Today (November 4th), there is only one day left until the official voting in the U.S. presidential election, and the price of Bitcoin has been significantly affected on the eve of the election. Before the election, the price of Bitcoin surged above $73,000, but in the past two days, it has dropped sharply to $68,000. This significant price fluctuation reflects investors' sensitive reactions to Bitcoin's direction in the macroeconomic context.

The Election Enters a Heated Stage

Trump and Harris continue to vie for swing states. According to the latest polling data from November 3rd, the spending rates of Republican candidate Trump and Democratic candidate Harris are neck and neck nationwide, both at 49%.

However, market prediction tools like Polymarket indicate that Trump's probability of winning is greater than Harris's. According to the latest data today, Trump's probability of winning is 57.9%, while Harris's is 42.2%.

Image Source: Polymarket

Both candidates have criticized each other's policies. Trump has attacked Harris for allowing refugees to flood into the U.S., causing severe damage, and called her "the worst president and vice president." Harris criticized Trump's tariff policies, arguing that these policies burden the public's lives, especially the tariffs on everyday goods, which have made Americans pay a "Trump sales tax," increasing the cost of living.

Out of 538 electoral votes, 270 are needed to win the presidency. Most states use a "winner-takes-all" system, meaning the candidate with the most votes in a state will receive all of that state's electoral votes. As of November 3rd, over 70 million voters have already cast their ballots early.

Bitcoin Experiences Significant Volatility Due to the Election

Cryptocurrency has become an important topic in this election. Trump, who was once a critic of cryptocurrencies, has now transformed into a crypto-friendly candidate. He proposed establishing a national Bitcoin reserve and has adopted a more open attitude towards cryptocurrency holdings. This stance has attracted support from Silicon Valley and the crypto industry. Harris's position on cryptocurrency policy is somewhat ambiguous, but it is slightly more open compared to the Biden administration's strict regulatory stance. Her campaign team is working to improve relations with the crypto industry.

Overall, the crypto market shows great enthusiasm for Trump, especially in prediction markets. The prices of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are influenced by the election situation, leading to increased volatility.

Bitcoin rose by 9.6% in October, making it one of the better-performing assets, and there was an increase in demand for the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETF, with a total net inflow of $5.3 billion. Since mid-October, Bitcoin's price has surged above $73,000, but in the past two days, it has dropped sharply to $68,000. Before the election results are announced, Bitcoin is expected to continue fluctuating in both directions. If Trump wins, Bitcoin is likely to trend upward; otherwise, it may continue to correct.

According to the latest data from AICoin, the recent BTC candlestick chart shows price fluctuations at high levels, with certain upper and lower shadows, indicating fierce competition between bulls and bears in the market. After a series of consecutive bearish candles, there are signs of a slight rebound, but overall it remains within a downward channel. For specific details on BTC, you can check the AICoin app at https://www.aicoin.com/download.

Image Source: AICoin

Summary

The impact of the U.S. election on the Bitcoin market is multifaceted, leading to a significant increase in its volatility. Investors should closely monitor the election results and their potential impact on the market, and prepare appropriate risk management strategies.

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