On the plane, I can't see all the data, only these published figures. I have to admire the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. First, the unemployment rate hasn't changed; the first pitfall has passed. A 4.1% unemployment rate is still quite good and within expectations. Moreover, the Federal Reserve has a tolerance level of 4.2% in 2024. In simple terms, the probability of a trading recession remains very low, and a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is still highly likely. So, just looking at the unemployment rate, it's good news for the market.

Secondly, the number of jobs added has been significantly revised down. Of course, we already knew this last month when there was a substantial increase, and this month shows a significant decrease. That's fine. If we look at the employment numbers alone, some may worry that such low employment data could lead to a trading recession. We need to wait for more detailed data to discuss that, but the fact that the unemployment rate hasn't increased and the labor participation rate has decreased indicates that the probability of market panic is low, making it highly likely that the Federal Reserve will maintain its established policies.

The decline in new jobs could have many reasons, and we don't need to get too hung up on it for now, as it could be influenced by climate and timing. Then there's wages; both of these figures are good, with annual and monthly rates the same as last month. The probability of recession continues to decrease, so overall, the data is quite decent. The only thing that needs close attention is the increase in the labor force, but it won't affect monetary policy.

Looking forward to the elections.

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