The election countdown has begun, the monthly line has also closed, and the non-farm payrolls will be announced tonight. In a word, it's a tumultuous autumn; it's better to watch more and do less.
The plunge in the early hours of yesterday further validated my hypothesis that the election is not a good thing for the crypto world. Whether it's Harris or Trump, the U.S. stock market cannot withstand the turmoil. Currently, from the public information available, the drop in Bitcoin yesterday was due to Harris's winning probability surpassing Trump's. Mainstream media across the U.S., including Fox News under the Republican Party, have collectively turned optimistic about Harris. It must be said that Musk spending money to buy votes is no match for the shadowy forces at play.
Insight One:
From a deeper perspective, the reversal in winning probabilities leading to the decline in the crypto market is merely a surface phenomenon. This election is a life-and-death struggle. The financial oligarchs in the U.S. are polarized, and both sides are doing their utmost to support their respective candidates. For the Democrats, coming to power can protect the list of Lolita Island, allowing old capitalists like Gates to continue their revelry. For the Republicans, coming to power means settling accounts with domestic oligarchs and dismantling the military-industrial complex. Whether it's shootings or arson, regardless of who is behind it, we can clearly see that the struggle has no limits, and both sides are waiting to settle scores with each other.
Since it's a settlement, whoever comes to power means hostile capital will flee. For example, if Trump comes to power, Zuckerberg will flee; if Harris comes to power, Musk will flee. The most amusing part is that regardless of who runs, the optimal choice for both is to go to China. For the U.S. stock market, decline is an inevitable result. For the crypto market, with capital flowing out of the U.S. stock market, how can a bull market emerge? If you think that the hunter's deduction is just my personal opinion and not credible, then let me mention someone to back it up: Buffett. Historically, Buffett has cleared the stock market three times, and after each cash-out, the U.S. entered a Great Depression. Now that Buffett is repeating his previous actions, you may not believe my foresight, but what is the reason behind Buffett's actions?
Insight Two:
After the plunge in Bitcoin yesterday morning, there was an unusual phenomenon: the total liquidation across the network was less than 100 million, which is a stark contrast to the usual starting point of 1 billion. With the current price so high, the trading volume is very quiet. From this, we can see that people are more in a mindset of watching the excitement, while actual trading is not booming, and retail participation is very low. The reason is simple: the players in the market have all gone through a complete cycle of bull and bear, and there are basically no newcomers entering the market; everyone is quite calm. From the actual volatility rhythm, the crypto market is also highly controlled. The Asian and European sessions are basically stagnant, with volatility concentrated around the opening of Nasdaq. Currently, the situation in the crypto market is somewhat similar to a struggle for pricing power, mainly revolving around exchanges and capital institutions. When retail sentiment can no longer affect the crypto market, it naturally feels quiet.
However, from the perspective of institutions and exchanges, it is quite stimulating. The price seems unchanged, but the existing pie on the exchanges is being drained. In the game between capital and exchanges, if the price is not smashed to an absolute low point, the exchanges will be completely marginalized by the crypto market and replaced by U.S. stock ETFs. This is also why the hunter believes that the crypto market will not directly enter a bull market this year according to historical patterns.
Insight Three:
Do not think that after Bitcoin takes off, it will naturally trigger a season of altcoins. There aren't that many things that are taken for granted in this world. Bitcoin and altcoins are completely different species, and there is no necessary connection between them. The essence of the desire for an altcoin season is due to being trapped by altcoins and wanting to break free, or not having Bitcoin at all and wanting to gamble on the explosion of altcoins. The old method of "carving a boat to seek a sword" no longer works because the underlying logic and ecological environment have changed.
From a macro perspective, large funds will not play with altcoins because altcoins cannot deeply accommodate large funds. What large funds need is a sufficiently deep reservoir that allows them to enter and exit freely with good returns. Just look at how many altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin in this wave?
From a micro-logical standpoint, retail investors prefer to play with lower market cap, higher odds coins. This round of altcoins has not taken off at all, and VC coins are also losing enthusiasm; instead, meme coins are dominating. Just look at the coins recently listed on exchanges to see what is popular. Your altcoin has such a high market cap, yet the structure is so small, often pulling and dumping. Who the hell dares to play with you? In the past, the reason for playing with altcoins was that there weren't many choices. Now that the market has shifted from a seller's market to a buyer's market, what advantages do you still have? Additionally, there is a fatal flaw with altcoins themselves: they have been around for too long. No matter what track you are the leader of, your issuance time is too long. To put it bluntly, the concept of your altcoin is already outdated. Do you understand? If you now say you are the leader of DeFi, the leader of NFT, or the leader of GameFi, people will think you are foolish. Who still plays with such old concepts? We have all gone Trump, all gone MAGA, all gone ban; are you a primitive person?
A long issuance time means the dispersion of chips, which means increased difficulty in controlling the market, which means many trapped positions, which means inconsistent interests. Therefore, project parties dare not pull; once they pull, profit-taking positions will run to secure profits, and if they pull again, they will have to release trapped positions, and continuing to pull will mean losing money for the project parties. This is why altcoins often just pull once and then leak. If this underlying logic and ecological environment do not change, an altcoin season cannot happen. In summary, so-called altcoins are merely a product of the past when ICOs had just exploded, and the overall cryptocurrency market was wild and unregulated, resulting in a batch of relatively endorsed, more formal conceptual track coins. It was a product of that special era. Just like in 2019-2020, the entire crypto market was highly integrated with capital. Now, clinging to the concept of altcoins is essentially no different from clinging to the belief that PlusToken can still operate or believing that one can get rich through a micro-business model. That era has passed; you must admit that you have become cannon fodder of the times.
Finally, from the perspective of project parties: if I have money to pull you up, I might as well start a new altcoin. This way, I can hold two project chips with the same amount of money, which is more appealing, right? If I keep up with current events and use the money to incubate memes, guess how many coins I can issue?
From non-farm payrolls to the election, predicting the subsequent market trend—
From a cyclical perspective, this wave of decline aligns with the interests of both sides in the current market game (unfortunately, retail investors are the ones suffering). As the election approaches, if the market remains high, even if some people hope to use the election to fan the flames in the crypto market, it is very likely to backfire. A simple deduction shows that if the price remains around 74,000, pulling it up further would break the historical high, and the future market would be filled with unknowns and uncertainties. Pulling it up would not bring in more participants; if it directly declines, the market will interpret it as the election expectations materializing, turning bullish into bearish, easily transforming into panic.
The plunge in the early hours of yesterday at least pulled the market back to a comfortable range, with upward pressure at the top and support at the bottom, creating a space of 3,000-4,000 points. Within this space, it is easier for major institutions to control and manipulate market sentiment.
Combining the image drawn in the hunter's article on Tuesday, 68,800 is the neck pressure point for the daily W double bottom rebound. After breaking through, it accelerates upward, making this position a support level for a pullback. Today, Bitcoin also rebounded at 68,800, and it is still weakly oscillating around this support level. Therefore, tonight's non-farm payrolls will be focused on this point.
Before the non-farm data is released tonight, if the market remains unchanged and continues to oscillate around the 68,800 support, then even if it breaks below 68,800 after the data is released, do not chase shorts; wait for a pullback. If the market continues to decline tonight, it won't make it comfortable for those chasing shorts.
You can wait for a pullback to 70,200-70,500 to short, with a stop loss at 71,000. The logic for this short point is that the current rebound resistance point on the hourly chart is clearly at 69,700. If the market does not change in the afternoon, before the non-farm data is released, everyone will hope to place shorts at this position. If the major players want to force these short positions to stop loss, the market must be pulled to the stop loss point (at least 500 points). Thus, it can be concluded that tonight's Bitcoin market will be pulled above 70,200. The take profit target is the lower range of 66,500-66,000. Personally, I suggest reducing positions to withstand a wave of election volatility, aiming to catch the top. If you do not want to endure such volatility, then take profit at 66,500.
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