Let's try to answer, it may not be correct, and I hope the experts can provide guidance.
After the non-farm payroll data was released, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points has strengthened, while the possibility of a 50 basis point cut is almost nonexistent. Although the unemployment rate has slightly increased, it is not enough to affect the Fed's monetary policy. Therefore, for those betting on an additional 75 basis points or more, it may be a failed gamble.
Even if the decline in non-farm payroll data is due to seasonal issues, the expectation of an economic recession has decreased, which means that investors' risk appetite will gradually increase. As a result, they may be willing to withdraw funds from low-risk, low-return U.S. Treasury bonds and enter the high-risk, high-return stock market.
The expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit is certainly not necessarily related to non-farm payrolls, but it can be observed that the long-term rise in U.S. Treasury bonds did not start today; it began on September 17. Today’s performance is just more pronounced. The increase in the U.S. government's budget deficit requires the issuance of more Treasury bonds to raise funds. The increase in supply leads to a decline in bond prices and a rise in yields. In fact, not only U.S. Treasury bonds but also the DXY index started to rise around this time.
Wage levels remain relatively high, which may mean that inflation cannot achieve the Federal Reserve's target of 2% within the expected timeframe. In fact, during the September meeting, Powell mentioned that while wages are not the main cause of inflation, the spiral increase in wages will still have a negative impact on inflation. Therefore, the Fed is willing to see a slight decline in wages, which is not necessarily aligned with the market's view. The market may believe that a decline in wages could indicate an economic downturn.
There are now a large number of hedge funds and some legendary figures expressing their intention to short U.S. Treasury bonds, which will have a significant impact on the bond market, and some investors may experience panic.
That's about it; there are some other scattered points, but some are not worth mentioning.
This post is sponsored by @ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With ApeX
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
