

A. Before the election, the market is often filled with uncertainty, as investors are unclear about the election results and the new government's policy direction. The uncertainty in an election year may lead investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach or reduce their positions, causing the market to decline. Once the election results are determined, uncertainty decreases, and investors become more confident. Regardless of who is elected, the market typically welcomes a clear direction, driving stock prices up. Therefore, if there is a significant decline before the election, this emotional rebound may be stronger, resulting in a larger increase after the election.

B. After the election, the newly elected government usually proposes a series of policies, particularly fiscal stimulus, tax policies, or regulatory measures. These anticipated policies may boost market confidence, especially under the impetus of economic stimulus, tax cuts, or easing policies. If the market has significantly declined before the election due to uncertainty, the positive expectations brought by policies after the election may quickly translate into buying power, leading to a rebound.

C. Once the election results are confirmed, investors find it easier to reassess market direction and actively adjust their investment portfolios. This process is usually accompanied by a reflow of funds into the market, especially at the institutional investor level. The latter half of an election year typically sees cyclical economic stimulus policies aimed at supporting the new government's performance while boosting economic performance, thereby driving the market up.

The 19 points related to the election and its aftermath should be about it. If there are any new questions, feel free to leave a message, and I will continue to respond and add.

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