We have talked for a long time about trend trading and (cyclical) trading. The most important judgment is not the price changes of #BTC over one or two days, nor the fluctuations over ten or eight days. The key is to see what position we are currently in within the trend and under what circumstances in the cycle. If we are in a monetary easing cycle and there are cyclical events driving it, then active or rising liquidity, along with an increase in investors' risk appetite, will stimulate price increases; it’s just a matter of time.
Therefore, blindly predicting prices may cause us to miss some opportunities. For example, the election has not yet reached its climax, the power transition has not begun, the expected positive developments have not yet materialized, and monetary policy is gradually shifting from tightening to easing. All of these are part of the trend, and the election cycle, halving cycle, and interest rate cut cycle are not instantaneous but rather a timeline.
Recently, I have rarely posted purely data-related content because it is not very useful in the short term. This is no longer a time driven by emotions; rather, data represents more of the changes in emotions. Currently, emotions are centered around the election and earnings reports. Just like in December and January, no data is more important than news about the #BTC spot ETF, regardless of its truthfulness, as it will trigger emotional fluctuations rather than being driven by data.
The same is true now; the biggest influence is still on the election, followed by the six positive factors we have been discussing.
The impact of the election cycle on risk markets 📈
The impact of the halving cycle explosion on the market 📈
The impact of monetary policy shifting from tightening to easing on investors' risk appetite 📈
The impact of year-end FASB fair value accounting on listed companies 📈
The impact of the re-submission of SAB121 approval on BTCfi 📈
The impact of increasing funds flowing into the spot ETF on market purchasing power 📈
Of course, there are also negative factors.
Rising unemployment rate leading to trading recession 📉
Black swan events triggered by high interest rates 📉
Persistent inflation forcing the Federal Reserve to restart monetary tightening 📉
Although the election of the Democratic Party is favorable for BTC, it negatively affects the sentiment in the cryptocurrency industry 📉
Increased regulatory scrutiny on sensitive industries 📉
The escalation of war involving the United States 📉
So friends need to be very clear about their current position in the trend and cycle, which will allow for more accurate judgments about their investments, rather than just thinking that an increase means a bull market and a decrease means a bear market. It is also important to understand the current liquidity situation. In times of tight liquidity, more funds will definitely flow into safer and narrative-driven top assets. In the crypto space, a large amount of funds is still concentrated in BTC; other assets depend on whose narrative is the best, but most ALTs (altcoins) are not yet at the right time, and there is no rush.
You can either invest in "BTC" for relatively stable but lower returns, or engage in PVP.
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