Daily Share
Originally, we expected that after Bitcoin's first 1-hour level rebound reached 72500, it would undergo a second 1-hour level correction, retracing to around 70000 or 69500. However, as the first 1-hour rebound touched 73620, which is very close to the historical high, I adjusted the expectation for the second 1-hour correction to the range of 70000 to 71000.
With a drop in the early morning, Bitcoin failed to hold above 70000 and fell to around 68830. It is clear that Bitcoin has broken below 69500, indicating a structural change in the short-term market and increasing the risk of further weakening. A critical level below is 68500; if this level is breached, it suggests a high probability that Bitcoin will transition to a 4-hour level correction or a daily level correction.
If it maintains above this level, there is still a chance to break through 73777. Why has the short-term market become somewhat uncertain? This is because the U.S. presidential election is approaching, leading to increased volatility. Originally, the U.S. election had little to do with the crypto space, but Trump previously declared that if he were elected president, he would support cryptocurrency trading, which would attract more funds into the crypto space, creating expectations for Bitcoin's short-term volatility.
In the early morning, the latest polls showed Harris slightly ahead of Trump by 1%, and Bitcoin began to decline further. It should be noted that most of the time, the market will move as it is meant to. Bitcoin's 1-hour level correction is unrelated to news; the market will follow through with the 1-hour correction as expected. However, the intensity of the decline is somewhat related to the news, as the news has accelerated the downward momentum rather than changed its direction. The cause-and-effect relationship cannot be reversed.
Interestingly, the U.S. election is not over yet, and the results will be announced on November 5. Before that, there is still a 10% chance that voters may change their minds, so Trump still has a chance of winning.
This means that if Bitcoin does not further break below 68500 in the next few days and coincidentally Trump surpasses Harris in the polls, Bitcoin could potentially make a V-shaped reversal. It can be confirmed that after this 1-hour level correction is completed, there will be a 1-hour level rebound. What is uncertain is that the strength of the rebound may vary due to news influence. If favorable news for Trump emerges in the next few days, the market may again make a V-shaped reversal above 73777. If unfavorable news for Trump arises, the rebound may be weak, followed by further declines.
BTC Mid to Long Term
Weekly:
On the weekly level, since Bitcoin recently broke through 70000, we are looking at a new wave of weekly level increases, with a target that could reach just above 100000. However, this does not mean Bitcoin will immediately surge to above 100000; there will still be a larger correction in between or some complex up-and-down fluctuations. The overall trend remains bullish, with expectations lasting until around May or June next year.
Daily:
On the daily level, we are currently in a daily level uptrend that started from 49000, and this daily uptrend is only 160 dollars away from breaking the historical high. We continue to observe, as there is still a chance for a short-term push to complete this daily level uptrend.
If the daily level uptrend breaks through 73777 but lacks strength, it is likely to undergo a daily level correction, with attention on 65000 below; if it breaks, watch for around 60000. After that, we can expect a third daily level uptrend, targeting above 90000 or even above 100000.
It can be imagined that the movements will be more complex, and the difficulty of operation will also be relatively high.
4H:
On the 4-hour level, we will see how it goes. If it can hold above 68500 in the short term, there will still be a chance to push up to 74000 to complete a 4-hour level rebound or a daily level rebound.
If it breaks below 68500 in the short term, the structure may turn into a complete 4-hour level rebound from 58946 to 73620, with the recent rise being an extension of the previous 4-hour rebound. In that case, it would undergo a 4-hour level correction back to above 65000, forming a third buy.
We can observe the specific situation further, focusing on the end position of the current 1-hour level decline and the strength of the 1-hour level rebound in the next two to three days.
BTC Short Term
Due to the rapid changes in the market, this article can only make predictions based on the market changes at the time of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes, which are merely for reference.
1H:
On the 1-hour level, we are currently undergoing a 1-hour level correction that started from 73620, and the intensity of this correction has indeed exceeded my expectations. I initially hoped the 1-hour correction would retrace to the 70000 to 71000 range, but it unexpectedly broke below 70000 to 68830, indicating that this market is quite difficult to predict. You can predict that it will decline from above 73000, but you cannot accurately predict where it will ultimately rebound.
Currently, there is a 1-hour level central point below; if the market can maintain above 68500, there should be a 1-hour level rebound in the next day or two. The strength of this 1-hour rebound can vary; if there is favorable news for Trump, it may directly make a V-shaped reversal to break through 73777. It is currently a critical point, but past market behavior tells us that sometimes a critical point can also be followed by another V-shaped reversal. If there is no favorable news, the 1-hour rebound may not reach 73620, possibly only slightly above 72000 or around 71000 for a second sell, followed by further declines.
Additionally, if the current 1-hour level decline cannot stabilize at 68500, the probability of the next 1-hour level rebound breaking through 73620 will be very low, even if there is favorable news, it is unlikely to rise too high.
15M:
On the 15-minute level, we are still undergoing this 1-hour level decline. In the short term, there may be a 15-minute level rebound; if the rebound is strong, it could reach the 70500 to 71000 range, while a weaker rebound might only be around 70200. Observing until around six or seven in the evening, after the rebound, there will still be a 15-minute level correction back to around 68800. If it can stabilize above 68500, there will still be a 1-hour level rebound.
ETH
Ethereum's correction has also greatly exceeded expectations. Even if there is favorable news in the short term, it may not directly make a V-shaped reversal to break through 2700. From an optimistic perspective, we still hope Ethereum can break above 2800. Therefore, if Ethereum can stabilize at 2450 in the short term, there is hope to build a central point and push up again; if it cannot stabilize, it will continue towards around 2300.
On the 15-minute level for Ethereum, there should be a chance to make a 15-minute level rebound, with attention on 2550. After the rebound, there will still be a 15-minute level decline to see if 2450 can hold.
Trend Direction
Weekly Level: Direction is upward, currently undergoing a new wave of weekly level increase, with an overall target of above 100000.
Daily Level: Direction is upward, potentially reaching around 75000.
4-Hour Level: Direction is upward, normally it should still go for another trip to 74000; if it breaks below 68500, it becomes uncertain.
1-Hour Level: Direction is downward, the 1-hour level has unexpectedly reached around 68800; in the short term, pay attention to the support at 68500; if it holds, look for a 1-hour rebound.
15-Minute Level: Direction is downward, expecting a 15-minute level rebound followed by another 15-minute level decline.
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The article is time-sensitive; please be aware of the risks. The views expressed are personal suggestions and for reference only!
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